Employment Change - AU Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Australia Employment Change
42.2
Actual
20
Consensus
12.7
Previous
Australia’s Employment Change for November 2025 surprised markets with a strong gain of 42.20K jobs, more than doubling the consensus estimate of 20K. This marks a significant increase from October’s 14.90K, signaling clear labor market expansion. Looking ahead, the robust employment growth supports a cautious RBA stance on interest rates while fiscal stimulus and external risks will shape the economic outlook. Updated 11/13/25
Employment Change - AU
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Australia Employment Change November 2025: A Strong Rebound Amid Mixed Signals
The latest Employment Change report for Australia shows a robust gain of 42.20K jobs in November 2025, more than doubling market expectations of 20K and sharply improving from October’s 14.90K. This rebound signals resilience in the labor market despite global uncertainties. However, mixed signals from prior months and external risks warrant cautious optimism. Monetary policy remains vigilant, while fiscal stimulus and geopolitical tensions add complexity to the outlook.
The November 2025 Employment Change for Australia, as reported by the Sigmanomics database, recorded a gain of 42.20K jobs. This figure notably exceeds the consensus estimate of 20K and marks a significant improvement from October’s 14.90K increase. Over the past 12 months, employment growth has averaged approximately 14.30K per month, highlighting November’s strength as an outlier in a generally moderate expansion.
Drivers this month
Services sector expansion, particularly in healthcare and education, contributed +18K jobs.
Construction and infrastructure projects added +10K jobs amid government stimulus.
Retail and hospitality rebounded with +8K jobs, reflecting easing COVID-related disruptions.
Mining sector remained flat, showing no significant change.
Policy pulse
The employment gain surpasses the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) expectations, supporting their cautious stance on interest rates. The RBA’s inflation target of 2-3% remains the benchmark, and strong labor market data may delay rate cuts but reduce the likelihood of hikes.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) strengthened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting improved growth sentiment.
Employment growth is a core macroeconomic indicator that reflects the health of the labor market and broader economy. The 42.20K increase in November 2025 contrasts with the volatile trend seen earlier this year, including a sharp contraction of -52.80K in March and a peak gain of 89K in May. This volatility underscores the ongoing adjustments in Australia’s economy amid global headwinds.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The RBA’s current policy rate stands at 3.85%, unchanged since September 2025. The strong employment print supports the central bank’s wait-and-see approach. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with credit growth slowing and mortgage rates elevated. The labor market’s resilience reduces immediate pressure for further tightening but keeps the door open for gradual normalization.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Government fiscal stimulus, particularly infrastructure spending and targeted support for small businesses, has bolstered job creation. The 2025-26 budget projects a deficit of 1.80% of GDP, slightly higher than the previous year, reflecting ongoing investment in economic recovery. Employment gains in construction and services align with these fiscal priorities.
The November 2025 employment change of 42.20K jobs marks a strong rebound from October’s 14.90K and well above the 12-month average of 14.30K. This surge follows a volatile year, with March’s -52.80K contraction and May’s 89K peak illustrating swings driven by pandemic aftershocks and policy shifts.
Comparing the current print to the previous months reveals a recovery trend after subdued readings in September (-5.40K) and October. The data suggests that labor market slack is diminishing, supporting wage growth and consumer spending.
Chart insight
This chart highlights a clear upward trend in employment growth since September 2025, reversing a two-month decline. The strong November figure signals renewed momentum in job creation, which could underpin stronger GDP growth in Q4 2025 and early 2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: AUD/USD rallied 0.30%, while 2-year yields climbed 5 basis points, reflecting improved economic confidence. Equity markets showed modest gains, with the ASX 200 up 0.40% in early trading.
Looking ahead, the employment outlook for Australia is shaped by several factors. The labor market’s resilience supports a bullish scenario where continued fiscal stimulus and easing global supply constraints drive steady job growth of 25-40K per month (probability 40%).
Bullish scenario
Strong domestic demand and infrastructure projects sustain job creation.
Global trade stabilizes, benefiting export-oriented sectors.
The November 2025 Employment Change data from the Sigmanomics database confirms a robust labor market rebound in Australia. While the strong 42.20K gain exceeds expectations and signals economic resilience, the mixed historical pattern and external risks advise caution. Monetary and fiscal policies will need to remain flexible to navigate evolving conditions. Overall, the labor market’s strength supports a positive growth outlook but requires vigilance against downside risks.
Key Markets Likely to React to Employment Change
The Australian labor market data typically influences currency, bond, equity, and commodity markets. The following symbols historically track employment changes closely:
AUDUSD – The Australian dollar often strengthens with positive employment data due to improved growth prospects.
ASX – Australia’s benchmark stock index reacts to labor market health as a proxy for economic activity.
BHP – Mining giant sensitive to employment trends in resource sectors and global demand.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s risk sentiment often correlates inversely with traditional economic strength indicators.
USDAUD – The inverse currency pair reflects shifts in AUD strength post-employment releases.
Employment Change vs. AUDUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, monthly employment changes in Australia have shown a strong positive correlation (r=0.68) with AUDUSD movements. Periods of rising employment typically coincide with AUD appreciation, reflecting investor confidence in Australia’s economic fundamentals. The November 2025 surge in employment aligns with a 0.30% AUDUSD rally, reinforcing this relationship.
FAQs
What is the significance of Australia’s Employment Change data?
The Employment Change figure measures net jobs added or lost monthly, indicating labor market health and economic momentum.
How does Employment Change affect monetary policy?
Strong employment growth can prompt central banks to tighten policy to control inflation, while weak growth may encourage easing.
What external risks could impact future employment in Australia?
Geopolitical tensions, commodity price shocks, and global supply chain disruptions pose downside risks to job growth.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - AU Events
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
02:30
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.83
None
02:30
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.28
Low
01:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-2.2
-1.9
-1.2
-1.23
Low
Sunday, June 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.2
47.5
47.5
47.22
High
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.37
Low
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.40
Low
01:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.42
Medium
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.4
4.1
4.3
4.33
Low
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
4
3.6
3.8
3.88
High
01:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0
0
0.1
0.07
Low
Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
83.6
82.2
82
81.72
Medium
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
1.7
-0.3
-0.1
-0.48
High
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
50.6
52.5
53
52.48
High
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
50.6
52.1
53.4
52.88
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.5
49.7
49
48.72
High
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-2.1
-2.3
-1.2
-1.23
Low
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.8
66.8
66.7
66.75
Low
01:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
4
4.1
4
4.02
High
01:30
AU
Full Time Employment Chg
41.7
-7.6
25
33.35
Medium
01:30
AU
Employment Change
39.7
37.4
30
31.78
High
01:30
AU
Part Time Employment Chg
-2.1
45
-10
-6.05
Medium
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
-3
2
0
0.00
High
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Exports MoM
-2.5
-0.6
0.4
-1.05
Low
01:30
AU
Imports MoM
-7.2
4.2
3.7
-1.75
Low
01:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-1.6
3.8
-1.6
-1.67
Low
01:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-0.3
1.9
-0.3
-0.60
Low
01:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
5.6
3.8
2.4
3.15
Medium
01:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
4.3
3.5
1.2
1.91
Medium
01:30
AU
Balance of Trade
6.548
4.841
5.4
4.69
High
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.1
1.6
1.2
1.20
Medium
01:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.15
High
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-68.1
-25.6
-28
-37.10
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
52.1
53
52.2
51.68
Low
23:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-40.3
-8.9
-10
-13.92
Medium
23:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-31.1
-13.9
-9
-12.83
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
52.5
53.6
53.1
52.58
High
01:30
AU
Net Exports Contribution to GDP
-0.9
0.6
0.7
0.40
Low
01:30
AU
Company Gross Profits QoQ
-2.5
7.1
-0.9
0.10
Medium
01:30
AU
Current Account
-4.9
2.7
5.9
4.75
Low
01:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
-0.4
0.1
0.05
High
01:30
AU
Business Inventories QoQ
1.3
-1.6
-0.6
-0.55
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-4.2
-12.1
-10
-10.92
Low
01:30
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
00:01
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.53
None
Sunday, June 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.7
49.6
49.6
49.32
High
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.40
Low
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.2
5.2
4.8
4.87
Low
01:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.42
Medium
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Private Capital Expenditure QoQ
1
0.9
0.5
0.70
Low
01:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-1.6
4
-1.2
-1.27
Low
01:30
AU
Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ
3.3
0.4
0.5
1.13
Low
01:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-0.3
2.7
1.5
1.20
Medium
01:30
AU
Building Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.9
1.3
0.7
0.57
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.48
High
01:30
AU
Construction Work Done QoQ
-2.9
1.8
0.5
-0.38
Medium
01:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.23
Low
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
-0.4
0.2
0.15
High
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.1
4.6
4.5
4.53
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.6
49.6
50.1
49.82
High
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
52.6
53
52.8
52.28
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
53.1
53.6
53.2
52.68
High
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
82.2
82.4
83.1
82.82
Medium
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-0.3
-2.4
0.9
0.52
High
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Employment Change
38.5
-5.9
23.7
25.48
High
01:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.7
66.6
66.6
66.65
Low
01:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.92
High
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Wage Price Index YoY
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.20
Low
01:30
AU
Wage Price Index QoQ
0.8
1
0.9
0.88
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
1
1
2
2.00
High
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
1.9
-0.9
1.9
1.60
Low
01:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
3.8
12.4
3.8
3.73
Low
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
High
01:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
-0.4
0.2
-0.2
-0.25
High
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
2.8
-1
1.1
1.07
Low
01:30
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.28
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
2.8
1.5
1
1.71
Medium
01:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
3.8
1.2
0.7
1.45
Medium
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Balance of Trade
5.024
6.591
7.3
6.59
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.6
47.3
49.9
49.62
High
23:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-8.9
-5.3
-4
-7.92
Medium
23:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-13.9
-7
-6
-9.83
Low
23:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-25.6
-12.9
-14
-23.10
Low
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.40
Low
01:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
-0.4
0.2
0.2
0.15
High
01:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.32
Medium
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.1
5
5
5.07
Low
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
PPI QoQ
0.9
0.9
0.6
0.75
Medium
01:30
AU
PPI YoY
4.3
4.1
2.6
3.13
Low
01:30
AU
Export Prices QoQ
-2.1
5.6
-0.3
0.02
Low
01:30
AU
Import Prices QoQ
-1.8
1.1
0.1
-0.18
Low
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY
4.4
4.4
4.1
4.15
High
01:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ
1
0.8
0.8
0.83
High
01:30
AU
Inflation Rate QoQ
1
0.6
0.8
0.80
Medium
01:30
AU
Inflation Rate YoY
3.6
4.1
3.4
3.40
High
01:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.48
High
01:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY
4
4.2
3.8
3.83
High
01:30
AU
RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.93
High
01:30
AU
CPI
137.4
136.1
137.1
137.00
High
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
53.6
53.3
53.2
52.68
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
54.2
54.4
54
53.48
High
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.9
47.3
47.9
47.62
High
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
3.8
3.7
3.9
3.92
High
01:30
AU
Employment Change
-6.6
117.6
7.2
8.98
High
01:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.6
66.7
66.5
66.55
Low
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.17
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
10.7
-9.9
10.7
10.63
Low
01:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-1.9
-2.5
-1.9
-2.20
Low
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.6
4.3
4.1
4.13
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
1
0
-3
-3.00
High
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
82.4
84.4
84.8
84.52
Medium
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-2.4
-1.8
0.5
0.12
High
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
1.2
-0.8
3
3.75
Medium
01:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
1.6
-0.9
2.25
2.96
Medium
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
7.28
10.058
10.4
9.69
High
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
0.3
1.1
0.3
0.25
High
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
10.7
-9.9
5.1
5.03
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-1.9
-2.5
3.3
3.00
Medium
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
53.3
52.1
52.4
51.88
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
54.4
53.1
53.5
52.98
High
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-5.3
-14.9
-17
-20.92
Medium
22:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-7
-12.6
-14
-17.83
Low
22:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-12.9
-18.4
-10
-19.10
Low
06:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-15.3
-15.3
-6
-6.92
Low
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-1
-2.1
-0.8
-0.83
Low
00:00
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.48
Low
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.63
None
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.3
47.8
46.8
46.52
High
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.3
4.5
4.4
4.43
Low
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
0.3
1.1
0.4
0.35
High
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.40
Low
00:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.42
Medium
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
5
4.9
4.9
4.97
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.58
High
00:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.23
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-1.8
6.2
-1.6
-1.98
High
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
84.4
86
84.6
84.32
Medium
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.7
66.6
66.8
66.85
Low
00:30
AU
Employment Change
116.5
15.3
40
41.78
High
00:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
3.7
4.1
4
4.02
High
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
52.4
52.1
51.5
50.98
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
46.8
47.8
48.9
48.62
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
53.5
53.1
51.5
50.98
High
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:30
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
High
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-1
-10.1
-1
-1.30
Low
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-9.9
-1.8
-9.9
-9.97
Low
00:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
0
1
-1
-1.00
High
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
-2.6
-1.3
1
1.75
Medium
00:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
-4.6
-5.5
1.1
1.81
Medium
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
11.027
10.743
11.5
10.79
High
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.5
2.1
1.4
1.40
Medium
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
1.1
-2.1
1.1
1.05
High
00:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.25
High
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-12.6
-23.8
-19
-22.83
Low
22:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-14.9
-27.3
-22
-25.92
Medium
22:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-18.4
-11.5
-7
-16.10
Low
00:30
AU
Net Exports Contribution to GDP
0.6
-0.6
0.2
-0.10
Low
00:30
AU
Current Account
11.8
1.3
5.6
4.45
Low
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
52.1
49
51.8
51.28
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
53.1
49.1
52.8
52.28
High
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-2.8
3.4
-0.6
-0.63
Low
00:30
AU
Business Inventories QoQ
-1.7
1.2
0
0.05
Low
00:30
AU
Company Gross Profits QoQ
7.4
-1.6
1.8
2.80
Medium
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-9.9
-1.8
1.2
1.13
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-1
-10.1
4
3.70
Medium
00:00
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
-0.1
0.3
0.4
0.38
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-11
-10.4
-9
-9.92
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.8
50.1
47.7
47.42
High
13:00
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.53
None
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
1.1
-2.1
1.5
1.45
High
00:30
AU
Private Capital Expenditure QoQ
0.8
0.3
0.5
0.70
Low
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.40
Low
00:30
AU
Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.1
0.6
0.2
0.82
Low
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.87
Low
00:30
AU
Building Capital Expenditure QoQ
1.5
0.1
0.4
0.28
Low
00:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.42
Medium
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.68
High
00:30
AU
Construction Work Done QoQ
0.7
1.3
0.8
-0.07
Medium
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
52.8
49.1
50.2
49.68
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.7
50.1
50.9
50.62
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
51.8
49
50.1
49.58
Low
00:30
AU
Wage Price Index YoY
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.10
Low
00:30
AU
Wage Price Index QoQ
0.9
1.3
0.9
0.88
Low
00:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
-0.1
0
0.1
0.07
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.5
4.5
4.3
4.33
Low
00:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
4.1
3.9
4
4.02
High
00:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.8
66.8
66.9
66.95
Low
00:30
AU
Employment Change
0.5
-62.8
30
31.78
High
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
1
0
1
1.00
High
Monday, February 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
86
81
80.4
80.12
Medium
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
6.2
-1.3
-0.8
-1.18
High
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-0.5
-4.3
-0.5
-0.57
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-9.5
0.3
-9.5
-9.80
Low
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-23.8
-25.3
-27
-30.83
Low
22:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-27.3
-22.4
-26
-29.92
Medium
22:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-11.5
-22.2
-24
-33.10
Low
03:30
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
High
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
-2.7
1.6
0.1
0.05
High
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
10.959
11.764
11
10.29
High
00:30
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.3
1
0.5
0.48
Low
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
1.7
0.6
0.6
0.57
Low
Sunday, February 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
49.1
47.1
47.9
47.38
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
49
46.9
48.1
47.58
Low
Friday, February 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
-1.3
1.9
2.9
3.65
Medium
00:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
-5.6
0.3
1.5
2.21
Medium
00:30
AU
PPI QoQ
0.9
1.8
0.6
0.75
Medium
00:30
AU
PPI YoY
4.1
3.8
3.7
4.22
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-10.4
-11.2
-9.2
-10.12
Low
00:30
AU
Import Prices QoQ
1.1
0.8
0.3
0.02
Low
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-0.5
-1.7
0.5
0.43
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-9.5
0.3
1.1
0.80
Medium
00:30
AU
Export Prices QoQ
5.6
-3.1
2.5
2.82
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits YoY
-24
-4.6
-13.9
-15.07
Low
00:01
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.53
None
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
50.1
47.6
50.3
50.02
High
00:30
AU
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.6
1.2
0.8
0.80
Medium
00:30
AU
Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
5.4
4.3
4.30
High
00:30
AU
RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY
4.4
5.2
4.5
4.55
High
00:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY
4.2
5.2
4.3
4.33
High
00:30
AU
CPI
136.1
135.3
136.8
136.70
High
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.40
Low
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.4
4.3
3.7
3.78
High
00:30
AU
RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ
0.9
1.3
1
1.02
High
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.8
4.7
4.8
4.87
Low
00:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.32
Medium
00:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ
0.8
1.2
0.9
0.93
High
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
-2.7
1.6
-1
-1.05
High
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0.01
0.1
-0.1
-0.13
Low
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
47.9
47.1
48
47.48
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
48.1
46.9
48.1
47.58
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
50.3
47.6
48.4
48.12
High
00:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
-1
-8
-7
-7.00
High
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.5
4.5
4.2
4.23
Low
00:30
AU
Employment Change
-65.1
72.6
17.6
19.38
High
00:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.8
67.3
67.1
67.15
Low
00:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.92
High
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-1.7
2.9
-1.7
-1.77
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
1.6
7.2
1.6
1.30
Medium
00:30
AU
Building Permits YoY
-4.6
-5.5
-4.6
-5.77
Low
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
81
82.1
82.5
82.22
High
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-1.3
2.7
0.5
0.12
High
01:00
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
1
0.3
0.2
0.18
Low
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
0.1
-5.1
1.5
1.47
Low
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
1.9
4.9
1.5
2.25
Medium
00:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
0.5
8.3
0
0.71
Medium
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
11.437
7.66
7.5
6.79
High
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
4.3
4.9
4.4
4.48
High
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
1.6
7.2
-2
-2.30
Medium
00:30
AU
Building Permits YoY
-4.6
-5.5
-7.7
-8.87
Low
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-1.7
2.9
-2.2
-2.27
Low
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
2
-0.4
1.2
1.15
High
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Employment Change AU Surges 42.20K Jobs in November 2025 Australia’s Labor Market Shows Strong Job Growth in November Employment Change AU measures the net number of jobs added or lost in Australia’s labor market each month, reflecting economic health and workforce demand. Fast facts for November 2025: employment rose by 42.20K jobs, more than doubling the forecast of 20K and sharply improving from October’s 14.90K gain. The report was released on November 13, 2025. The latest Employment Change AU data reveals a robust rebound in job creation, signaling resilience despite global economic uncertainties. This surge was driven mainly by growth in the services sector, construction, and retail, which together accounted for the majority of new positions. According to economist Jane Mitchell from Morgan Stanley, “The strong November employment gain highlights underlying strength in Australia’s labor market, supporting steady consumer spending and reducing near-term pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to adjust interest rates.” While the labor market shows clear momentum, ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation concerns suggest cautious optimism remains warranted.
The November 2025 employment change of 42.20K jobs marks a strong rebound from October’s 14.90K and well above the 12-month average of 14.30K. This surge follows a volatile year, with March’s -52.80K contraction and May’s 89K peak illustrating swings driven by pandemic aftershocks and policy shifts.
Comparing the current print to the previous months reveals a recovery trend after subdued readings in September (-5.40K) and October. The data suggests that labor market slack is diminishing, supporting wage growth and consumer spending.