Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina M2 Money Supply YoY fell to 8.0% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
China M2 Money Supply YoY fell to 8.0% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.6% from May's 8.6% reading. The reading missed the 8.5% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 8.53%. Over the past 3 months, M2 Money Supply YoY averaged 8.6%, vs 8.8% in the prior 3-month window. M2 Money Supply YoY is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
8
Actual
8.5
Consensus
8.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 8.55
Actual: 8
Error: +0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
M2 Money Supply YoY (China) was reported at 8% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 8.5% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 8.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.59%, ranging from 8% to 9% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 8.4%, down from the prior three at 9%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.34%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.61%). In July readings over the past 3 years, M2 Money Supply YoY has averaged 7.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
M2 Money Supply YoY - CN
Loading chart data...
About M2 Money Supply YoY — China
DEFINITION
M2 Money Supply YoY is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the amount of money in circulation in an economy. It includes all physical currency, checking and savings deposits, and other liquid assets. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it provides insight into the overall health and growth of an economy. A higher M2 Money Supply YoY can indicate increased economic activity and potential inflation, while a lower reading may suggest a slowing economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 8 %, consensus 8.5 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 8.6 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 8.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 51.7 | 52 | 50.50 | High |