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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 20.9% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Bulgaria Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 20.9% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 3.5% from August's 17.4% reading. The print exceeded the 18.9% consensus by 2.0%. Producer Price Index YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 15.55%, vs 16.6% in the prior 3-month window. Producer Price Index YoY is now the highest in 20 months.
Latest Release
20.9
Actual
18.9
Consensus
17.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.57 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 19.4
Actual: 20.9
Error: -1.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Bulgaria) was reported at 20.9% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 18.9% by 2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 17.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.24%, ranging from 8.4% to 20.9% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 17.33%, up from the prior three at 16.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.62%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 3.69%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.58%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - BG
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
Bulgaria's Producer Price Index YoY surged to 20.900000% in October, beating the 18.900000% estimate and rising from September's 17.400000%. This marks a sharp acceleration in producer inflation, indicating mounting cost pressures in the economy. Market participants will closely watch upcoming inflation data and central bank signals amid this unexpected jump. Updated 10/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 20.9 %, consensus 18.9 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 17.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 13.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BG Events
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | BG | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 09:00 | BG | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.50 | Low | |