Gross Domestic Product Yoy - AU Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Australia Gross Domestic Product YoY
2.1
Actual
2.2
Consensus
2
Previous
Australia’s Gross Domestic Product YoY growth for December 2025 came in at 2.10%, slightly missing the 2.20% estimate but up from 1.80% in September, indicating ongoing economic expansion. This 0.30 percentage point increase signals a steady recovery phase supported by resilient services and commodity sectors. Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance amid moderate inflation and external risks. Updated 12/3/25
Gross Domestic Product Yoy - AU
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Listen to: Australia Gross Domestic Product YoY
Australia’s Latest GDP YoY Growth: A Data-Driven Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) YoY growth rose to 2.10% in December 2025, surpassing the prior 1.80% but slightly below the 2.20% estimate. This marks a steady recovery from early 2025’s 1.30% readings. Monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative amid moderate inflation. External risks from geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility persist. Financial markets showed muted initial reactions, reflecting balanced sentiment. Structural trends suggest a gradual shift towards services and technology sectors, supporting long-term growth. Bullish, base, and bearish scenarios outline a 20%, 60%, and 20% probability respectively, emphasizing cautious optimism.
Australia’s GDP YoY growth for December 2025 came in at 2.10%, up from 1.80% in September and well above the 1.30% recorded in both March and June 2025, according to the Sigmanomics database. This steady upward trend signals a resilient economic recovery despite global headwinds. The 2.10% actual figure, while slightly below the 2.20% consensus estimate, reflects underlying strength in domestic demand and export sectors.
Drivers this month
Services sector expansion contributed approximately 0.90 percentage points (pp) to growth.
Commodity exports added 0.60 pp, buoyed by higher iron ore and LNG prices.
Construction activity remained stable, contributing 0.30 pp.
Consumer spending growth moderated, subtracting 0.20 pp due to cautious household sentiment.
Policy pulse
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained its cash rate at 3.50%, balancing inflation control with growth support. The 2.10% GDP growth aligns with the RBA’s inflation target range of 2–3%, suggesting no immediate need for tightening. However, the central bank signals vigilance against inflationary pressures from wage growth and supply chain disruptions.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The AUD/USD pair edged up 0.15% post-release, reflecting mild optimism. Australian 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, indicating modest inflation expectations. Breakeven inflation rates held steady near 2.30%, underscoring market confidence in the RBA’s policy stance.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide a fuller picture of Australia’s economic health. The unemployment rate remains low at 3.80%, down from 4.10% a year ago, supporting consumer spending. Inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stands at 2.70% YoY, slightly above the RBA’s midpoint target but showing signs of moderation from 3.10% earlier in 2025.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
Financial conditions remain accommodative with stable credit growth of 4.50% YoY. The RBA’s forward guidance emphasizes data dependency, with inflation and wage growth as key metrics. The Australian dollar’s moderate appreciation has helped contain imported inflation, while mortgage rates have stabilized following earlier hikes.
Fiscal policy & government budget
The federal budget projects a modest deficit of 1.20% of GDP for FY2025-26, focusing on infrastructure investment and social spending. Fiscal stimulus remains targeted, avoiding overheating risks. Government debt stands at 38% of GDP, manageable relative to historical averages.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Australia faces ongoing risks from China’s economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region. Commodity price volatility, especially in coal and natural gas, adds uncertainty. However, trade diversification efforts and new free trade agreements mitigate some external vulnerabilities.
The December 2025 GDP YoY growth of 2.10% outpaces the 1.80% recorded in September and significantly exceeds the 1.30% average for the first half of 2025. This upward trajectory reflects a rebound in both domestic consumption and export sectors. The 12-month average GDP growth now stands at approximately 1.63%, indicating a sustained recovery phase.
Comparing quarterly growth rates, Q4 2025 saw a 0.50% increase, up from 0.40% in Q3, signaling accelerating momentum. The services sector’s expansion, particularly in finance and healthcare, drove much of this improvement. Meanwhile, commodity exports benefited from stronger global demand and price stabilization.
This chart highlights Australia’s economic recovery gaining traction after a slow start in early 2025. The steady climb in GDP growth suggests resilience amid external shocks and cautious fiscal policy. The trend points to a potential return to pre-pandemic growth levels by mid-2026 if current conditions persist.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Australian equities, represented by the ASX200, rose 0.30% within the first hour, reflecting investor confidence in growth prospects. The AUDUSD currency pair strengthened modestly, while bond yields edged higher, signaling balanced optimism.
Looking ahead, Australia’s GDP growth trajectory depends on several key factors. The baseline forecast anticipates 2.30% YoY growth for 2026, supported by stable domestic demand and export recovery. However, risks remain from inflationary pressures and external shocks.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
Global commodity prices rise, boosting export revenues.
Inflation remains contained, allowing for steady monetary policy.
Fiscal stimulus accelerates infrastructure and innovation investments.
GDP growth exceeds 3%, driven by strong consumer and business confidence.
Base scenario (60% probability)
Moderate inflation and steady RBA policy maintain growth near 2.30%.
Export demand stabilizes amid global uncertainties.
GDP growth falls below 1.50%, risking recessionary pressures.
Australia’s December 2025 GDP YoY growth of 2.10% signals a steady economic recovery, supported by resilient services and commodity sectors. Monetary and fiscal policies remain calibrated to sustain growth while managing inflation risks. External uncertainties and geopolitical tensions pose downside risks, but structural shifts towards technology and services offer long-term growth potential.
Financial markets have responded with cautious optimism, reflecting balanced risk perceptions. Investors should monitor inflation trends, RBA policy signals, and global trade developments closely. Overall, Australia’s macroeconomic outlook remains constructive, with a moderate growth path likely over the next 12 months.
Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Domestic Product YoY
Australia’s GDP growth data typically influences equity, currency, and bond markets. The ASX200 tracks domestic economic health closely, reacting to growth surprises. The AUDUSD currency pair reflects shifts in investor sentiment and trade outlook. Bond yields, such as those on the CGF (Commonwealth Government Bonds), respond to inflation and policy expectations. Additionally, the BTCUSD pair can serve as a risk sentiment barometer, while the AUDJPY pair often reflects broader Asia-Pacific risk appetite.
Indicator vs. ASX200 Since 2020
Since 2020, Australia’s GDP YoY growth and the ASX200 index have shown a positive correlation of approximately 0.65. Periods of GDP acceleration, such as late 2021 and mid-2023, coincided with strong equity rallies. Conversely, GDP slowdowns aligned with market corrections. This relationship underscores the ASX200’s sensitivity to macroeconomic fundamentals and growth expectations.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Australia’s latest GDP YoY growth indicate?
The 2.10% growth suggests a steady economic recovery, driven by services and exports, with moderate inflation and balanced policy support.
How does GDP growth affect Australia’s monetary policy?
Stronger GDP growth supports cautious RBA tightening, while slower growth may prompt accommodative measures to sustain the economy.
What are the main risks to Australia’s GDP outlook?
Key risks include geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, inflation spikes, and global trade disruptions.
Key takeaway: Australia’s GDP growth is on a steady upward path, balancing recovery momentum with inflation and external risks. Investors and policymakers should remain vigilant but optimistic.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - AU Events
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
02:30
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.83
None
02:30
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.28
Low
01:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-2.2
-1.9
-1.2
-1.23
Low
Sunday, June 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.2
47.5
47.5
47.22
High
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.37
Low
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.40
Low
01:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.42
Medium
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.4
4.1
4.3
4.33
Low
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
4
3.6
3.8
3.88
High
01:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0
0
0.1
0.07
Low
Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
83.6
82.2
82
81.72
Medium
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
1.7
-0.3
-0.1
-0.48
High
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
50.6
52.5
53
52.48
High
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
50.6
52.1
53.4
52.88
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.5
49.7
49
48.72
High
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-2.1
-2.3
-1.2
-1.23
Low
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.8
66.8
66.7
66.75
Low
01:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
4
4.1
4
4.02
High
01:30
AU
Full Time Employment Chg
41.7
-7.6
25
33.35
Medium
01:30
AU
Employment Change
39.7
37.4
30
31.78
High
01:30
AU
Part Time Employment Chg
-2.1
45
-10
-6.05
Medium
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
-3
2
0
0.00
High
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Exports MoM
-2.5
-0.6
0.4
-1.05
Low
01:30
AU
Imports MoM
-7.2
4.2
3.7
-1.75
Low
01:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-1.6
3.8
-1.6
-1.67
Low
01:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-0.3
1.9
-0.3
-0.60
Low
01:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
5.6
3.8
2.4
3.15
Medium
01:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
4.3
3.5
1.2
1.91
Medium
01:30
AU
Balance of Trade
6.548
4.841
5.4
4.69
High
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.1
1.6
1.2
1.20
Medium
01:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.15
High
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-68.1
-25.6
-28
-37.10
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
52.1
53
52.2
51.68
Low
23:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-40.3
-8.9
-10
-13.92
Medium
23:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-31.1
-13.9
-9
-12.83
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
52.5
53.6
53.1
52.58
High
01:30
AU
Net Exports Contribution to GDP
-0.9
0.6
0.7
0.40
Low
01:30
AU
Company Gross Profits QoQ
-2.5
7.1
-0.9
0.10
Medium
01:30
AU
Current Account
-4.9
2.7
5.9
4.75
Low
01:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
-0.4
0.1
0.05
High
01:30
AU
Business Inventories QoQ
1.3
-1.6
-0.6
-0.55
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-4.2
-12.1
-10
-10.92
Low
01:30
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
00:01
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.53
None
Sunday, June 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.7
49.6
49.6
49.32
High
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.40
Low
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.2
5.2
4.8
4.87
Low
01:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.42
Medium
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Private Capital Expenditure QoQ
1
0.9
0.5
0.70
Low
01:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-1.6
4
-1.2
-1.27
Low
01:30
AU
Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ
3.3
0.4
0.5
1.13
Low
01:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-0.3
2.7
1.5
1.20
Medium
01:30
AU
Building Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.9
1.3
0.7
0.57
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.48
High
01:30
AU
Construction Work Done QoQ
-2.9
1.8
0.5
-0.38
Medium
01:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.23
Low
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
-0.4
0.2
0.15
High
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.1
4.6
4.5
4.53
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.6
49.6
50.1
49.82
High
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
52.6
53
52.8
52.28
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
53.1
53.6
53.2
52.68
High
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
82.2
82.4
83.1
82.82
Medium
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-0.3
-2.4
0.9
0.52
High
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Employment Change
38.5
-5.9
23.7
25.48
High
01:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.7
66.6
66.6
66.65
Low
01:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.92
High
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Wage Price Index YoY
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.20
Low
01:30
AU
Wage Price Index QoQ
0.8
1
0.9
0.88
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
1
1
2
2.00
High
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
1.9
-0.9
1.9
1.60
Low
01:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
3.8
12.4
3.8
3.73
Low
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
High
01:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
-0.4
0.2
-0.2
-0.25
High
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
2.8
-1
1.1
1.07
Low
01:30
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.28
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
2.8
1.5
1
1.71
Medium
01:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
3.8
1.2
0.7
1.45
Medium
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Balance of Trade
5.024
6.591
7.3
6.59
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.6
47.3
49.9
49.62
High
23:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-8.9
-5.3
-4
-7.92
Medium
23:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-13.9
-7
-6
-9.83
Low
23:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-25.6
-12.9
-14
-23.10
Low
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.40
Low
01:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
-0.4
0.2
0.2
0.15
High
01:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.32
Medium
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.1
5
5
5.07
Low
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
PPI QoQ
0.9
0.9
0.6
0.75
Medium
01:30
AU
PPI YoY
4.3
4.1
2.6
3.13
Low
01:30
AU
Export Prices QoQ
-2.1
5.6
-0.3
0.02
Low
01:30
AU
Import Prices QoQ
-1.8
1.1
0.1
-0.18
Low
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY
4.4
4.4
4.1
4.15
High
01:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ
1
0.8
0.8
0.83
High
01:30
AU
Inflation Rate QoQ
1
0.6
0.8
0.80
Medium
01:30
AU
Inflation Rate YoY
3.6
4.1
3.4
3.40
High
01:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.48
High
01:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY
4
4.2
3.8
3.83
High
01:30
AU
RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.93
High
01:30
AU
CPI
137.4
136.1
137.1
137.00
High
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
53.6
53.3
53.2
52.68
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
54.2
54.4
54
53.48
High
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.9
47.3
47.9
47.62
High
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
3.8
3.7
3.9
3.92
High
01:30
AU
Employment Change
-6.6
117.6
7.2
8.98
High
01:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.6
66.7
66.5
66.55
Low
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.17
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
10.7
-9.9
10.7
10.63
Low
01:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-1.9
-2.5
-1.9
-2.20
Low
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.6
4.3
4.1
4.13
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
1
0
-3
-3.00
High
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
82.4
84.4
84.8
84.52
Medium
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-2.4
-1.8
0.5
0.12
High
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
1.2
-0.8
3
3.75
Medium
01:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
1.6
-0.9
2.25
2.96
Medium
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
7.28
10.058
10.4
9.69
High
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
0.3
1.1
0.3
0.25
High
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
10.7
-9.9
5.1
5.03
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-1.9
-2.5
3.3
3.00
Medium
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
53.3
52.1
52.4
51.88
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
54.4
53.1
53.5
52.98
High
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-5.3
-14.9
-17
-20.92
Medium
22:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-7
-12.6
-14
-17.83
Low
22:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-12.9
-18.4
-10
-19.10
Low
06:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-15.3
-15.3
-6
-6.92
Low
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-1
-2.1
-0.8
-0.83
Low
00:00
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.48
Low
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.63
None
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.3
47.8
46.8
46.52
High
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.3
4.5
4.4
4.43
Low
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
0.3
1.1
0.4
0.35
High
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.40
Low
00:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.42
Medium
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
5
4.9
4.9
4.97
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.58
High
00:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.23
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-1.8
6.2
-1.6
-1.98
High
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
84.4
86
84.6
84.32
Medium
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.7
66.6
66.8
66.85
Low
00:30
AU
Employment Change
116.5
15.3
40
41.78
High
00:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
3.7
4.1
4
4.02
High
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
52.4
52.1
51.5
50.98
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
46.8
47.8
48.9
48.62
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
53.5
53.1
51.5
50.98
High
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:30
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
High
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-1
-10.1
-1
-1.30
Low
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-9.9
-1.8
-9.9
-9.97
Low
00:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
0
1
-1
-1.00
High
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
-2.6
-1.3
1
1.75
Medium
00:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
-4.6
-5.5
1.1
1.81
Medium
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
11.027
10.743
11.5
10.79
High
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.5
2.1
1.4
1.40
Medium
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
1.1
-2.1
1.1
1.05
High
00:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.25
High
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-12.6
-23.8
-19
-22.83
Low
22:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-14.9
-27.3
-22
-25.92
Medium
22:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-18.4
-11.5
-7
-16.10
Low
00:30
AU
Net Exports Contribution to GDP
0.6
-0.6
0.2
-0.10
Low
00:30
AU
Current Account
11.8
1.3
5.6
4.45
Low
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
52.1
49
51.8
51.28
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
53.1
49.1
52.8
52.28
High
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-2.8
3.4
-0.6
-0.63
Low
00:30
AU
Business Inventories QoQ
-1.7
1.2
0
0.05
Low
00:30
AU
Company Gross Profits QoQ
7.4
-1.6
1.8
2.80
Medium
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-9.9
-1.8
1.2
1.13
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-1
-10.1
4
3.70
Medium
00:00
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
-0.1
0.3
0.4
0.38
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-11
-10.4
-9
-9.92
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.8
50.1
47.7
47.42
High
13:00
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.53
None
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
1.1
-2.1
1.5
1.45
High
00:30
AU
Private Capital Expenditure QoQ
0.8
0.3
0.5
0.70
Low
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.40
Low
00:30
AU
Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.1
0.6
0.2
0.82
Low
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.87
Low
00:30
AU
Building Capital Expenditure QoQ
1.5
0.1
0.4
0.28
Low
00:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.42
Medium
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.68
High
00:30
AU
Construction Work Done QoQ
0.7
1.3
0.8
-0.07
Medium
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
52.8
49.1
50.2
49.68
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.7
50.1
50.9
50.62
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
51.8
49
50.1
49.58
Low
00:30
AU
Wage Price Index YoY
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.10
Low
00:30
AU
Wage Price Index QoQ
0.9
1.3
0.9
0.88
Low
00:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
-0.1
0
0.1
0.07
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.5
4.5
4.3
4.33
Low
00:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
4.1
3.9
4
4.02
High
00:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.8
66.8
66.9
66.95
Low
00:30
AU
Employment Change
0.5
-62.8
30
31.78
High
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
1
0
1
1.00
High
Monday, February 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
86
81
80.4
80.12
Medium
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
6.2
-1.3
-0.8
-1.18
High
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-0.5
-4.3
-0.5
-0.57
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-9.5
0.3
-9.5
-9.80
Low
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-23.8
-25.3
-27
-30.83
Low
22:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-27.3
-22.4
-26
-29.92
Medium
22:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-11.5
-22.2
-24
-33.10
Low
03:30
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
High
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
-2.7
1.6
0.1
0.05
High
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
10.959
11.764
11
10.29
High
00:30
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.3
1
0.5
0.48
Low
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
1.7
0.6
0.6
0.57
Low
Sunday, February 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
49.1
47.1
47.9
47.38
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
49
46.9
48.1
47.58
Low
Friday, February 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
-1.3
1.9
2.9
3.65
Medium
00:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
-5.6
0.3
1.5
2.21
Medium
00:30
AU
PPI QoQ
0.9
1.8
0.6
0.75
Medium
00:30
AU
PPI YoY
4.1
3.8
3.7
4.22
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-10.4
-11.2
-9.2
-10.12
Low
00:30
AU
Import Prices QoQ
1.1
0.8
0.3
0.02
Low
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-0.5
-1.7
0.5
0.43
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-9.5
0.3
1.1
0.80
Medium
00:30
AU
Export Prices QoQ
5.6
-3.1
2.5
2.82
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits YoY
-24
-4.6
-13.9
-15.07
Low
00:01
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.53
None
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
50.1
47.6
50.3
50.02
High
00:30
AU
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.6
1.2
0.8
0.80
Medium
00:30
AU
Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
5.4
4.3
4.30
High
00:30
AU
RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY
4.4
5.2
4.5
4.55
High
00:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY
4.2
5.2
4.3
4.33
High
00:30
AU
CPI
136.1
135.3
136.8
136.70
High
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.40
Low
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.4
4.3
3.7
3.78
High
00:30
AU
RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ
0.9
1.3
1
1.02
High
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.8
4.7
4.8
4.87
Low
00:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.32
Medium
00:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ
0.8
1.2
0.9
0.93
High
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
-2.7
1.6
-1
-1.05
High
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0.01
0.1
-0.1
-0.13
Low
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
47.9
47.1
48
47.48
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
48.1
46.9
48.1
47.58
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
50.3
47.6
48.4
48.12
High
00:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
-1
-8
-7
-7.00
High
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.5
4.5
4.2
4.23
Low
00:30
AU
Employment Change
-65.1
72.6
17.6
19.38
High
00:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.8
67.3
67.1
67.15
Low
00:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.92
High
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-1.7
2.9
-1.7
-1.77
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
1.6
7.2
1.6
1.30
Medium
00:30
AU
Building Permits YoY
-4.6
-5.5
-4.6
-5.77
Low
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
81
82.1
82.5
82.22
High
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-1.3
2.7
0.5
0.12
High
01:00
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
1
0.3
0.2
0.18
Low
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
0.1
-5.1
1.5
1.47
Low
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
1.9
4.9
1.5
2.25
Medium
00:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
0.5
8.3
0
0.71
Medium
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
11.437
7.66
7.5
6.79
High
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
4.3
4.9
4.4
4.48
High
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
1.6
7.2
-2
-2.30
Medium
00:30
AU
Building Permits YoY
-4.6
-5.5
-7.7
-8.87
Low
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-1.7
2.9
-2.2
-2.27
Low
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
2
-0.4
1.2
1.15
High
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Gross Domestic Product YoY Shows Australia’s Steady Growth Australia’s GDP YoY Rises to 2.10 Percent in December Gross Domestic Product YoY measures the annual change in the total value of goods and services produced by a country, reflecting economic health over a year. For Australia (AU), December 2025’s GDP YoY growth reached 2.10%, improving from 1.80% in September but slightly below the 2.20% forecast. Key facts include: 1) 2.10% annual growth rate, 2) a 0.30 percentage point increase since the previous quarter, and 3) data released on December 3, 2025. This steady rise highlights ongoing recovery driven by expanding services and commodity exports. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist noted, “Australia’s GDP growth signals resilience amid global uncertainties, supported by balanced monetary policy and stable domestic demand.” The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautious stance on interest rates aligns with this moderate expansion, while external risks like geopolitical tensions and commodity price shifts remain watchpoints. Overall, the data suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for Australia’s economy in the near term.
The December 2025 GDP YoY growth of 2.10% outpaces the 1.80% recorded in September and significantly exceeds the 1.30% average for the first half of 2025. This upward trajectory reflects a rebound in both domestic consumption and export sectors. The 12-month average GDP growth now stands at approximately 1.63%, indicating a sustained recovery phase.
Comparing quarterly growth rates, Q4 2025 saw a 0.50% increase, up from 0.40% in Q3, signaling accelerating momentum. The services sector’s expansion, particularly in finance and healthcare, drove much of this improvement. Meanwhile, commodity exports benefited from stronger global demand and price stabilization.