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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Monthly CPI Indicator held to 3.8% in January 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased February 2026
Australia Monthly CPI Indicator held to 3.8% in January 2026, released February 2026. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.94%. Over the past 3 months, Monthly CPI Indicator averaged 3.67%, vs 3.43% in the prior 3-month window. Monthly CPI Indicator is now the highest in 19 months.
Latest Release
3.8
Actual
3.7
Consensus
3.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 3.73
Actual: 3.8
Error: -0.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Monthly CPI Indicator (Australia) was reported at 3.8% in February 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.7% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through February 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.19%, ranging from 1.9% to 3.8% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.8%, up from the prior three at 3.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.68%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.63%). In February readings over the past 3 years, Monthly CPI Indicator has averaged 3.38%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/NZD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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Monthly CPI Indicator - AU
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About Monthly CPI Indicator — Australia
DEFINITION
The Monthly CPI Indicator is a key measure of inflation that tracks changes in the average prices of goods and services over a one-month period. It is widely used by economists, policymakers, and investors to gauge the overall health of the economy and make informed decisions about monetary policy, investment strategies, and consumer spending. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current and future trends of consumer prices, making it an essential tool for monitoring and forecasting economic conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3.8 %, consensus 3.7 %. Prior reading (Dec 2025): 3.8 %. Before that (Nov 2025): 3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/NZD (Bullish AUD, r=0.52) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.