Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina M2 Money Supply YoY held to 8.6% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
China M2 Money Supply YoY held to 8.6% in May 2026, released June 2026. The reading matched the 8.5% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.7%. Over the past 3 months, M2 Money Supply YoY averaged 8.53%, vs 8.8% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 75th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
8.6
Actual
8.5
Consensus
8.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 8.58
Actual: 8.6
Error: -0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
M2 Money Supply YoY (China) was reported at 8.6% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 8.5% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.62%, ranging from 8% to 9% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 8.73%, down from the prior three at 8.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.31%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.59%). In June readings over the past 3 years, M2 Money Supply YoY has averaged 7.85%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
M2 Money Supply YoY - CN
Loading chart data...
About M2 Money Supply YoY — China
DEFINITION
M2 Money Supply YoY is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the amount of money in circulation in an economy. It includes all physical currency, checking and savings deposits, and other liquid assets. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it provides insight into the overall health and growth of an economy. A higher M2 Money Supply YoY can indicate increased economic activity and potential inflation, while a lower reading may suggest a slowing economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 8.6 %, consensus 8.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 8.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 8.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.