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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Producer Price Index MoM climbed to 0.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Bulgaria Producer Price Index MoM climbed to 0.4% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.9% from June's -0.5% reading. The reading missed the 1.0% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.28%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged -0.35%, vs 0.4% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 55th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
1
Consensus
-0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.94 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.93
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (Bulgaria) was reported at 0.4% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1% by 0.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.2%, ranging from -0.5% to 5.9% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.1%, down from the prior three at 2.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.86%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.05%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.94%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - BG
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About Producer Price Index MoM — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
Bulgaria's Producer Price Index MoM rose 0.400000% in August, missing the 1.000000% estimate but reversing July's -0.500000% decline. The index shifted from contraction in July to modest expansion in August. Market focus remains on upcoming inflation data and central bank policy amid this mixed momentum. Updated 8/28/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.5 %. Before that (May 2026): -0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BG Events
| Friday, September 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | BG | Current Account | -488.3 | -520 | -399.50 | Low | |