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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Producer Price Index MoM climbed to 1.9% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Bulgaria Producer Price Index MoM climbed to 1.9% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 2.7% from March's -0.8% reading. The print exceeded the -1.0% consensus by 2.9%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.63%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged -0.35%, vs 2.97% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 66th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.9
Actual
-1
Consensus
-0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.54 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -2.45
Actual: 1.9
Error: -4.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (Bulgaria) was reported at 1.9% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1% by 2.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.33%, ranging from -2.1% to 5.9% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.63%, up from the prior three at 2.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.54%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - BG
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About Producer Price Index MoM — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
Bulgaria's Producer Price Index MoM rose 1.900000% in May, sharply beating the -1.000000% estimate and reversing April's -0.800000% decline. May's increase signals renewed upward pressure on producer costs after a contraction in April. Market focus will remain on inflation trends ahead of upcoming central bank policy decisions. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.9 %, consensus -1 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -0.8 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.61) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.