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Nominal Budget Balance fell to -199.54 in March 2026, down 98.95 from February's -100.59 reading. The reading missed the -148 consensus by 51.54. Nominal Budget Balance has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Nominal Budget Balance averaged -58.68, vs -91.56 in the prior 3-month window. Nominal Budget Balance is now the lowest in 36 months.
The April 2026 reading fell from the previous value of -100.59. Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa) and negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500).
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| Tuesday, May 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.67 | 0.88 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.39 | 4.14 | 4.41 | 4.42 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | CPI YoY | 4.39 | 4.14 | 4.41 | 4.40 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | CPI MoM | 0.67 | 0.88 | 0.7 | 0.69 | Low | |
| Wednesday, May 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | Retail Sales YoY | 0.2 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low | ||
| 12:00 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.6 | 0 | 0.00 | Medium | ||