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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Gross Debt to GDP held to 82.9% in September 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased October 2026
Brazil Gross Debt to GDP held to 82.9% in September 2026, released October 2026. The reading matched expectations. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 4.8%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Debt to GDP averaged 82.77%, vs 81.13% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Debt to GDP is now the highest in 35 months.
Latest Release
82.9
Actual
83.5
Consensus
82.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.31 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 83.58
Actual: 82.9
Error: +0.68
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Debt to GDP (Brazil) was reported at 82.9% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 83.5% by 0.6%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 80.33%, ranging from 78.1% to 82.9% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 82.77%, up from the prior three at 81.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.76%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.01%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.31%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product MoM (Oct 30) and Unemployment Rate (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Gross Debt to GDP - BR
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About Gross Debt to GDP — Brazil
DEFINITION
Gross Debt to GDP is a financial indicator that measures the total amount of a country's debt in relation to its gross domestic product (GDP). It is used to assess a country's ability to manage its debt and evaluate its overall economic health. A high ratio may indicate a heavy debt burden and potential financial instability, while a low ratio may suggest a strong economy and good debt management. This indicator is commonly used by investors, policymakers, and international organizations to monitor a country's fiscal sustainability and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 82.9 %, consensus 83.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 82.9 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 82.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.61) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |