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Primary economy: United States economic indicators

Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.
Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone
Forecast batch: 8/7/26
Premium grade: 2026-08-07 05:09 UTC
^GSPC's band is still building its audit record. Sigmacast's calibrated band is sized from realized volatility and graded against every terminal close as its audit record builds. Horizon grades appear as each one's history matures — current status is below.
Market-data read
^GSPC reads range-bound — no clean directional character at any horizon (ER 0.88 / 0.37 / 0.23). Recent action is directionless chop rather than a trend. Term-structure band: ±1.6% / ±2.5% / ±3.9% (7/14/28d).
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Gross Domestic Product MoM (r=+0.99), All Car Sales (r=+0.94), Industrial Production YoY (r=+0.93), Consumer Confidence (r=+0.91), Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY (r=+0.91)
Inversely correlated: Trade Balance (r=-0.93), Inflation Expectations (r=-0.92), Inflation Rate YoY (r=-0.91)
As of August 8, 2026, ^GSPC is trading at 7757.64. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this index generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Market-data read
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is a market index covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The ^GSPC index closed at 7,753.00 on August 7, 2026, reflecting a gain of 0.58% from the previous close of 7,708.40.
Over the past 30 days, the index has experienced a strong uptrend with a rally of 5.37%, ranging between 7,294.18 and 7,793.65. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 7,525.74. The 14-day RSI stands at 65.5, in the upper part of its range.
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.80%, reflecting subdued price variability for this index.
Daily-return volatility of 0.80% is subdued for this index, leaving recent ranges compressed — watch for a decisive break of the band as the more telling development. ^GSPC is currently trading 3.02% above its 20-day moving average. Its 14-day RSI reads 65.5, currently in neutral territory.
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Aug 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is a market-capitalization-weighted index of approximately 500 large US public companies, covering about 80% of US equity market capitalization. It is the most widely followed benchmark for US large-cap equity performance and the underlying reference for trillions of dollars of indexed and benchmarked assets. Index methodology is maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices.
The S&P 500 is driven by aggregate corporate earnings expectations, Federal Reserve policy and interest-rate path, sector composition shifts (technology weight currently dominant), macro data (jobs, CPI, GDP), and global risk sentiment. Mega-cap technology earnings (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta) carry outsized index-level influence.