How much could ^VIX move?

^VIX has an expected move of roughly ±12.0% over 7 days, ±18.5% over 14 days, ±28.6% over 28 days — symmetric ranges around the current price derived from recent realized volatility. These are magnitude estimates, not directional predictions. ^VIX's recent path efficiency (ER) is 0.01 over the trailing 14 sessions, indicating a choppy, range-bound path.

CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Primary economy: United States economic indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.

CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone

Cheap vol watch

Forecast batch: 9/23/26

Premium grade: 2026-09-23 05:09 UTC

^VIX's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±12.0% over 7 days, widening to ±28.6% over 28. Options are currently pricing all three horizons below the band (VRP ≈ 0.71×) — premium screens cheap on this scale. All three horizons are graded on the same premium scale — where each one landed is below.

short-term trend: choppy · drifted down7d

7 Day^prov

± 12.0%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.54

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

7-day window · fewer obs, noisier

60/80/95 · ±12.0/18.3/29.5%

medium-term trend: choppy · flat14d

14 Day^prov

± 18.5%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.01

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±18.5/28.3/45.5%

long-term trend: choppy · flat28d

28 Day^prov

± 28.6%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.05

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±28.6/43.7/70.2%

Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)

Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)

8 correlated indicators

Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.

Positively correlated: Interest Rate Decision (r=+0.94), GDP Growth Rate QoQ (r=+0.92), Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY (r=+0.89)

Inversely correlated: Trade Balance (r=-0.94), CPI MoM (r=-0.91), Inflation Expectations (r=-0.90), Gross Domestic Product YoY (r=-0.89), Retail Sales MoM (r=-0.87)

^VIX

indices

Current Price

September 23, 2026

Market Closed

15.18

Actual

August 23, 2026

-3.19%

15.68

1 Month Ago

September 23, 2025

-12.51%

17.35

1 Year Ago

Upcoming Forecasts

View All Forecasts →

^VIX · INDICES

14-DAY FORECAST · 10/7/26

EXPECTED MOVE± 18.5%range 12.37 – 17.99 · 14D

Upper / lower bound17.99 / 12.37

Outside-range leveloutside 12.37 – 17.99price exits the expected band (either side)

Containment~60% (provisional)band hits its stated rate (backtest)

Term structure · expected move by horizon

Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.

Outcome legend

Magnitude · primary

How big was the move vs the forecast band?

+12.4%band-relative outcome efficiency

—efficiency not yet computed for this trade

Zone

Did price stay inside the expected band?

CONTAINEDentry price inside the expected band

BREACHED HIGHentry above the band's upper bound

BREACHED LOWentry below the band's lower bound

· · · Explore all 9 models across all timeframes on Sigmanomics · · ·

Signal Tracker Record / PerformancePast Performance →

Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.

SETUP

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is a market index covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The ^VIX index closed at 15.2300 on September 23, 2026, reflecting a gain of 6.65% from the previous close of 14.2800.

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

Over the past 30 days, the index has experienced a strong uptrend with a rally of 5.25%, ranging between 13.9300 and 18.9400. The price currently trades below its 20-day moving average of 15.6140. The 14-day RSI stands at 47.8, in neutral territory, indicating balanced momentum.

THE RISK

Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 6.11%, reflecting heightened price variability for this index. Across the past 52 weeks, the index has traded between 13.3800 and 31.8400, with the current price near the low end of that range.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Daily-return volatility of 6.11% runs elevated for this index, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. ^VIX is currently trading 2.46% below its 20-day moving average and sitting in the lower portion of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 47.8, currently in neutral territory.

Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Sep 2026.

Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.

Primary economy: United States economic indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone

Cheap vol watch

Forecast batch: 9/23/26

Premium grade: 2026-09-23 05:09 UTC

short-term trend: choppy · drifted down7d

7 Day^prov

± 12.0%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.54

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

7-day window · fewer obs, noisier

60/80/95 · ±12.0/18.3/29.5%

medium-term trend: choppy · flat14d

14 Day^prov

± 18.5%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.01

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±18.5/28.3/45.5%

long-term trend: choppy · flat28d

28 Day^prov

± 28.6%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.05

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±28.6/43.7/70.2%

Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)

Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)

8 correlated indicators

Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.

Positively correlated: Interest Rate Decision (r=+0.94), GDP Growth Rate QoQ (r=+0.92), Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY (r=+0.89)

Inversely correlated: Trade Balance (r=-0.94), CPI MoM (r=-0.91), Inflation Expectations (r=-0.90), Gross Domestic Product YoY (r=-0.89), Retail Sales MoM (r=-0.87)

^VIX

indices

Current Price

September 23, 2026

Market Closed

15.18

Actual

August 23, 2026

-3.19%

15.68

1 Month Ago

September 23, 2025

-12.51%

17.35

1 Year Ago

Upcoming Forecasts

View All Forecasts →

^VIX · INDICES

14-DAY FORECAST · 10/7/26

EXPECTED MOVE± 18.5%range 12.37 – 17.99 · 14D

Upper / lower bound17.99 / 12.37

Outside-range leveloutside 12.37 – 17.99price exits the expected band (either side)

Containment~60% (provisional)band hits its stated rate (backtest)

Term structure · expected move by horizon

Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.

Outcome legend

Magnitude · primary

How big was the move vs the forecast band?

+12.4%band-relative outcome efficiency

—efficiency not yet computed for this trade

Zone

Did price stay inside the expected band?

CONTAINEDentry price inside the expected band

BREACHED HIGHentry above the band's upper bound

BREACHED LOWentry below the band's lower bound

· · · Explore all 9 models across all timeframes on Sigmanomics · · ·

Signal Tracker Record / PerformancePast Performance →

Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Sep 2026.

Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.

CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

^VIX

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

^VIX

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

^VIX

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

→ SETUP

→ WHAT'S DRIVING IT

→ THE RISK

→ WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

^VIX

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

→ SETUP

→ WHAT'S DRIVING IT

→ THE RISK

→ WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT