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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Employment Change fell to -15.8K in July 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
Australia Employment Change fell to -15.8K in July 2026, released August 2026, down 96.1K from June's 80.3K reading. The reading missed the 15K consensus by 30.8K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 17.45K. The reading is in the 17th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-15.8
Actual
15
Consensus
80.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±30.19 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 15
Actual: -15.8
Error: +30.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▼ Inverse | −0.91 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employment Change (Australia) was reported at -16 thousand in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 15 thousand by 31 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 80 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8 thousand, ranging from -21 thousand to 49 thousand across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5 thousand, down from the prior three at 13 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 26 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 35 thousand). In August readings over the past 3 years, Employment Change has averaged 22 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P/ASX 200 (Bearish S&P). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 30 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Sep 18) and RBA Hunter Speech (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Employment Change - AU
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About Employment Change — Australia
DEFINITION
Employment Change is a key economic indicator that measures the net change in the number of people employed in a given period of time. It provides valuable insights into the health of the job market and overall economic growth. A positive employment change indicates an increase in job opportunities, while a negative change suggests a decline in employment. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -15.8 K, consensus 15 K. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -18.6 K. Before that (Mar 2026): 17.9 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P/ASX 200 (Bearish S&P, r=-0.91) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | AU | Westpac Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 01:00 | AU | Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |