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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Czech RepublicCzech Republic GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 2.2% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Czech Republic GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 2.2% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 0.5% from December's 2.7% reading. The reading matched the 2.1% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.53%. Over the past 3 months, GDP Growth Rate YoY averaged 2.47%, vs 2.6% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 54th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.2
Actual
2.1
Consensus
2.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.18
Actual: 2.2
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Bullish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Bullish DAX | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Bullish FTSE 100 | → View |
| EUR/CZK | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Czech Republic) was reported at 2.2% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.1% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.56%, ranging from 2.2% to 2.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.5%, down from the prior three at 2.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.18%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.62%). In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 1.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - CZ
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Czech Republic
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 2.2 %, consensus 2.1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.1 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 2.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.41) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.