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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada CFIB Business Barometer climbed to 58.3 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Canada CFIB Business Barometer climbed to 58.3 in July 2026, up 8.2 from June's 50.1 reading. The print exceeded the 49.9 consensus by 8.4. CFIB Business Barometer has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, CFIB Business Barometer averaged 47.95, vs 59.7 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 80th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
58.3
Actual
49.9
Consensus
50.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.11
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 45.4
Actual: 58.3
Error: -12.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CFIB Business Barometer (Canada) was reported at 58.30 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 49.90 by 8.40. The reading rose from the previous value of 50.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 53.45, ranging from 46.30 to 64.80 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 51.40, down from the prior three at 60.17. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.03) is lower than the prior year (σ 10.04). In July readings over the past 3 years, CFIB Business Barometer has averaged 54.87.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.11.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 4) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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CFIB Business Barometer - CA
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About CFIB Business Barometer — Canada
DEFINITION
The CFIB Business Barometer is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall health and confidence of small and medium-sized businesses in Canada. It provides valuable insights into the current economic climate and future outlook for these businesses, making it a valuable tool for investors, policymakers, and business owners alike. With its comprehensive data and reliable methodology, the CFIB Business Barometer is a trusted source for understanding the state of the Canadian business landscape.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 58.3, consensus 49.9. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 49.6. Before that (May 2026): 46.3.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.4 | 3.67 | 3.7 | 3.55 | Low |