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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Czech RepublicCzech Republic External Debt climbed to 238.12B in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Czech Republic External Debt climbed to 238.12B in January 2026, released June 2026, up 3.73B from December's 234.39B reading. The reading matched the 237.4B consensus. External Debt has now risen for 12 consecutive months. External Debt is now the highest in 100 months.
Latest Release
238.12
Actual
237.4
Consensus
234.39
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.77 billion
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 237.4
Actual: 238.12
Error: -0.72
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
External Debt (Czech Republic) was reported at 238.12 billion in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 237.40 billion by 0.72 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 234.39 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 233.52 billion, up from the prior three at 212.69 billion. In June readings over the past 3 years, External Debt has averaged 214.10 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.77 billion.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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External Debt - CZ
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About External Debt — Czech Republic
DEFINITION
External debt is a financial indicator that measures the amount of money a country owes to foreign creditors. It includes both public and private debt and is an important measure of a country's financial stability and ability to repay its debts. This indicator is closely monitored by governments, investors, and international organizations to assess a country's economic health and potential risks. A high external debt can indicate a heavy reliance on foreign borrowing and may pose challenges for a country's economic growth and development.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 238.1 B, consensus 237.4 B. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 234.4 B. Before that (Jul 2025): 228.1 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CZ Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | CZ | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.10 | Low |
| 07:00 | CZ | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Low |
| 07:00 | CZ | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Low |
| 07:00 | CZ | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.10 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | CZ | M3 Money Supply YoY | 6.3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 5.55 | Low |