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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Ai Group Industry Index climbed to -3.5 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Australia Ai Group Industry Index climbed to -3.5 in August 2026, released September 2026, up 22.7 from July's -26.2 reading. The print exceeded the -32 consensus by 28.5. Ai Group Industry Index has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Ai Group Industry Index averaged -29.95, vs -24.83 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-3.5
Actual
-32
Consensus
-26.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.58
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -33.73
Actual: -3.5
Error: -30.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Ai Group Industry Index (Australia) was reported at -3.50 in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -32.00 by 28.50. The reading rose from the previous value of -26.20. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -16.70, ranging from -30.00 to -1.50 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -21.13, down from the prior three at -17.20. Volatility over the past year (σ 9.84) is higher than the prior year (σ 6.51). In September readings over the past 3 years, Ai Group Industry Index has averaged -14.23.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P/ASX 200 (Bearish S&P). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.58.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Sep 18) and RBA Hunter Speech (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Ai Group Industry Index - AU
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About Ai Group Industry Index — Australia
DEFINITION
The Ai Group Industry Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of various industries in the Australian economy. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the country's industrial sector, helping businesses and investors make informed decisions. The index is based on a comprehensive survey of businesses across different industries, making it a reliable and accurate measure of economic activity. With its timely and detailed data, the Ai Group Industry Index is a crucial tool for monitoring and analyzing the state of the Australian economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -3.5, consensus -32. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -29.9. Before that (Jun 2026): -30.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P/ASX 200 (Bearish S&P, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | AU | Westpac Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 01:00 | AU | Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |