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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Producer Price Index YoY fell to 13.7% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Bulgaria Producer Price Index YoY fell to 13.7% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 3.4% from June's 17.1% reading. The reading missed the 14.7% consensus by 1.0%. Producer Price Index YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 17.3%, vs 10.57% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 71st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
13.7
Actual
14.7
Consensus
17.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.77 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 15.17
Actual: 13.7
Error: +1.47
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Bulgaria) was reported at 13.7% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 14.7% by 1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 17.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 12.24%, ranging from 7.9% to 17.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 16.1%, up from the prior three at 11.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.3%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.85%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.78%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - BG
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
Bulgaria's Producer Price Index YoY for August came in at 13.700000%, missing the 14.700000% estimate and down from July's 17.100000%. The decline from July to August signals a notable easing in producer price inflation. Market focus now shifts to upcoming inflation data and central bank policy decisions amid this cooling trend. Updated 8/28/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 13.7 %, consensus 14.7 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 17.1 %. Before that (May 2026): 17.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BG Events
| Friday, September 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | BG | Current Account | -488.3 | -520 | -399.50 | Low | |