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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChileChile Manufacturing Production YoY climbed to -2.5% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Chile Manufacturing Production YoY climbed to -2.5% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 1.9% from March's -4.4% reading. The print exceeded the -3.1% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.96%. Over the past 3 months, Manufacturing Production YoY averaged -3.75%, vs -1.67% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 19th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-2.5
Actual
-3.1
Consensus
-4.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -5.6
Actual: -2.5
Error: -3.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Production YoY (Chile) was reported at -2.5% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -3.1% by 0.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of -4.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.23%, ranging from -3.8% to 12% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -3.1%, down from the prior three at -0.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.3%) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.61%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing Production YoY has averaged 0.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Manufacturing Production YoY - CL
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About Manufacturing Production YoY — Chile
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total output of goods produced by the manufacturing sector over a 12-month period. This indicator is used to assess the health and growth of the manufacturing industry, which is a key driver of economic activity. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in production, while a negative YoY growth suggests a decline. This information is valuable for investors, policymakers, and businesses in making informed decisions about the state of the economy and potential investment opportunities.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -2.5 %, consensus -3.1 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -4.5 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.52) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.