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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada CFIB Business Barometer fell to 57.6 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Canada CFIB Business Barometer fell to 57.6 in August 2026, down 1 from July's 58.6 reading. The reading matched the 56 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 53.66. Over the past 3 months, CFIB Business Barometer averaged 53.95, vs 56.35 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 76th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
57.6
Actual
56
Consensus
58.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.03
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 56.38
Actual: 57.6
Error: -1.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CFIB Business Barometer (Canada) was reported at 57.60 in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 56.00 by 1.60. The reading fell from the previous value of 58.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 54.43, ranging from 46.30 to 64.80 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 55.17, down from the prior three at 55.63. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.82) is lower than the prior year (σ 9.74). In August readings over the past 3 years, CFIB Business Barometer has averaged 54.07.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P/TSX Composite (Bearish S&P). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.03.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts (Sep 16) and New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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CFIB Business Barometer - CA
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About CFIB Business Barometer — Canada
DEFINITION
The CFIB Business Barometer is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall health and confidence of small and medium-sized businesses in Canada. It provides valuable insights into the current economic climate and future outlook for these businesses, making it a valuable tool for investors, policymakers, and business owners alike. With its comprehensive data and reliable methodology, the CFIB Business Barometer is a trusted source for understanding the state of the Canadian business landscape.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 57.6, consensus 56. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 58.3. Before that (Jun 2026): 49.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P/TSX Composite (Bearish S&P, r=-0.69) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.7 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 81.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.32 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.2 | 190.1 | 190.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -0.47 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1 | 237.5 | 240.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 18.5 | -5.8 | -5.80 | Low | |