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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Czech RepublicCzech Republic External Debt climbed to 251.49B in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Czech Republic External Debt climbed to 251.49B in April 2026, released September 2026, up 13.05B from March's 238.44B reading. The reading matched the 239.7B consensus. External Debt has now risen for 13 consecutive months. External Debt is now the highest in 100 months.
Latest Release
251.49
Actual
239.7
Consensus
238.44
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.25 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 239.7
Actual: 251.49
Error: -11.79
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
External Debt (Czech Republic) was reported at 251.49 billion in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 239.70 billion by 11.79 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 238.44 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 241.33 billion, up from the prior three at 218.95 billion. In September readings over the past 3 years, External Debt has averaged 221.09 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.25 billion.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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External Debt - CZ
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About External Debt — Czech Republic
DEFINITION
External debt is a financial indicator that measures the amount of money a country owes to foreign creditors. It includes both public and private debt and is an important measure of a country's financial stability and ability to repay its debts. This indicator is closely monitored by governments, investors, and international organizations to assess a country's economic health and potential risks. A high external debt can indicate a heavy reliance on foreign borrowing and may pose challenges for a country's economic growth and development.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 251.5 B, consensus 239.7 B. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 238.1 B. Before that (Oct 2025): 234.4 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CZ Events
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | CZ | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low |
| 07:00 | CZ | Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.00 | Low |
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | CZ | Current Account | -17.2 | -34.17 | -20.4 | -18.80 | Low |