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Data from World Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Real interest rate (%) climbed to 4.91 Percentage (%) in January 2023
World BankYearlyReleased January 2023
China Real interest rate (%) climbed to 4.91 Percentage (%) in January 2023, up 2.39 Percentage (%) from December's 2.52 Percentage (%) reading.
Latest Release
4.91
Latest (2023)
2.52
Previous
World Bank
Source
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Real Interest Rate (%) (China) was reported at 5.09 Percent in December 2024. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.88 Percent. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a yearly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.11 Percent, up from the prior three at 2.23 Percent.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (Jun 30) and NBS Manufacturing PMI (Jun 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2024.
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Real interest rate (%) - CN
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About Real interest rate (%) — China
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released annually.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, June 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | Current Account | 243.8 | 184.1 | 184.95 | Low | |
| Saturday, June 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | Industrial Profits YoY | 18.2 | 20 | 27.15 | Low | |
| Tuesday, June 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 50.5 | 50.50 | Medium | |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 50.5 | 50.7 | 50.70 | Low | |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 50 | 50.3 | 50.30 | High | |