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Data from World Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Current account balance (% of GDP) held to 1.42 Percentage of GDP in January 2023
World BankYearlyReleased January 2023
China Current account balance (% of GDP) held to 1.42 Percentage of GDP in January 2023.
Latest Release
1.42
Latest (2023)
1.42
Previous
World Bank
Source
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Copper | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) (China) was reported at 3.77 Percent in December 2025. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.47 Percent. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a yearly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.55 Percent, up from the prior three at 2.01 Percent. In December readings over the past 3 years, Current Account Balance (% of GDP) has averaged 2.55 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNY (Bullish CNY). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Aug 20) and Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Aug 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2025.
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Current account balance (% of GDP) - CN
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About Current account balance (% of GDP) — China
DEFINITION
China's Current Account Balance (% of GDP) rose to 3.769722 in 2025, surpassing the previous year's 2.468186. This increase signals a stronger external surplus compared to 2024. The data supports a stable outlook for China's external sector amid ongoing global economic adjustments. Updated 7/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released annually.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bullish CNY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:15 | CN | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium | |
| 01:15 | CN | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Medium | |
| 01:15 | CN | Prime Rate | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium | |