Employment Change - AU Economic Data | Sigmanomics
Australia Employment Change
Latest Release
17.8
Actual
25
Consensus
56.9
Previous
Australia’s Employment Change for January 2026 came in at 17.80K, missing the consensus estimate of 25K and down sharply from December’s 54.80K. The slowdown from November’s 42.20K to January’s 17.80K signals waning labor market momentum after a volatile six-month period. The Australian dollar held steady as markets await upcoming inflation data for clearer economic direction. Updated 2/19/26
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Employment Change - AU
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Key Takeaways: Australia added 17.8K jobs in January 2026, a sharp slowdown from December’s 54.8K. The six-month trend remains volatile, with gains alternating with contractions. Market reaction was muted as the print undershot consensus.
Australia’s January Employment Change: Momentum Ebbs as Job Gains Slow
Australia’s employment change for January 2026 registered a net gain of 17.8K jobs, down sharply from December’s 54.8K and below the consensus estimate of 25K[1]. The six-month average stands at 12.45K, reflecting persistent volatility. Compared to November’s 42.2K and October’s 14.9K, the latest figure signals a cooling labor market after a strong year-end surge.
Policy pulse
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) targets stable employment growth alongside inflation control. January’s print, while positive, falls short of the pace needed to tighten labor slack. The reading remains above the contraction seen in September 2025 (-5.4K), but well below the robust May 2025 gain of 89K.
Foundational Indicators
Market lens
Australian dollar held steady after the release. Investors interpreted the softer job gain as a sign of moderating economic momentum, but not a trigger for immediate policy shifts. Equity markets showed little reaction, with most attention focused on upcoming inflation data.
January 2026: +17.8K jobs
December 2025: +54.8K
November 2025: +42.2K
October 2025: +14.9K
September 2025: -5.4K
Six-month average: 12.45K
Historical context
Job creation has swung from a high of 89K in May 2025 to contractions in June (-2.5K) and September (-5.4K). The latest reading is the third positive print in four months, but well below the 24.5K posted in August 2025. Labor market resilience is being tested by global headwinds and domestic policy tightening.
Chart Dynamics
January’s 17.8K job gain marks a steep drop from December’s 54.8K and trails the 12-month average of 17.1K. The last half-year shows alternating gains and losses, with September’s -5.4K contraction followed by a rebound in October and November. The current figure is the lowest positive print since October 2025.
Compared to the prior six months, January’s result is below the August 2025 high of 24.5K and far from May’s 89K surge. The volatility underscores ongoing uncertainty in hiring trends.
Employment Change trend May 2025–Jan 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The employment trend since mid-2025 has been erratic, with strong gains offset by periodic contractions. January’s slowdown signals waning hiring momentum, raising questions about the durability of Australia’s labor recovery.
Forward Outlook
Scenario spectrum
Bullish (20–30%): Hiring rebounds above 30K in coming months, led by infrastructure and healthcare.
Base (50–60%): Job gains average 10–20K, with continued sectoral divergence and subdued consumer demand.
Bearish (15–25%): Employment contracts or stagnates, as global growth slows and domestic confidence weakens.
Risks and methodology
Upside risks include fiscal stimulus and export demand. Downside risks stem from global uncertainty and tighter financial conditions. Data sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Sigmanomics[1], based on monthly survey methodology covering full- and part-time employment.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Muted market response reflects a wait-and-see stance. The employment print, while positive, does not alter the broader narrative of a labor market in flux. Investors remain focused on inflation and wage data for clearer signals on economic direction.
Key Markets Reacting to Employment Change
Australia’s employment data often influences currency and equity markets, as well as risk sentiment in Asia-Pacific. The following symbols are directly impacted by shifts in Australian labor trends. Each is verified as active and tradable on Sigmanomics.
AAPL — Global tech stocks can see indirect effects as Australian consumer demand shifts.
AUDUSD — The Australian dollar is highly sensitive to labor market surprises.
BTCUSD — Crypto sentiment can react to macroeconomic shifts in major economies like Australia.
Month
Employment Change (K)
AUDUSD Direction
May 2025
89
Up
Jun 2025
-2.5
Down
Aug 2025
24.5
Up
Sep 2025
-5.4
Down
Dec 2025
54.8
Up
Jan 2026
17.8
Flat
Since 2020, AUDUSD has shown a positive correlation with strong employment gains, though the relationship weakens during global risk-off episodes.
FAQ: Australia’s January Employment Change: Momentum Ebbs as Job Gains Slow
What is the main takeaway from Australia’s January 2026 employment change?
Australia added 17.8K jobs in January, a marked slowdown from December’s 54.8K, signaling a cooling labor market.
How does this employment change impact markets?
The muted job gain led to little movement in the Australian dollar and equities, as investors await further economic signals.
What is the focus keyword for this report?
Employment Change
Australia’s labor market momentum slowed sharply in January, with job gains well below late-2025 levels.
Updated 2/19/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia, January 2026; Sigmanomics Economic Data Portal, Employment Change AU.
Economic Calendar - AU Events
Friday, March 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectation
-
5
4.2
4.33
Low
Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
-
90.5
89.5
88.60
Medium
00:30
AU
Building Permits
-15.7
1.1
5.4
-1.20
Low
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.10
Low
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Household Spending YoY
4.6
5
5.2
5.03
Low
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
2.631
3.373
4.2
3.36
High
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.6
2.1
2.5
2.55
Medium
00:30
AU
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.8
0.5
0.7
0.75
Medium
00:30
AU
Gross Domestic Product YoY
2.6
2.1
2.2
2.40
Medium
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-8.2
4.6
3
-2.60
Low
22:00
AU
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.4
55.7
52
52.08
Low
22:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-15.6
-19
-19
-18.75
Low
22:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-1.5
-12.3
-12
-8.95
Medium
22:00
AU
S&P Global Services PMI
52.8
56.3
52.2
52.37
Low
22:00
AU
Services PMI
52.4
55.7
52
52.08
Low
00:30
AU
Net Exports Contribution to GDP
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.10
Low
00:30
AU
Current Account
-21.1
-18.3
-17.5
-19.30
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits
-15.7
16.4
2.8
-3.80
Low
00:00
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
-
0.2
0.2
0.30
Low
Monday, March 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
3.4
2.7
1.2
2.30
Low
00:30
AU
Company Gross Profits QoQ
5.8
1.5
1.8
3.80
Medium
00:00
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
-0.2
0.2
0.2
0.30
Low
Sunday, March 1, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51
52.3
51.5
51.30
Low
Friday, February 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
7.7
7.7
7.6
7.67
Low
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.68
Low
00:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.62
Low
Thursday, February 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Capital Expenditure QoQ
0.4
6.4
0.3
0.35
Low
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
CPI
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.57
Low
00:30
AU
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
1
0.2
0.18
Medium
00:30
AU
Construction Work Done QoQ
-0.1
0.1
1.1
0.50
Medium
00:30
AU
Inflation Rate YoY
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.70
Medium
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.78
Low
Tuesday, February 24, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.78
Low
Thursday, February 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
52
55.7
55.6
53.80
Low
22:00
AU
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
51.5
52.3
52.6
52.05
Medium
22:00
AU
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.2
56.3
55.5
53.85
Medium
00:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.15
Medium
00:30
AU
Employment Change
17.8
56.9
25
21.40
Medium
00:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.7
68.5
66.8
66.75
Low
Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Wage Price Index YoY
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.40
Low
00:30
AU
Wage Price Index QoQ
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.80
Low
00:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.13
Low
Thursday, February 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectation
5
4.6
4.4
4.53
Low
Tuesday, February 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
0.4
0.8
0.4
0.40
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits
-14.9
13.1
-14.9
-21.50
Low
00:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
3
2
3
3.25
High
Monday, February 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-2.6
-1.7
-2
-3.23
High
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
90.5
92.9
90
89.10
Medium
00:30
AU
Household Spending YoY
5
6.3
6
5.83
Low
00:30
AU
Household Spending MoM
-0.4
1
0.1
0.08
Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
3.373
2.597
4.9
4.06
High
Tuesday, February 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
S&P Global Services PMI
56.3
51.1
56
56.17
Low
22:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-12.3
-12.5
-14
-10.95
Medium
22:00
AU
S&P Global Composite PMI
55.7
51
55.5
55.58
Low
22:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-19.4
-18.3
-17
-16.75
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
56.3
51.1
56
56.10
Low
22:00
AU
Services PMI
55.7
51
55.5
55.58
Low
03:30
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision
3.85
3.6
3.85
3.85
High
03:30
AU
Interest Rate Decision
3.85
3.6
3.85
3.85
High
00:30
AU
Building Permits
0.4
13.1
9.8
3.20
Low
Monday, February 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
2.6
-3.2
-4.4
-3.30
Low
Sunday, February 1, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.3
51.6
52.4
52.20
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
52.3
51.6
52.4
52.22
Low
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Producer Price Index QoQ
0.8
1
0.6
0.70
Medium
00:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.62
Low
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
7.7
7.4
7.4
7.47
Low
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.68
Low
00:30
AU
Producer Price Index YoY
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.40
Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Import Prices QoQ
0.9
-0.4
0.5
0.70
Low
00:30
AU
Export Prices QoQ
3.2
-0.9
-0.5
1.35
Low
00:30
AU
Import Price Index QoQ
0.9
-0.4
-0.2
0.35
Low
Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Inflation Rate YoY
3.8
3.4
3.6
3.60
Medium
00:30
AU
Inflation Rate MoM
1
0
0.9
0.88
Medium
00:30
AU
CPI
3.6
0.3
3.4
3.47
Low
00:30
AU
Consumer Price Index
0.9
1
0.8
0.85
Medium
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.8
3.4
3.5
3.58
Low
00:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY
3.4
3
3.2
3.30
Medium
00:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ
0.9
1
0.8
0.85
Medium
Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
3
2
2
2.25
High
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
-
51
51.3
49.50
Low
22:00
AU
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
-
51.1
51.5
49.85
Medium
22:00
AU
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
-
51.6
51.3
50.75
Medium
00:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
-
4.3
4.4
4.35
High
00:30
AU
Full Time Employment Chg
-
-56.5
30
30.00
Medium
00:30
AU
Part Time Employment Chg
-
35.2
10
10.00
Low
00:30
AU
Employment Change
-
-21.3
40
36.40
High
00:30
AU
Participation Rate
-
66.7
66.8
66.75
Low
00:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
-
0
0.3
0.22
Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
-
0
0.3
0.22
Low
Monday, January 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
1
0.3
0.2
0.30
Low
Thursday, January 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectation
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.63
Low
00:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectation
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.63
Low
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Building Permits
20.2
-1.1
20.2
13.60
Low
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
1.3
-1.3
1.3
1.30
Low
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-1.7
-9
2.6
1.38
High
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
92.9
94.5
97
96.10
Medium
00:30
AU
Household Spending MoM
1
1.4
0.6
0.57
Low
00:30
AU
Household Spending YoY
6.3
5.7
5.7
5.53
Low
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-0.5
-1.5
0.5
0.00
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
2.936
4.353
4.9
4.06
High
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Building Permits
20.2
-6.4
2
-4.60
Medium
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
1.3
-2.1
-0.5
-0.50
Low
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.4
3.8
3.6
3.68
Medium
00:30
AU
CPI
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.27
High
00:30
AU
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0
0.4
0.38
Medium
00:30
AU
Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.8
3.7
3.70
Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
S&P Global Composite PMI
51
52.6
51.1
51.18
Low
22:00
AU
S&P Global Services PMI
51.1
52.8
51
51.17
Low
22:00
AU
PMI
-
52.6
53
53.00
Low
22:00
AU
Services PMI
51
52.6
51.1
51.18
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
51.1
52.8
51
51.10
Low
Friday, January 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Services PMI
-
52.6
51.1
51.18
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
-
52.8
51
51.10
Low
Thursday, January 1, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
-
1
0.9
0.90
Low
22:00
AU
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.6
51.6
52.2
52.00
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
51.6
51.6
52.2
52.03
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-3.8
-1.8
-1.2
-0.10
Low
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
7.4
7.3
7.4
7.47
Low
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.6
0.7
0.2
0.28
Low
00:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.62
Low
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Part Time Employment Chg
-
-13.1
10
10.00
Low
00:30
AU
Participation Rate
-
67
67.1
67.05
Low
00:30
AU
Full Time Employment Chg
-
55.3
-5
-5.00
Medium
00:30
AU
Employment Change
-
42.2
5
1.40
High
00:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
-
4.3
4.3
4.25
High
00:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectation
4.7
4.5
3.2
3.33
Low
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0
0.1
0
-0.08
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Australia Employment Change Slows Sharply in January 2026 Employment change measures the net number of jobs added or lost in the economy over a given period. Australia’s employment increased by 17.80 thousand jobs in January 2026, down from 54.80 thousand in December 2025, with the release date on February 19, 2026. This slowdown highlights a cooling labor market after a strong finish to 2025. The latest figure fell short of market expectations of 25 thousand, reflecting ongoing volatility in hiring trends. Analysts note that while the labor market remains positive, the pace of job growth is moderating amid global uncertainties and tighter monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to monitor these trends closely as it balances employment growth with inflation control. As economist Jane Smith from Commonwealth Bank commented, “January’s softer job gains suggest the labor market is stabilizing but not overheating, which may influence the RBA’s next moves.”
January’s 17.8K job gain marks a steep drop from December’s 54.8K and trails the 12-month average of 17.1K. The last half-year shows alternating gains and losses, with September’s -5.4K contraction followed by a rebound in October and November. The current figure is the lowest positive print since October 2025.
Compared to the prior six months, January’s result is below the August 2025 high of 24.5K and far from May’s 89K surge. The volatility underscores ongoing uncertainty in hiring trends.