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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Gross Domestic Product MoM climbed to 81.9% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Brazil Gross Domestic Product MoM climbed to 81.9% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.8% from May's 81.1% reading. The reading matched the 81.5% consensus. Gross Domestic Product MoM has now risen for 6 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product MoM averaged 80.75%, vs 79.33% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Domestic Product MoM is now the highest in 16 months.
Latest Release
81.9
Actual
81.5
Consensus
81.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.45 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 80.3
Actual: 80.4
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product MoM (Brazil) was reported at 81.9% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 81.5% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 81.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 78.68%, ranging from 76.6% to 81.1% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 80.23%, up from the prior three at 78.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.45%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jul 31) and Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product MoM - BR
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About Gross Domestic Product MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's Gross Domestic Product MoM for July registered at 81.900000%, beating the estimate of 81.500000%. This marks an increase from June's 81.100000%, indicating continued economic expansion. Market participants will watch upcoming data for confirmation of this growth trend. Updated 7/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 81.9 %, consensus 81.5 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 81.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 80.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.71) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | -1.16 | -0.5 | -1.09 | -1.13 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Unemployment Rate | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Medium |