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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Gross Domestic Product MoM climbed to 82.9% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Brazil Gross Domestic Product MoM climbed to 82.9% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.4% from July's 82.5% reading. The reading matched the 83.1% consensus. Gross Domestic Product MoM has now risen for 8 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product MoM averaged 82.2%, vs 80.53% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Domestic Product MoM is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
82.9
Actual
83.1
Consensus
82.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.36 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 83.27
Actual: 82.9
Error: +0.37
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.86 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product MoM (Brazil) was reported at 82.9% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 83.1% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 82.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 80.1%, ranging from 78.1% to 82.9% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 82.43%, up from the prior three at 80.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.65%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.73%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.36%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include BCB Focus Market Readout (Oct 13) and Business Confidence (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product MoM - BR
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About Gross Domestic Product MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's Gross Domestic Product MoM for September registered at 82.900000, missing the estimate of 83.100000 but rising from August's 82.500000. The data shows continued monthly expansion, with GDP increasing by 0.4 points from August to September. Market participants will watch upcoming releases closely amid steady growth and central bank policy considerations. Updated 9/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 82.9 %, consensus 83.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 82.5 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 81.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.86) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 44 | 44.00 | Medium | |
| 17:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 44 | 44.00 | Medium | |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.10 | Low | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | -0.8 | 0.8 | 0.60 | Medium | |