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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada CFIB Business Barometer fell to 46.3 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Canada CFIB Business Barometer fell to 46.3 in May 2026, down 11.7 from April's 58 reading. The reading missed the 57.4 consensus by 11.1. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 50.98. CFIB Business Barometer is now the lowest in 11 months.
Latest Release
46.3
Actual
57.4
Consensus
58
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6.21
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 57.53
Actual: 46.3
Error: +11.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CFIB Business Barometer (Canada) was reported at 46.30 in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 57.40 by 11.10. The reading fell from the previous value of 58.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.48, ranging from 46.30 to 64.80 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 55.63, up from the prior three at 53.90. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.00) is lower than the prior year (σ 10.35). In May readings over the past 3 years, CFIB Business Barometer has averaged 47.57.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6.21.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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CFIB Business Barometer - CA
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About CFIB Business Barometer — Canada
DEFINITION
The CFIB Business Barometer is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall health and confidence of small and medium-sized businesses in Canada. It provides valuable insights into the current economic climate and future outlook for these businesses, making it a valuable tool for investors, policymakers, and business owners alike. With its comprehensive data and reliable methodology, the CFIB Business Barometer is a trusted source for understanding the state of the Canadian business landscape.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 46.3, consensus 57.4. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 58.5. Before that (Mar 2026): 55.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.