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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Net Payrolls climbed to 165.8K in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Brazil Net Payrolls climbed to 165.8K in August 2026, released September 2026, up 107.23K from July's 58.57K reading. The print exceeded the 95.7K consensus by 70.1K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 4.91K. Over the past 3 months, Net Payrolls averaged 123.18K, vs 129.02K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 70th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
165.8
Actual
95.7
Consensus
58.57
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±34.12 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 89.88
Actual: 165.8
Error: -75.92
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.87 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Net Payrolls (Brazil) was reported at 166 thousand in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 96 thousand by 70 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 59 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 45 thousand, ranging from -618 thousand to 255 thousand across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 123 thousand, down from the prior three at 138 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 228 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 216 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, Net Payrolls has averaged 182 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 34 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 2) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Net Payrolls - BR
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About Net Payrolls — Brazil
DEFINITION
Net Payrolls is a financial indicator that measures the total amount of employee compensation paid by a company after accounting for taxes, benefits, and other deductions. It provides valuable insight into a company's labor costs and can be used to assess its financial health and performance. This indicator is often used by investors, analysts, and businesses to evaluate the overall strength and stability of a company's workforce and its impact on profitability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 165.8 K, consensus 95.7 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 165.8 K. Before that (Jul 2026): 58.57 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.87) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 44.8 | 43 | 41.90 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | BR | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.51 | 0.7 | 0.48 | Low | |
| 17:30 | BR | Net Payrolls | 165.83 | 180 | 180.00 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 13.75 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |