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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to -0.1% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Canada Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to -0.1% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, up 0.9% from December's -1.0% reading. The reading missed the 1.5% consensus by 1.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.7%.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
1.5
Consensus
-1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.85 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.5
Actual: -0.1
Error: +1.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Canada) was reported at -0.1% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.5% by 1.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.63%, up from the prior three at 0.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 20) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - CA
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Gross Domestic Product QoQ contracted by -0.100000% in Q1 2026, missing the 1.500000% estimate and improving from Q4 2025's -1.000000%. The slight contraction marks a moderation in economic decline compared to the previous quarter. Market focus now shifts to upcoming data releases and central bank signals amid ongoing economic challenges. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -0.1 %, consensus 1.5 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): -0.6 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, July 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3 | 2.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | 1 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |