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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Private Sector Credit MoM held to 0.6% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Australia Private Sector Credit MoM held to 0.6% in September 2026, released October 2026. The print exceeded the 0.5% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.66%. Over the past 3 months, Private Sector Credit MoM averaged 0.6%, vs 0.73% in the prior 3-month window. Private Sector Credit MoM is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
0.6
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.5
Actual: 0.6
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Private Sector Credit MoM (Australia) was reported at 0.6% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.65%, ranging from 0.5% to 0.8% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.6%, down from the prior three at 0.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.08%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.07%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Private Sector Credit MoM has averaged 0.55%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Building Permits MoM (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Private Sector Credit MoM - AU
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About Private Sector Credit MoM — Australia
DEFINITION
Private Sector Credit MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in credit extended to the private sector by banks and other financial institutions on a monthly basis. This indicator is used to assess the overall health of the private sector and its ability to access credit, which is crucial for economic growth and stability. A positive trend in Private Sector Credit MoM indicates an increase in lending activity and potential for economic expansion, while a negative trend may signal a slowdown in economic activity. It is an important tool for investors, policymakers, and analysts in evaluating the current and future state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.6 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Import Prices QoQ | -1.1 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.10 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Export Prices QoQ | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.35 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.32 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Housing Credit MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.43 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.57 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index QoQ | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.27 | Medium |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.55 | Low |