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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Budget Balance climbed to -97.6B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil Budget Balance climbed to -97.6B in July 2026, released August 2026, up 68.4B from June's -166B reading. The reading missed the -84B consensus by 13.6B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -103.7B. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged -164.84B, vs -120.09B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 58th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-97.6
Actual
-84
Consensus
-166
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±9.3 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -96.04
Actual: -97.6
Error: +1.56
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (Brazil) was reported at -97.60 billion in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -84.00 billion by 13.60 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -166.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -94.57 billion, ranging from -166.00 billion to 40.06 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -142.43 billion, down from the prior three at -40.22 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 52.19 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 69.32 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Bovespa, negatively correlated (Bearish Bovespa). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 9.30 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Sep 18) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Budget Balance - BR
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About Budget Balance — Brazil
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -97.6 B, consensus -84 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -166 B. Before that (May 2026): -163.7 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.66) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM | 1.5 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 1.40 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 13.75 | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium |