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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Gross Debt to GDP climbed to 81.9% in June 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased July 2026
Brazil Gross Debt to GDP climbed to 81.9% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.8% from May's 81.1% reading. The reading matched expectations. Gross Debt to GDP has now risen for 6 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Gross Debt to GDP averaged 80.75%, vs 79.33% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Debt to GDP is now the highest in 36 months.
Latest Release
81.9
Actual
81.5
Consensus
81.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.39 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 80.65
Actual: 81.1
Error: -0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Debt to GDP (Brazil) was reported at 81.9% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 81.5% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 81.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 78.89%, ranging from 77.5% to 81.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 80.23%, up from the prior three at 78.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.08%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.17%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Gross Debt to GDP has averaged 78%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.39%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Debt to GDP - BR
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About Gross Debt to GDP — Brazil
DEFINITION
Gross Debt to GDP is a financial indicator that measures the total amount of a country's debt in relation to its gross domestic product (GDP). It is used to assess a country's ability to manage its debt and evaluate its overall economic health. A high ratio may indicate a heavy debt burden and potential financial instability, while a low ratio may suggest a strong economy and good debt management. This indicator is commonly used by investors, policymakers, and international organizations to monitor a country's fiscal sustainability and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 81.9 %, consensus 81.5 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 81.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 80.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.60) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | BR | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 81.9 | 81.1 | 81.5 | 81.70 | Medium |
| 11:30 | BR | Nominal Budget Balance | -166 | -163.679 | -133.2 | -149.60 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Budget Balance | -166 | -163.679 | -133.2 | -149.60 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 81.9 | 81.1 | 81.5 | 81.70 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.51 | 2 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.77 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -0.14 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.8 | 49.7 | 51.25 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | BR | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.18 | 0.4 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production YoY | 0.2 | -0.8 | -0.80 | Low | |