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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina M2 Money Supply YoY fell to 7.2% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
China M2 Money Supply YoY fell to 7.2% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.3% from August's 7.5% reading. The reading matched the 7.4% consensus. M2 Money Supply YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, M2 Money Supply YoY averaged 7.63%, vs 8.4% in the prior 3-month window. M2 Money Supply YoY is now the lowest in 17 months.
Latest Release
7.2
Actual
7.4
Consensus
7.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.11 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 7.33
Actual: 7.2
Error: +0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
M2 Money Supply YoY (China) was reported at 7.2% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 7.4% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 7.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.28%, ranging from 7.2% to 9% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 7.47%, down from the prior three at 8.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.58%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.68%). In October readings over the past 3 years, M2 Money Supply YoY has averaged 7.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, negatively correlated (Bearish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Services PMI (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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M2 Money Supply YoY - CN
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About M2 Money Supply YoY — China
DEFINITION
M2 Money Supply YoY is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the amount of money in circulation in an economy. It includes all physical currency, checking and savings deposits, and other liquid assets. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it provides insight into the overall health and growth of an economy. A higher M2 Money Supply YoY can indicate increased economic activity and potential inflation, while a lower reading may suggest a slowing economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 7.2 %, consensus 7.4 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 7.5 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 7.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.42) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 51.6 | 51.30 | High | |