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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Gross Debt to GDP climbed to 80.4% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Brazil Gross Debt to GDP climbed to 80.4% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 0.4% from March's 80.0% reading. The reading matched expectations. Gross Debt to GDP has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Gross Debt to GDP averaged 79.65%, vs 78.8% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Debt to GDP is now the highest in 36 months.
Latest Release
80.4
Actual
80.3
Consensus
80
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.29 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 80.3
Actual: 80.4
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | INDEX | Bullish Bovespa | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Debt to GDP (Brazil) was reported at 80.4% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 80.3% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 80%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 78.23%, ranging from 76.1% to 80.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 79.43%, up from the prior three at 78.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.17%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.15%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Gross Debt to GDP has averaged 77.08%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with Bovespa, positively correlated (Bullish Bovespa). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.29%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Debt to GDP - BR
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About Gross Debt to GDP — Brazil
DEFINITION
Gross Debt to GDP is a financial indicator that measures the total amount of a country's debt in relation to its gross domestic product (GDP). It is used to assess a country's ability to manage its debt and evaluate its overall economic health. A high ratio may indicate a heavy debt burden and potential financial instability, while a low ratio may suggest a strong economy and good debt management. This indicator is commonly used by investors, policymakers, and international organizations to monitor a country's fiscal sustainability and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 80.4 %, consensus 80.3 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 80.1 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 79.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.57) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.