What is the Dow Jones Industrial Average forecast?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) is forecasted using our adaptive model ensemble that generates 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day predictions with confidence intervals and expected zone analysis. View the latest Dow Jones Industrial Average forecast on this page.

What is the Dow Jones Industrial Average expected price range?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average expected move is estimated as a symmetric range around the current level across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, derived from recent realized volatility. These are magnitude estimates, not directional predictions — see the expected-move ranges on this page.

How accurate are Dow Jones Industrial Average predictions?

Sigmanomics tracks all forecast accuracy transparently. View median absolute error and zone-containment metrics for Dow Jones Industrial Average and all other instruments on our Performance page at sigmanomics.com/performance.

How much could ^DJI move?

^DJI has an expected move of roughly ±1.8% over 7 days, ±2.7% over 14 days, ±4.2% over 28 days — symmetric ranges around the current price derived from recent realized volatility. These are magnitude estimates, not directional predictions. ^DJI's recent path efficiency (ER) is 0.32 over the trailing 14 sessions, indicating a moderately trending path.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Primary economy: United States economic indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone

Cheap vol watch

Forecast batch: 8/7/26

Premium grade: 2026-08-07 05:09 UTC

^DJI's band is still building its audit record. Sigmacast's calibrated band is sized from realized volatility and graded against every terminal close as its audit record builds. Horizon grades appear as each one's history matures — current status is below.

Market-data read

^DJI reads range-bound — no clean directional character at any horizon (ER 0.68 / 0.32 / 0.19). Recent action is directionless chop rather than a trend. Term-structure band: ±1.8% / ±2.7% / ±4.2% (7/14/28d).

short-term trend: trending up7d

7 Day^prov

± 1.8%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.59

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

7-day window · fewer obs, noisier

60/80/95 · ±1.8/2.7/4.3%

medium-term trend: choppy · drifted up14d

14 Day^prov

± 2.7%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.32

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±2.7/4.1/6.6%

long-term trend: choppy · drifted up28d

28 Day^prov

± 4.2%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.18

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±4.2/6.4/10.2%

Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)

Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)

8 correlated indicators

Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.

Positively correlated: Gross Domestic Product MoM (r=+0.99), All Car Sales (r=+0.94), Industrial Production YoY (r=+0.93), Consumer Confidence (r=+0.91), Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY (r=+0.91)

Inversely correlated: Trade Balance (r=-0.93), Inflation Expectations (r=-0.92), Inflation Rate YoY (r=-0.91)

^DJI

indices

Current Price

August 07, 2026

Market Closed

54036.93

Actual

July 07, 2026

+3.23%

52346.91

1 Month Ago

August 07, 2025

+13.70%

47523.86

1 Year Ago

Upcoming Forecasts

View All Forecasts →

^DJI · INDICES

14-DAY FORECAST · 8/21/26

EXPECTED MOVE± 2.7%range 52576.94 – 55496.92 · 14D

Upper / lower bound55496.92 / 52576.94

Outside-range leveloutside 52576.94 – 55496.92price exits the expected band (either side)

Containment~60% (provisional)band hits its stated rate (backtest)

Term structure · expected move by horizon

Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.

Outcome legend

Magnitude · primary

How big was the move vs the forecast band?

+12.4%band-relative outcome efficiency

—efficiency not yet computed for this trade

Zone

Did price stay inside the expected band?

CONTAINEDentry price inside the expected band

BREACHED HIGHentry above the band's upper bound

BREACHED LOWentry below the band's lower bound

· · · Explore all 9 models across all timeframes on Sigmanomics · · ·

Signal Tracker Record / PerformancePast Performance →

Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.

Market-data read

SETUP

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) is a market index covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The ^DJI index closed at 54,033.73 on August 7, 2026, reflecting a gain of 0.31% from the previous close of 53,868.36.

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

Over the past 30 days, the index has experienced a modest uptrend with a rally of 4.08%, ranging between 51,542.06 and 54,742.19. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 52,665.13. The 14-day RSI stands at 63.1, in the upper part of its range.

THE RISK

Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.81%, reflecting subdued price variability for this index.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Daily-return volatility of 0.81% is subdued for this index, leaving recent ranges compressed — watch for a decisive break of the band as the more telling development. ^DJI is currently trading 2.60% above its 20-day moving average. Its 14-day RSI reads 63.1, currently in neutral territory.

Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Aug 2026.

Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.

Primary economy: United States economic indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone

Cheap vol watch

Forecast batch: 8/7/26

Premium grade: 2026-08-07 05:09 UTC

Market-data read

short-term trend: trending up7d

7 Day^prov

± 1.8%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.59

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

7-day window · fewer obs, noisier

60/80/95 · ±1.8/2.7/4.3%

medium-term trend: choppy · drifted up14d

14 Day^prov

± 2.7%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.32

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±2.7/4.1/6.6%

long-term trend: choppy · drifted up28d

28 Day^prov

± 4.2%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.18

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±4.2/6.4/10.2%

Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)

Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)

8 correlated indicators

Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.

Positively correlated: Gross Domestic Product MoM (r=+0.99), All Car Sales (r=+0.94), Industrial Production YoY (r=+0.93), Consumer Confidence (r=+0.91), Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY (r=+0.91)

Inversely correlated: Trade Balance (r=-0.93), Inflation Expectations (r=-0.92), Inflation Rate YoY (r=-0.91)

^DJI

indices

Current Price

August 07, 2026

Market Closed

54036.93

Actual

July 07, 2026

+3.23%

52346.91

1 Month Ago

August 07, 2025

+13.70%

47523.86

1 Year Ago

Upcoming Forecasts

View All Forecasts →

^DJI · INDICES

14-DAY FORECAST · 8/21/26

EXPECTED MOVE± 2.7%range 52576.94 – 55496.92 · 14D

Upper / lower bound55496.92 / 52576.94

Outside-range leveloutside 52576.94 – 55496.92price exits the expected band (either side)

Containment~60% (provisional)band hits its stated rate (backtest)

Term structure · expected move by horizon

Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.

Outcome legend

Magnitude · primary

How big was the move vs the forecast band?

+12.4%band-relative outcome efficiency

—efficiency not yet computed for this trade

Zone

Did price stay inside the expected band?

CONTAINEDentry price inside the expected band

BREACHED HIGHentry above the band's upper bound

BREACHED LOWentry below the band's lower bound

· · · Explore all 9 models across all timeframes on Sigmanomics · · ·

Signal Tracker Record / PerformancePast Performance →

Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.

Market-data read

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.81%, reflecting subdued price variability for this index.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Aug 2026.

Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

^DJI

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

^DJI

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

^DJI

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

→ SETUP

→ WHAT'S DRIVING IT

→ THE RISK

→ WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

^DJI

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

→ SETUP

→ WHAT'S DRIVING IT

→ THE RISK

→ WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT