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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CyprusCyprus Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY fell to 0.4% in May 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2025
Cyprus Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY fell to 0.4% in May 2025, released June 2025, down 1.0% from April's 1.4% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.9% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY has now declined for 6 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY averaged 1.75%, vs 2.77% in the prior 3-month window. Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY is now the lowest in 39 months.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.9
Consensus
1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.39 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2025
Predicted: 0.95
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY (Cyprus) was reported at 0.4% in June 2025. This missed the market consensus of 0.9% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.3%, down from the prior three at 2.77%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.39%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2025.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY - CY
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY — Cyprus
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the annual change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country. It takes into account the impact of price changes on both domestic and international markets, providing a more comprehensive view of inflation. This indicator is widely used by policymakers and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy and investment strategies. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY indicates a rise in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2025): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.9 %. Prior reading (Apr 2025): 1.4 %. Before that (Mar 2025): 2.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.