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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada CFIB Business Barometer climbed to 49.6 in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Canada CFIB Business Barometer climbed to 49.6 in June 2026, up 3.3 from May's 46.3 reading. The reading missed the 56.5 consensus by 6.9. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 2.3. The reading is in the 37th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
49.6
Actual
56.5
Consensus
46.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.11
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 52.4
Actual: 49.6
Error: +2.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CFIB Business Barometer (Canada) was reported at 49.60 in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 56.50 by 6.90. The reading rose from the previous value of 46.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.91, ranging from 46.30 to 64.80 across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 50.57, down from the prior three at 60.07. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.12) is lower than the prior year (σ 9.80). In June readings over the past 3 years, CFIB Business Barometer has averaged 51.07.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.11.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jul 23) and Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Jul 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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CFIB Business Barometer - CA
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About CFIB Business Barometer — Canada
DEFINITION
The CFIB Business Barometer is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall health and confidence of small and medium-sized businesses in Canada. It provides valuable insights into the current economic climate and future outlook for these businesses, making it a valuable tool for investors, policymakers, and business owners alike. With its comprehensive data and reliable methodology, the CFIB Business Barometer is a trusted source for understanding the state of the Canadian business landscape.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 49.6, consensus 56.5. Prior reading (May 2026): 46.3. Before that (Apr 2026): 58.5.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, July 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.85 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 1 | -0.2 | -0.30 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 1.8 | 2 | 2 | 1.90 | Low |
| Thursday, July 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Housing Price Index MoM | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Retail Sales MoM | 1 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |