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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Employment Change fell to -18.6K in April 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
Australia Employment Change fell to -18.6K in April 2026, released May 2026, down 41.9K from March's 23.3K reading. The reading missed the 17.5K consensus by 36.1K. Employment Change has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Employment Change averaged 33.4K, vs -1.75K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 11th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-18.6
Actual
17.5
Consensus
23.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±28.98 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 31.8
Actual: -18.6
Error: +50.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▼ Inverse | −0.93 | INDEX | Bearish S&P | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employment Change (Australia) was reported at -19 thousand in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 18 thousand by 36 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 23 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10 thousand, ranging from -21 thousand to 49 thousand across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 16 thousand, up from the prior three at 12 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 23 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 34 thousand). In May readings over the past 3 years, Employment Change has averaged 36 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P/ASX 200 (Bearish S&P). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 29 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Employment Change - AU
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About Employment Change — Australia
DEFINITION
Employment Change is a key economic indicator that measures the net change in the number of people employed in a given period of time. It provides valuable insights into the health of the job market and overall economic growth. A positive employment change indicates an increase in job opportunities, while a negative change suggests a decline in employment. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -18.6 K, consensus 17.5 K. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 17.9 K. Before that (Feb 2026): 48.9 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P/ASX 200 (Bearish S&P, r=-0.93) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.