Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Net Payrolls climbed to 145.16K in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Brazil Net Payrolls climbed to 145.16K in June 2026, released July 2026, up 72.2K from May's 72.96K reading. The print exceeded the 115K consensus by 30.16K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 11.24K. Over the past 3 months, Net Payrolls averaged 79.43K, vs 198.62K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 57th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
145.16
Actual
115
Consensus
72.96
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±31.72 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 68.46
Actual: 145.16
Error: -76.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.89 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Net Payrolls (Brazil) was reported at 145 thousand in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 115 thousand by 30 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 73 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 73 thousand, ranging from -618 thousand to 255 thousand across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 101 thousand, up from the prior three at -84 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 215 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 230 thousand).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 32 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Net Payrolls - BR
Loading chart data...
About Net Payrolls — Brazil
DEFINITION
Net Payrolls is a financial indicator that measures the total amount of employee compensation paid by a company after accounting for taxes, benefits, and other deductions. It provides valuable insight into a company's labor costs and can be used to assess its financial health and performance. This indicator is often used by investors, analysts, and businesses to evaluate the overall strength and stability of a company's workforce and its impact on profitability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 145.2 K, consensus 115 K. Prior reading (May 2026): 72.96 K. Before that (Apr 2026): 85.89 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.89) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | BR | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 81.9 | 81.1 | 81.5 | 81.70 | Medium |
| 11:30 | BR | Nominal Budget Balance | -166 | -163.679 | -133.2 | -149.60 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Budget Balance | -166 | -163.679 | -133.2 | -149.60 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 81.9 | 81.1 | 81.5 | 81.70 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.51 | 2 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.77 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -0.14 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.8 | 49.7 | 51.25 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | BR | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.18 | 0.4 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production YoY | 0.2 | -0.8 | -0.80 | Low | |