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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina M2 Money Supply YoY fell to 7.5% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
China M2 Money Supply YoY fell to 7.5% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.2% from July's 7.7% reading. The reading matched the 7.6% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 8.47%. Over the past 3 months, M2 Money Supply YoY averaged 7.8%, vs 8.55% in the prior 3-month window. M2 Money Supply YoY is now the lowest in 16 months.
Latest Release
7.5
Actual
7.6
Consensus
7.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.11 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 7.43
Actual: 7.5
Error: -0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
M2 Money Supply YoY (China) was reported at 7.5% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 7.6% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 7.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.38%, ranging from 7.5% to 9% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 7.73%, down from the prior three at 8.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.48%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.71%). In September readings over the past 3 years, M2 Money Supply YoY has averaged 7.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include FDI (Sep 17) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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M2 Money Supply YoY - CN
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About M2 Money Supply YoY — China
DEFINITION
M2 Money Supply YoY is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the amount of money in circulation in an economy. It includes all physical currency, checking and savings deposits, and other liquid assets. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it provides insight into the overall health and growth of an economy. A higher M2 Money Supply YoY can indicate increased economic activity and potential inflation, while a lower reading may suggest a slowing economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 7.5 %, consensus 7.6 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 7.7 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 7.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |