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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Producer Price Index MoM fell to 2.6% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Bulgaria Producer Price Index MoM fell to 2.6% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.4% from August's 3.0% reading. The print exceeded the 1.1% consensus by 1.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.3%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged 1.7%, vs 0.4% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 69th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.6
Actual
1.1
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.35 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.58
Actual: 2.6
Error: -1.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (Bulgaria) was reported at 2.6% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.1% by 1.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.76%, ranging from -0.5% to 5.9% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2%, up from the prior three at 0.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.79%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.72%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.35%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - BG
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About Producer Price Index MoM — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
Bulgaria's Producer Price Index MoM rose 2.600000% in October, missing the previous month's 3.000000% but beating the 1.100000% estimate. October's increase signals continued upward pressure on producer costs, though at a slower pace than September. Market participants will watch upcoming inflation data closely amid this moderation. Updated 10/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.6 %, consensus 1.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 3 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.52) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BG Events
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | BG | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 09:00 | BG | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.50 | Low | |