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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Gross Debt to GDP climbed to 82.5% in July 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased August 2026
Brazil Gross Debt to GDP climbed to 82.5% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.6% from June's 81.9% reading. The reading matched expectations. Gross Debt to GDP has now risen for 7 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Gross Debt to GDP averaged 81.5%, vs 79.9% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Debt to GDP is now the highest in 36 months.
Latest Release
82.5
Actual
82.2
Consensus
81.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.35 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 82.43
Actual: 82.5
Error: -0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Debt to GDP (Brazil) was reported at 82.5% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 82.2% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 81.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 79.61%, ranging from 77.5% to 82.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 81.83%, up from the prior three at 79.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.55%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.1%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Gross Debt to GDP has averaged 79.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/BRL, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.35%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Debt to GDP - BR
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About Gross Debt to GDP — Brazil
DEFINITION
Gross Debt to GDP is a financial indicator that measures the total amount of a country's debt in relation to its gross domestic product (GDP). It is used to assess a country's ability to manage its debt and evaluate its overall economic health. A high ratio may indicate a heavy debt burden and potential financial instability, while a low ratio may suggest a strong economy and good debt management. This indicator is commonly used by investors, policymakers, and international organizations to monitor a country's fiscal sustainability and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 82.5 %, consensus 82.15 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 81.9 %. Before that (May 2026): 81.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.52) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |