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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Net Payrolls fell to 58.57K in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil Net Payrolls fell to 58.57K in July 2026, released August 2026, down 86.59K from June's 145.16K reading. The reading missed the 112K consensus by 53.43K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 11.06K. Over the past 3 months, Net Payrolls averaged 109.06K, vs 170.44K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 16th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
58.57
Actual
112
Consensus
145.16
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±31.72 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 109.03
Actual: 58.57
Error: +50.46
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.87 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Net Payrolls (Brazil) was reported at 59 thousand in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 112 thousand by 53 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 145 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 58 thousand, ranging from -618 thousand to 255 thousand across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 92 thousand, down from the prior three at 151 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 222 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 220 thousand). In August readings over the past 3 years, Net Payrolls has averaged 136 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 32 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Sep 18) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Net Payrolls - BR
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About Net Payrolls — Brazil
DEFINITION
Net Payrolls is a financial indicator that measures the total amount of employee compensation paid by a company after accounting for taxes, benefits, and other deductions. It provides valuable insight into a company's labor costs and can be used to assess its financial health and performance. This indicator is often used by investors, analysts, and businesses to evaluate the overall strength and stability of a company's workforce and its impact on profitability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 58.57 K, consensus 112 K. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 145.2 K. Before that (May 2026): 72.96 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.87) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM | 1.5 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 1.40 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 13.75 | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium |