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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Ai Group Industry Index fell to -24.2 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Australia Ai Group Industry Index fell to -24.2 in September 2026, released October 2026, down 22.6 from August's -1.6 reading. The reading missed the -4 consensus by 20.2. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -17.11. Over the past 3 months, Ai Group Industry Index averaged -16.7, vs -26.97 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 26th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-24.2
Actual
-4
Consensus
-1.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6.98
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.4
Actual: -24.2
Error: +26.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Ai Group Industry Index (Australia) was reported at -24.20 in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -4.00 by 20.20. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -17.52, ranging from -30.00 to -1.50 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -19.20, up from the prior three at -26.70. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.08) is higher than the prior year (σ 6.45). In October readings over the past 3 years, Ai Group Industry Index has averaged -17.57.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/NZD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6.98.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Building Permits MoM (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Ai Group Industry Index - AU
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About Ai Group Industry Index — Australia
DEFINITION
The Ai Group Industry Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of various industries in the Australian economy. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the country's industrial sector, helping businesses and investors make informed decisions. The index is based on a comprehensive survey of businesses across different industries, making it a reliable and accurate measure of economic activity. With its timely and detailed data, the Ai Group Industry Index is a crucial tool for monitoring and analyzing the state of the Australian economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -24.2, consensus -4. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -3.5. Before that (Jul 2026): -29.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.51) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Import Prices QoQ | -1.1 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.10 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Export Prices QoQ | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.35 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.32 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Housing Credit MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.43 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.57 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index QoQ | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.27 | Medium |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.55 | Low |