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Primary economy: United States economic indicators

Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.
Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone
Cheap vol watchForecast batch: 8/7/26
Premium grade: 2026-08-07 05:09 UTC
^VIX carries a measurable expected travel range over the next 33 days — and the options market may not be paying full price for it. Sigmacast's calibrated band is sized from realized volatility and graded against every terminal close, with its containment rate audited across the last 15 forecasts. All three horizons are graded on the same premium scale — where each one landed is below.
Market-data read
^VIX reads range-bound — no clean directional character at any horizon (ER 0.80 / 0.26 / 0.11). Recent action is directionless chop rather than a trend. Term-structure band: ±12.2% / ±18.8% / ±28.9% (7/14/28d).
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Gross Domestic Product MoM (r=+0.99), All Car Sales (r=+0.94), Industrial Production YoY (r=+0.93), Consumer Confidence (r=+0.91), Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY (r=+0.91)
Inversely correlated: Trade Balance (r=-0.93), Inflation Expectations (r=-0.92), Inflation Rate YoY (r=-0.91)
As of August 8, 2026, ^VIX is trading at 14.90. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this index generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Market-data read
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is a market index covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The ^VIX index closed at 14.8800 on August 7, 2026, reflecting a decline of 2.49% from the previous close of 15.2600.
Over the past 30 days, the index has experienced a strong downtrend with a decline of 18.29%, ranging between 14.7700 and 20.5500. The price currently trades below its 20-day moving average of 17.1400. The 14-day RSI stands at 41.5, in neutral territory, indicating balanced momentum.
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 6.52%, reflecting heightened price variability for this index.
Daily-return volatility of 6.52% runs elevated for this index, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. ^VIX is currently trading 13.19% below its 20-day moving average. Its 14-day RSI reads 41.5, currently in neutral territory.
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Aug 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.