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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Net Payrolls fell to 85.89K in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Brazil Net Payrolls fell to 85.89K in April 2026, released May 2026, down 142.32K from March's 228.21K reading. The reading missed the 230K consensus by 144.11K. Net Payrolls has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Net Payrolls averaged 198.62K, vs -383.49K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 29th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
85.89
Actual
230
Consensus
228.21
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±31.72 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 223.16
Actual: 85.89
Error: +137.27
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.89 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Net Payrolls (Brazil) was reported at 86 thousand in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 230 thousand by 144 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 228 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 74 thousand, ranging from -618 thousand to 255 thousand across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 151 thousand, up from the prior three at -149 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 225 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 221 thousand). In May readings over the past 3 years, Net Payrolls has averaged 194 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 32 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Net Payrolls - BR
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About Net Payrolls — Brazil
DEFINITION
Net Payrolls is a financial indicator that measures the total amount of employee compensation paid by a company after accounting for taxes, benefits, and other deductions. It provides valuable insight into a company's labor costs and can be used to assess its financial health and performance. This indicator is often used by investors, analysts, and businesses to evaluate the overall strength and stability of a company's workforce and its impact on profitability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 85.89 K, consensus 230 K. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 228.2 K. Before that (Feb 2026): 255.3 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.89) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.