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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Gross Domestic Product MoM climbed to 82.5% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil Gross Domestic Product MoM climbed to 82.5% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.6% from June's 81.9% reading. The reading matched the 82.2% consensus. Gross Domestic Product MoM has now risen for 7 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product MoM averaged 81.5%, vs 79.9% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Domestic Product MoM is now the highest in 17 months.
Latest Release
82.5
Actual
82.2
Consensus
81.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.35 percentage points
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 82.4
Actual: 82.5
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.70 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product MoM (Brazil) was reported at 82.5% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 82.2% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 81.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 79.61%, ranging from 77.5% to 82.5% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 81.83%, up from the prior three at 79.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.55%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.65%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/BRL, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.35%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product MoM - BR
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About Gross Domestic Product MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's Gross Domestic Product MoM for August registered at 82.500000%, beating the estimate of 82.200000%. This marks an increase from July's 81.900000%, indicating continued economic expansion. Market participants will watch upcoming data for confirmation of this growth trend. Updated 8/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 82.5 %, consensus 82.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 81.9 %. Before that (May 2026): 81.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.70) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |