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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina Retail Sales YoY fell to 6.8% in November 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased December 2025
Bosnia and Herzegovina Retail Sales YoY fell to 6.8% in November 2025, released December 2025, down 2.2% from October's 9.0% reading. The reading matched the 7.0% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.33%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 6.35%, vs 2.93% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 66th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
6.8
Actual
7
Consensus
9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.95 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Dec 2025
Predicted: 8.55
Actual: 6.8
Error: +1.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Bosnia and Herzegovina) was reported at 6.8% in December 2025. This missed the market consensus of 7% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through December 2025. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.72%, ranging from -0.1% to 9% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.5%, up from the prior three at 2.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.8%) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.35%). In December readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 3.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.95%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2025.
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Retail Sales YoY - BA
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About Retail Sales YoY — Bosnia and Herzegovina
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Nov 2025): actual 6.8 %, consensus 7 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 9 %. Before that (Sep 2025): 3.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.50) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.