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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Budget Balance fell to -4.77B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Canada Budget Balance fell to -4.77B in July 2026, released September 2026, down 5.76B from June's 0.99B reading. The reading missed the -2.4B consensus by 2.37B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -4.35B. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged -0.03B, vs -12.04B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 31st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-4.77
Actual
-2.4
Consensus
0.99
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.39 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.91
Actual: -4.77
Error: +3.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (Canada) was reported at -4.77 billion in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of -2.40 billion by 2.37 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.99 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -5.48 billion, ranging from -29.73 billion to 0.99 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.61 billion, up from the prior three at -11.53 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.06 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 8.07 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Budget Balance has averaged -3.56 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.40 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product MoM (Oct 30) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Budget Balance - CA
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About Budget Balance — Canada
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -4.77 B, consensus -2.4 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.99 B. Before that (May 2026): -1.05 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |