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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 2.1% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Australia Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 2.1% in April 2026, released September 2026, down 0.4% from March's 2.5% reading. The print exceeded the 1.8% consensus by 0.3%. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
2.1
Actual
1.8
Consensus
2.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1.8
Actual: 2.1
Error: -0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Australia) was reported at 2.1% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.8% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.4%, up from the prior three at 1.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Sep 18) and RBA Hunter Speech (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - AU
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
Australia's Gross Domestic Product YoY came in at 2.100000% for September, beating the 1.800000% estimate but down from June's 2.500000%. The data shows a deceleration in annual growth, indicating a slowdown from the previous quarter's expansion. Market focus will remain on upcoming inflation and employment reports to gauge the Reserve Bank's next moves. Updated 9/2/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.1 %, consensus 1.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.5 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 2.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | AU | Westpac Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 01:00 | AU | Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |