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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Nominal Budget Balance fell to -166B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Brazil Nominal Budget Balance fell to -166B in June 2026, released July 2026, down 2.32B from May's -163.68B reading. The reading missed the -133.2B consensus by 32.8B. Nominal Budget Balance has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Nominal Budget Balance averaged -111.91B, vs -86.69B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-166
Actual
-133.2
Consensus
-163.679
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±15.48 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -139.4
Actual: -166
Error: +26.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Nominal Budget Balance (Brazil) was reported at -166.00 billion in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -133.20 billion by 32.80 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -163.68 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -101.66 billion, ranging from -175.58 billion to 40.06 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -129.94 billion, down from the prior three at -58.68 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 57.18 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 46.38 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Nominal Budget Balance has averaged -136.61 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Bovespa, negatively correlated (Bearish Bovespa). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 15.48 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 31, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Nominal Budget Balance - BR
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About Nominal Budget Balance — Brazil
DEFINITION
The nominal budget balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and its total expenditures. It reflects the overall financial health of a government and its ability to manage its budget. A positive nominal budget balance indicates that a government's revenue exceeds its expenditures, while a negative balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is an important tool for evaluating a government's fiscal policies and their impact on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -166 B, consensus -133.2 B. Prior reading (May 2026): -163.7 B. Before that (Apr 2026): -60.14 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.67) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | BR | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 81.9 | 81.1 | 81.5 | 81.70 | Medium |
| 11:30 | BR | Nominal Budget Balance | -166 | -163.679 | -133.2 | -149.60 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Budget Balance | -166 | -163.679 | -133.2 | -149.60 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 81.9 | 81.1 | 81.5 | 81.70 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.51 | 2 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.77 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -0.14 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.8 | 49.7 | 51.25 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | BR | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.18 | 0.4 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production YoY | 0.2 | -0.8 | -0.80 | Low | |