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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Budget Balance fell to -166B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Brazil Budget Balance fell to -166B in June 2026, released July 2026, down 2.32B from May's -163.68B reading. The reading missed the -133.2B consensus by 32.8B. Budget Balance has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged -111.91B, vs -86.69B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 13th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-166
Actual
-133.2
Consensus
-163.679
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10.05 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -139.4
Actual: -166
Error: +26.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (Brazil) was reported at -166.00 billion in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -133.20 billion by 32.80 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -163.68 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -101.66 billion, ranging from -175.58 billion to 40.06 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -129.94 billion, down from the prior three at -58.68 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 57.18 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 62.33 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Bovespa, negatively correlated (Bearish Bovespa). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 10.05 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Budget Balance - BR
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About Budget Balance — Brazil
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -166 B, consensus -133.2 B. Prior reading (May 2026): -163.7 B. Before that (Apr 2026): -60.14 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.67) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.8 | 49.7 | 51.25 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | BR | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.18 | 0.4 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production YoY | 0.2 | -0.8 | -0.80 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 50.8 | 50.80 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14.25 | 14.25 | 14.25 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | BR | Balance of Trade | 9.76 | 9.9 | 9.90 | Medium | |