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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada CFIB Business Barometer climbed to 50 in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada CFIB Business Barometer climbed to 50 in October 2026, up 1.5 from September's 48.5 reading. The print exceeded the 47 consensus by 3. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 54.34. Over the past 3 months, CFIB Business Barometer averaged 50.85, vs 51.4 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 48th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
50
Actual
47
Consensus
48.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.11
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 46.13
Actual: 50
Error: -3.88
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CFIB Business Barometer (Canada) was reported at 50.00 in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 47.00 by 3.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 48.50. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 54.57, ranging from 46.30 to 64.80 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 51.83, up from the prior three at 51.40. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.63) is lower than the prior year (σ 9.18). In October readings over the past 3 years, CFIB Business Barometer has averaged 50.70.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.11.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product MoM (Oct 30) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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CFIB Business Barometer - CA
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About CFIB Business Barometer — Canada
DEFINITION
The CFIB Business Barometer is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall health and confidence of small and medium-sized businesses in Canada. It provides valuable insights into the current economic climate and future outlook for these businesses, making it a valuable tool for investors, policymakers, and business owners alike. With its comprehensive data and reliable methodology, the CFIB Business Barometer is a trusted source for understanding the state of the Canadian business landscape.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 50, consensus 47. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 50. Before that (Sep 2026): 47.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |