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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Ai Group Industry Index fell to -26.5 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Australia Ai Group Industry Index fell to -26.5 in May 2026, released June 2026, down 1 from April's -25.5 reading. The reading missed the -24 consensus by 2.5. Ai Group Industry Index has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Ai Group Industry Index averaged -24, vs -6.9 in the prior 3-month window. Ai Group Industry Index is now the lowest in 18 months.
Latest Release
-26.5
Actual
-24
Consensus
-25.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.58
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -30.8
Actual: -26.5
Error: -4.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | INDEX | Bearish S&P | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Ai Group Industry Index (Australia) was reported at -26.50 in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -24.00 by 2.50. The reading fell from the previous value of -25.50. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -13.41, ranging from -26.50 to -1.50 across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -17.20, down from the prior three at -12.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.71) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.26). In June readings over the past 3 years, Ai Group Industry Index has averaged -26.37.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P/ASX 200 (Bearish S&P). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.58.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Ai Group Industry Index - AU
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About Ai Group Industry Index — Australia
DEFINITION
The Ai Group Industry Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of various industries in the Australian economy. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the country's industrial sector, helping businesses and investors make informed decisions. The index is based on a comprehensive survey of businesses across different industries, making it a reliable and accurate measure of economic activity. With its timely and detailed data, the Ai Group Industry Index is a crucial tool for monitoring and analyzing the state of the Australian economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -26.5, consensus -24. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -24.4. Before that (Mar 2026): -23.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P/ASX 200 (Bearish S&P, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.