What is the S&P 500 forecast?

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is forecasted using our adaptive model ensemble that generates 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day predictions with confidence intervals and expected zone analysis. View the latest S&P 500 forecast on this page.

What is the S&P 500 expected price range?

The S&P 500 expected move is estimated as a symmetric range around the current level across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, derived from recent realized volatility. These are magnitude estimates, not directional predictions — see the expected-move ranges on this page.

How accurate are S&P 500 predictions?

Sigmanomics tracks all forecast accuracy transparently. View median absolute error and zone-containment metrics for S&P 500 and all other instruments on our Performance page at sigmanomics.com/performance.

How much could ^GSPC move?

^GSPC has an expected move of roughly ±0.9% over 7 days, ±1.4% over 14 days, ±2.2% over 28 days — symmetric ranges around the current price derived from recent realized volatility. These are magnitude estimates, not directional predictions. ^GSPC's recent path efficiency (ER) is 0.06 over the trailing 14 sessions, indicating a choppy, range-bound path.

S&P 500 (^GSPC) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Primary economy: United States economic indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.

S&P 500 (^GSPC) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone

Forecast batch: 9/7/26

Premium grade: 2026-09-07 05:09 UTC

^GSPC's band carries a graded record, but its options premium is not being graded right now. Sigmacast's calibrated band is sized from realized volatility and graded against every terminal close, with its containment rate audited at each horizon over the trailing 30 days. Horizon grades return when the premium ladder is gradeable again — current status is below.

short-term trend: choppy · flat7d

7 Day^prov

± 0.9%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.05

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

7-day window · fewer obs, noisier

60/80/95 · ±0.9/1.4/2.3%

medium-term trend: choppy · flat14d

14 Day^prov

± 1.4%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.06

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±1.4/2.2/3.5%

long-term trend: choppy · drifted up28d

28 Day^prov

± 2.2%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.32

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±2.2/3.4/5.4%

Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)

Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)

8 correlated indicators

Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.

Positively correlated: Gross Domestic Product MoM (r=+0.99), Interest Rate Decision (r=+0.94), GDP Growth Rate QoQ (r=+0.92), BoE MPC Vote Cut (r=+0.91)

Inversely correlated: Trade Balance (r=-0.94), Inflation Rate YoY (r=-0.92), Inflation Expectations (r=-0.91), CPI MoM (r=-0.91)

^GSPC

indices

Current Price

September 08, 2026

Market Closed

7718.60

Actual

August 08, 2026

-0.27%

7739.33

1 Month Ago

September 08, 2025

+13.14%

6822.42

1 Year Ago

Upcoming Forecasts

View All Forecasts →

^GSPC · INDICES

14-DAY FORECAST · 9/22/26

EXPECTED MOVE± 1.4%range 7607.73 – 7829.47 · 14D

Upper / lower bound7829.47 / 7607.73

Outside-range leveloutside 7607.73 – 7829.47price exits the expected band (either side)

Containment~60% (provisional)band hits its stated rate (backtest)

Term structure · expected move by horizon

Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.

Outcome legend

Magnitude · primary

How big was the move vs the forecast band?

+12.4%band-relative outcome efficiency

—efficiency not yet computed for this trade

Zone

Did price stay inside the expected band?

CONTAINEDentry price inside the expected band

BREACHED HIGHentry above the band's upper bound

BREACHED LOWentry below the band's lower bound

· · · Explore all 9 models across all timeframes on Sigmanomics · · ·

Signal Tracker Record / PerformancePast Performance →

Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.

SETUP

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is a market index covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The ^GSPC index closed at 7,718.11 on September 4, 2026, reflecting a decline of 0.35% from the previous close of 7,745.59.

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

Over the past 30 days, the index has experienced a modest uptrend with a rally of 4.15%, ranging between 7,320.63 and 7,816.43. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 7,708.05. The 14-day RSI stands at 55.3, in neutral territory, indicating balanced momentum.

THE RISK

Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.73%, reflecting subdued price variability for this index. Across the past 52 weeks, the index has traded between 6,316.91 and 7,816.43, with the current price near the high end of that range.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Daily-return volatility of 0.73% is subdued for this index, leaving recent ranges compressed — watch for a decisive break of the band as the more telling development. ^GSPC is currently trading 0.13% above its 20-day moving average and sitting in the upper portion of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 55.3, currently in neutral territory.

Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Sep 2026.

Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.

About ^GSPC

COMPANY OVERVIEW

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is a market-capitalization-weighted index of approximately 500 large US public companies, covering about 80% of US equity market capitalization. It is the most widely followed benchmark for US large-cap equity performance and the underlying reference for trillions of dollars of indexed and benchmarked assets. Index methodology is maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices.

KEY FUNDAMENTALS

Methodology

Free-float market-cap weighted

Constituents

~500 US large-caps

Sponsor

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Inception

1957

WHAT MOVES ^GSPC

The S&P 500 is driven by aggregate corporate earnings expectations, Federal Reserve policy and interest-rate path, sector composition shifts (technology weight currently dominant), macro data (jobs, CPI, GDP), and global risk sentiment. Mega-cap technology earnings (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta) carry outsized index-level influence.

CATALYST CALENDAR

FOMC rate decision
8 per yearhigh
Earnings season
quarterlyhigh
US Nonfarm Payrolls
monthlyhigh
US CPI release
monthlyhigh

FAQ

How many companies are in the S&P 500?: Approximately 500 (the exact number can vary slightly due to dual-class share structures and corporate actions).
Is the S&P 500 the same as the Dow?: No. The S&P 500 is market-cap-weighted with ~500 constituents; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is price-weighted with 30 constituents.

Primary economy: United States economic indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone

Forecast batch: 9/7/26

Premium grade: 2026-09-07 05:09 UTC

short-term trend: choppy · flat7d

7 Day^prov

± 0.9%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.05

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

7-day window · fewer obs, noisier

60/80/95 · ±0.9/1.4/2.3%

medium-term trend: choppy · flat14d

14 Day^prov

± 1.4%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.06

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±1.4/2.2/3.5%

long-term trend: choppy · drifted up28d

28 Day^prov

± 2.2%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.32

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±2.2/3.4/5.4%

Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)

Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)

8 correlated indicators

Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.

Positively correlated: Gross Domestic Product MoM (r=+0.99), Interest Rate Decision (r=+0.94), GDP Growth Rate QoQ (r=+0.92), BoE MPC Vote Cut (r=+0.91)

Inversely correlated: Trade Balance (r=-0.94), Inflation Rate YoY (r=-0.92), Inflation Expectations (r=-0.91), CPI MoM (r=-0.91)

^GSPC

indices

Current Price

September 08, 2026

Market Closed

7718.60

Actual

August 08, 2026

-0.27%

7739.33

1 Month Ago

September 08, 2025

+13.14%

6822.42

1 Year Ago

Upcoming Forecasts

View All Forecasts →

^GSPC · INDICES

14-DAY FORECAST · 9/22/26

EXPECTED MOVE± 1.4%range 7607.73 – 7829.47 · 14D

Upper / lower bound7829.47 / 7607.73

Outside-range leveloutside 7607.73 – 7829.47price exits the expected band (either side)

Containment~60% (provisional)band hits its stated rate (backtest)

Term structure · expected move by horizon

Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.

Outcome legend

Magnitude · primary

How big was the move vs the forecast band?

+12.4%band-relative outcome efficiency

—efficiency not yet computed for this trade

Zone

Did price stay inside the expected band?

CONTAINEDentry price inside the expected band

BREACHED HIGHentry above the band's upper bound

BREACHED LOWentry below the band's lower bound

· · · Explore all 9 models across all timeframes on Sigmanomics · · ·

Signal Tracker Record / PerformancePast Performance →

Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Sep 2026.

Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.

About ^GSPC

COMPANY OVERVIEW

KEY FUNDAMENTALS

Methodology

Free-float market-cap weighted

Constituents

~500 US large-caps

Sponsor

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Inception

1957

WHAT MOVES ^GSPC

CATALYST CALENDAR

FOMC rate decision
8 per yearhigh
Earnings season
quarterlyhigh
US Nonfarm Payrolls
monthlyhigh
US CPI release
monthlyhigh

FAQ

How many companies are in the S&P 500?: Approximately 500 (the exact number can vary slightly due to dual-class share structures and corporate actions).
Is the S&P 500 the same as the Dow?: No. The S&P 500 is market-cap-weighted with ~500 constituents; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is price-weighted with 30 constituents.

S&P 500 (^GSPC) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

S&P 500 (^GSPC) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

^GSPC

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

About ^GSPC

COMPANY OVERVIEW

KEY FUNDAMENTALS

WHAT MOVES ^GSPC

CATALYST CALENDAR

FAQ

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

^GSPC

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

About ^GSPC

COMPANY OVERVIEW

KEY FUNDAMENTALS

WHAT MOVES ^GSPC

CATALYST CALENDAR

FAQ

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

S&P 500 (^GSPC) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

S&P 500 (^GSPC) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

^GSPC

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

→ SETUP

→ WHAT'S DRIVING IT

→ THE RISK

→ WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

About ^GSPC

→ COMPANY OVERVIEW

→ KEY FUNDAMENTALS

→ WHAT MOVES ^GSPC

→ CATALYST CALENDAR

→ FAQ

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

^GSPC

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

→ SETUP

→ WHAT'S DRIVING IT

→ THE RISK

→ WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

About ^GSPC

→ COMPANY OVERVIEW

→ KEY FUNDAMENTALS

→ WHAT MOVES ^GSPC

→ CATALYST CALENDAR

→ FAQ

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

COMPANY OVERVIEW

KEY FUNDAMENTALS

WHAT MOVES ^GSPC

CATALYST CALENDAR

FAQ

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

COMPANY OVERVIEW

KEY FUNDAMENTALS

WHAT MOVES ^GSPC

CATALYST CALENDAR

FAQ