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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Employment Change fell to -39.3K in September 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased October 2026
Australia Employment Change fell to -39.3K in September 2026, released October 2026, down 68.6K from August's 29.3K reading. The reading missed the 20K consensus by 59.3K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 12.22K. Employment Change is now the lowest in 18 months.
Latest Release
-39.3
Actual
20
Consensus
29.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±30.19 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 17.18
Actual: -39.3
Error: +56.47
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▼ Inverse | −0.88 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employment Change (Australia) was reported at -39 thousand in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 20 thousand by 59 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 29 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7 thousand, ranging from -39 thousand to 49 thousand across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -5 thousand, down from the prior three at 16 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 32 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 34 thousand). In October readings over the past 3 years, Employment Change has averaged 13 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P/ASX 200 (Bearish S&P). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/NZD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 30 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Building Permits MoM (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Employment Change - AU
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About Employment Change — Australia
DEFINITION
Employment Change is a key economic indicator that measures the net change in the number of people employed in a given period of time. It provides valuable insights into the health of the job market and overall economic growth. A positive employment change indicates an increase in job opportunities, while a negative change suggests a decline in employment. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -39.3 K, consensus 20 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 39.5 K. Before that (Jul 2026): -15.8 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P/ASX 200 (Bearish S&P, r=-0.88) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Import Prices QoQ | -1.1 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.10 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Export Prices QoQ | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.35 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.32 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Housing Credit MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.43 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.57 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index QoQ | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.27 | Medium |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.55 | Low |