S&P 500 (^GSPC) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis
^GSPC
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View All Forecasts →CPI (Nov 10) inside all horizons — premium not comparable to band.
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of graded forecast-days the 60% band held; its 95% interval counts independent windows only (n_eff, non-overlapping, stride = horizon) — per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no n_eff yet. Magnitude only, not a directional record.
6 of 7 models in band
± 3.79% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Timeframes diverge — no single coherent trend.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
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Suitability · premium context. Whether options are rich or cheap to own here — sizing input, not a price call.
^GSPC's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±2.5% over 7 days, widening to ±5.8% over 28.
Premium grade: 2026-11-08 05:09 UTC
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited · early record · 87.8% (82 forecast-days · n_eff=8 independent windows) · CI 53–98% · as of 7 Nov 2026 · n_eff as of 8 Nov 2026 → full record
Across 82 graded 14-day forecast-days since 11 Jun 2026 (8 independent windows), ^GSPC's expected-range band contained price 87.8% of the time (95% CI 53–98%; stated rate: 80%).
As of November 8, 2026, ^GSPC is trading at 7376.86. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this index generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
SETUP
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is a market index covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The ^GSPC index closed at 7,378.90 on November 6, 2026, reflecting a gain of 0.31% from the previous close of 7,355.84.
WHAT'S DRIVING IT
Over the past 30 days, the index has experienced a modest downtrend with a decline of 3.93%, ranging between 7,350.78 and 7,844.39. The price currently trades below its 20-day moving average of 7,656.96. The 14-day RSI stands at 35.3, in the lower part of its range.
THE RISK
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 1.08%, reflecting typical price variability for this index. Over the past 52 weeks, ^GSPC traded between 6,316.91 (Mar 30, 2026) and 7,844.39 (Oct 6, 2026); the current price sits 5.9% below the 52-week high.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT
Daily-return volatility of 1.08% runs elevated for this index, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. ^GSPC is currently trading 3.63% below its 20-day moving average and sitting in the middle of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 35.3, currently in neutral territory.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Gross Domestic Product MoM (SE) (r=+0.88), Interest Rate Decision (MX) (r=+0.86), New Passenger Car Registrations (UK) (r=+0.86), GDP Growth Rate YoY (RU) (r=+0.84)
Inversely correlated: CPI MoM (CA) (r=-0.91), Gross Domestic Product YoY (HU) (r=-0.89), Interest Rate Decision (AO) (r=-0.87), Manufacturing PMI (IT) (r=-0.87)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Nov 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.About ^GSPC
COMPANY OVERVIEW
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is a market-capitalization-weighted index of approximately 500 large US public companies, covering about 80% of US equity market capitalization. It is the most widely followed benchmark for US large-cap equity performance and the underlying reference for trillions of dollars of indexed and benchmarked assets. Index methodology is maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices.
KEY FUNDAMENTALS
WHAT MOVES ^GSPC
The S&P 500 is driven by aggregate corporate earnings expectations, Federal Reserve policy and interest-rate path, sector composition shifts (technology weight currently dominant), macro data (jobs, CPI, GDP), and global risk sentiment. Mega-cap technology earnings (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta) carry outsized index-level influence.
CATALYST CALENDAR
- FOMC rate decision8 per yearhigh
- Earnings seasonquarterlyhigh
- US Nonfarm Payrollsmonthlyhigh
- US CPI releasemonthlyhigh
FAQ
- How many companies are in the S&P 500?
- Approximately 500 (the exact number can vary slightly due to dual-class share structures and corporate actions).
- Is the S&P 500 the same as the Dow?
- No. The S&P 500 is market-cap-weighted with ~500 constituents; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is price-weighted with 30 constituents.
Related Pairs
Correlated Economic Indicators
Primary economy: United States economic indicators
