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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Nominal Budget Balance climbed to -60.14B in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Brazil Nominal Budget Balance climbed to -60.14B in April 2026, released May 2026, up 139.4B from March's -199.54B reading. The reading missed the -50.7B consensus by 9.44B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -101.46B. Over the past 3 months, Nominal Budget Balance averaged -150.06B, vs -59.01B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 81st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-60.139
Actual
-50.7
Consensus
-199.539
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±12.43 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -63.49
Actual: -60.14
Error: -3.36
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.92 | INDEX | Bearish Bovespa | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Nominal Budget Balance (Brazil) was reported at -60.14 billion in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -50.70 billion by 9.44 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -199.54 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -92.96 billion, ranging from -175.58 billion to 40.06 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -40.22 billion, up from the prior three at -99.54 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 50.24 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 49.77 billion). In May readings over the past 3 years, Nominal Budget Balance has averaged -62.07 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 12.43 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Nominal Budget Balance - BR
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About Nominal Budget Balance — Brazil
DEFINITION
The nominal budget balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and its total expenditures. It reflects the overall financial health of a government and its ability to manage its budget. A positive nominal budget balance indicates that a government's revenue exceeds its expenditures, while a negative balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is an important tool for evaluating a government's fiscal policies and their impact on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -60.14 B, consensus -50.7 B. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -199.5 B. Before that (Feb 2026): -100.6 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa, r=-0.92) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.