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Data from Reserve Bank of Australia. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ climbed to 1.0% in Q3 2025
Reserve Bank of AustraliaMonthlyReleased October 2025
Australia RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ climbed to 1.0% in Q3 2025, released October 2025, up 0.4% from June's 0.6% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.8% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.1%. RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
1
Actual
0.8
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: 0.8
Actual: 1
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ (Australia) was reported at 1% in October 2025. This beat the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.77%, up from the prior three at 0.73%. In October readings over the past 3 years, RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ has averaged 1.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
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RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ - AU
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About RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ — Australia
DEFINITION
The RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ is a key financial indicator used by the Reserve Bank of Australia to measure the quarterly change in the weighted median consumer price index. This index provides insight into the overall inflationary pressures in the Australian economy, helping to inform monetary policy decisions. It is calculated by taking into account the prices of a wide range of goods and services, giving a more accurate representation of the cost of living for the average consumer. As a highly regarded measure of inflation, the RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers alike.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2025): actual 1 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Apr 2025): 0.6 %. Before that (Jan 2025): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.