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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Home Loans MoM climbed to 4.7% in July 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased November 2025
Australia Home Loans MoM climbed to 4.7% in July 2025, released November 2025, up 2.5% from June's 2.2% reading. The print exceeded the 2.5% consensus by 2.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.57%. Home Loans MoM is now the highest in 22 months.
Latest Release
4.7
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.36 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Nov 2025
Predicted: 2.5
Actual: 4.7
Error: -2.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Home Loans MoM (Australia) was reported at -4.3% in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 9.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.67%, up from the prior three at 1.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.36%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Home Loans MoM - AU
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About Home Loans MoM — Australia
DEFINITION
Home Loans MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the number of new home loans issued by lenders on a monthly basis. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current state of the housing market and consumer demand for home ownership. It is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can indicate shifts in consumer confidence, interest rates, and overall economic growth. A positive trend in Home Loans MoM suggests a healthy housing market and a strong economy, while a decline may signal potential challenges in the housing sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -4.3 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 10.6 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 4.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.