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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Ai Group Industry Index climbed to -30 in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Australia Ai Group Industry Index climbed to -30 in June 2026, up 0.5 from May's -30.5 reading. The reading missed the -26 consensus by 4. Ai Group Industry Index has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Ai Group Industry Index averaged -25.45, vs -12.47 in the prior 3-month window. Ai Group Industry Index is now the lowest in 24 months.
Latest Release
-30
Actual
-26
Consensus
-30.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.58
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -27.25
Actual: -30
Error: +2.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Ai Group Industry Index (Australia) was reported at -30.00 in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -26.00 by 4.00. The reading rose from the previous value of -30.50. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -15.07, ranging from -30.00 to -1.50 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -26.70, down from the prior three at -8.77. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.85) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.11). In June readings over the past 3 years, Ai Group Industry Index has averaged -27.28.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/NZD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.58.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Jul 31) and Balance of Trade (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Ai Group Industry Index - AU
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About Ai Group Industry Index — Australia
DEFINITION
The Ai Group Industry Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of various industries in the Australian economy. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the country's industrial sector, helping businesses and investors make informed decisions. The index is based on a comprehensive survey of businesses across different industries, making it a reliable and accurate measure of economic activity. With its timely and detailed data, the Ai Group Industry Index is a crucial tool for monitoring and analyzing the state of the Australian economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -30, consensus -26. Prior reading (May 2026): -26.5. Before that (Apr 2026): -24.4.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | AU | Building Permits MoM | 7.2 | -1.6 | -1 | 0.90 | Medium |
| 01:30 | AU | Import Price Index QoQ | 5.7 | 0.1 | 0 | 2.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Building Permits YoY | 8.9 | 5.5 | -0.1 | 1.10 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Import Prices QoQ | 5.7 | 0.1 | 0 | 2.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Private House Approvals MoM | 0.4 | 2.8 | -1 | -0.38 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Export Prices QoQ | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.80 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | AU | Housing Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.6 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Producer Price Index QoQ | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 01:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.70 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.5 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.35 | Low |