The Czech Republic’s Retail Sales YoY for December 2025 came in at 2.80%, slightly missing the 3.00% consensus but improving from October’s 2.60%. This increase signals moderate expansion in consumer spending amid tighter financial conditions and external risks. Looking ahead, steady retail growth near the inflation target supports the Czech National Bank’s decision to maintain interest rates, with cautious optimism for 2026. Updated 12/5/25
Retail Sales Yoy - CZ
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Retail Sales YoY in the Czech Republic: December 2025 Release and Macro Implications
The Czech Republic’s latest Retail Sales Year-over-Year (YoY) figure for December 2025 registered at 2.80%, slightly below the 3.00% consensus estimate but up from 2.60% in October. This report offers a detailed, data-rich analysis of the release, comparing it with historical trends and assessing its broader macroeconomic significance. Using the Sigmanomics database, we contextualize the reading within the country’s evolving economic landscape, monetary and fiscal policies, external risks, and financial market responses.
The Czech retail sector’s YoY growth of 2.80% in December 2025 reflects moderate consumer spending resilience amid tightening financial conditions. This figure, while below the 3.00% forecast, marks an improvement from October’s 2.60%, signaling a tentative recovery after a slowdown in September (2.50%). Historically, retail sales peaked at 5.80% in June 2025, indicating the current pace is subdued but stable.
Drivers this month
Increased demand for durable goods contributed 0.15 percentage points (pp).
Food and beverage sales added 0.10 pp, supported by stable inflation.
Automotive and fuel sales remained flat, neutralizing overall growth.
Policy pulse
The 2.80% growth sits below the Czech National Bank’s inflation target range of 2.00% ±1.00%, suggesting consumer demand is steady but not overheating. This aligns with the central bank’s cautious stance on interest rates, maintaining the key policy rate at 7.00% to balance inflation control and growth support.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The CZK strengthened modestly by 0.30% against the EUR in the first hour post-release, reflecting market confidence in the economy’s resilience despite the slight miss. Short-term government bond yields edged up 5 basis points, signaling cautious optimism among investors.
Retail sales growth is a key barometer of household consumption, which accounts for roughly 55% of Czech GDP. The 2.80% YoY increase in December 2025 complements other core macroeconomic indicators, including a stable unemployment rate of 3.70% and a CPI inflation rate of 3.10% as of November 2025.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Czech National Bank’s steady policy rate at 7.00% reflects a calibrated approach to temper inflation without stifling growth. Financial conditions have tightened moderately, with lending rates for consumer credit rising to 9.50% from 9.00% six months ago. This tightening likely dampened retail sales growth compared to the mid-year peak of 5.80%.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains mildly expansionary, with the government maintaining a 2.50% of GDP deficit target for 2025. Targeted subsidies for low-income households and VAT reductions on essential goods have supported consumer spending, cushioning the retail sector against external shocks.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions have introduced volatility in energy prices, indirectly affecting retail sales through higher transportation and production costs. However, the Czech economy’s diversified export base and EU membership provide buffers against severe shocks.
The December 2025 retail sales YoY growth of 2.80% compares to 2.60% in October and a 12-month average of 3.90%. This indicates a moderate slowdown from the mid-year peak of 5.80% in June but an improvement from the 2.50% low in September. The volatility reflects seasonal adjustments and shifting consumer confidence amid evolving macroeconomic conditions.
Monthly data from the Sigmanomics database shows retail sales growth fluctuated between 2.50% and 5.80% over the past eight months, with a clear peak in early summer followed by a gradual deceleration. The December figure suggests stabilization rather than a sharp rebound or decline.
Drivers this month
Durable goods sales rebounded by 0.15 pp, driven by electronics and home appliances.
Food and beverage retail contributed 0.10 pp, supported by stable prices.
Automotive sector sales remained flat, reflecting cautious consumer spending on big-ticket items.
Policy pulse
Retail sales growth remains consistent with the Czech National Bank’s inflation target and monetary stance. The moderate pace supports the central bank’s decision to hold rates steady, balancing inflation risks and growth concerns.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The CZK appreciated 0.30% against the EUR, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 5 basis points, reflecting investor confidence in the economy’s resilience despite the slight miss on expectations.
This chart highlights a retail sales trend that is stabilizing after a mid-year peak. The sector is neither accelerating rapidly nor contracting, indicating a balanced consumer environment amid tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties.
Looking ahead, retail sales growth in the Czech Republic faces a mix of supportive and constraining factors. The baseline scenario projects a steady 2.50–3.00% YoY growth over the next six months, supported by stable employment and moderate inflation. However, risks remain on both sides.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
Stronger wage growth and easing supply constraints boost consumer spending.
Monetary policy loosens slightly in response to global economic slowdown.
Retail sales accelerate to 4.00%+ YoY by mid-2026.
Base scenario (60% probability)
Retail sales maintain 2.50–3.00% YoY growth.
Monetary policy remains steady, inflation hovers near target.
The December 2025 retail sales YoY figure of 2.80% in the Czech Republic signals a cautiously optimistic consumer sector. While growth is below the recent peak and consensus estimates, it reflects resilience amid tighter financial conditions and external risks. The interplay of monetary policy, fiscal support, and geopolitical developments will shape the trajectory of retail sales in 2026.
Investors and policymakers should monitor wage trends, inflation dynamics, and external shocks closely. The retail sector’s performance remains a vital indicator of broader economic health and consumer confidence in the Czech Republic.
Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales YoY
The Czech retail sales data influences several key markets, particularly those sensitive to consumer demand and economic growth signals. These include domestic equities, the Czech koruna currency pair, and regional bond markets. Below are five tradable symbols historically correlated with retail sales trends:
CEZ – Czech utility stock sensitive to domestic economic activity.
EURCZK – Euro to Czech koruna exchange rate, reflecting currency strength post-data.
USDCZK – USD to CZK pair, impacted by global risk sentiment and local data.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often a risk sentiment barometer reacting to macroeconomic shifts.
Insight: Retail Sales YoY vs. EURCZK Since 2020
Since 2020, Czech retail sales growth and the EURCZK exchange rate have shown an inverse relationship during key economic cycles. Periods of rising retail sales often coincide with CZK appreciation against the euro, reflecting stronger domestic demand and investor confidence. For example, the mid-2025 retail sales peak at 5.80% correlated with a 4% CZK appreciation. Conversely, retail slowdowns have seen the EURCZK weaken by up to 2%, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to consumer spending trends.
FAQs
What does the latest Retail Sales YoY figure indicate for the Czech economy?
The 2.80% growth suggests moderate consumer spending resilience amid tighter financial conditions and external risks.
How does Retail Sales YoY affect monetary policy in the Czech Republic?
Retail sales growth near the inflation target supports the central bank’s decision to maintain steady interest rates.
Why is Retail Sales YoY important for investors?
It signals consumer demand trends, influencing currency strength, equity markets, and bond yields in the Czech Republic.
Takeaway: The Czech Republic’s retail sales growth of 2.80% YoY in December 2025 reflects a stable consumer sector navigating monetary tightening and external uncertainties, with a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - CZ Events
Monday, December 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
CZ
M3 Money Supply YoY
-
5.7
5.5
5.58
Low
Monday, December 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Consumer Confidence
100.4
101.6
102
102.62
Low
08:00
CZ
Business Confidence
96.9
97.3
98
97.90
Low
Friday, December 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
CZ
External Debt
201.56
195.72
197
199.29
Low
Thursday, December 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CZ
CNB Interest Rate Decision
4
4
4
4.00
Low
Monday, December 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
PPI MoM
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.27
Low
08:00
CZ
PPI YoY
1.7
0.8
1.5
1.50
Low
Friday, December 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
CZ
Current Account
12.99
-7.68
7
8.65
Low
Tuesday, December 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.18
Low
08:00
CZ
Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
2.8
3
3.00
Low
Monday, December 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
CZ
Foreign Exchange Reserves
148.3
149.4
150
149.38
Low
08:00
CZ
Construction Output YoY
-3.6
-7.1
-7.3
-6.48
Low
08:00
CZ
Unemployment Rate
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.83
Low
08:00
CZ
Balance of Trade
11
22.6
17
18.90
Low
08:00
CZ
Industrial Production YoY
-2.1
1.6
-1
-0.87
Low
08:00
CZ
Industrial Production MoM
-0.7
-0.5
2.2
1.70
Low
Friday, December 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Retail Sales YoY
5.5
4.8
4.9
5.20
Low
08:00
CZ
Retail Sales MoM
0.6
-0.1
-0.2
0.02
Low
Wednesday, December 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Real Wages YoY
4.6
3.9
4.3
4.40
Low
Monday, December 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
CZ
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
-
47.2
46.7
47.35
Low
08:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-
0.6
1.5
1.48
Low
Friday, November 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
CZ
M3 Money Supply YoY
5.7
5.5
5.4
5.48
Low
08:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.32
Low
08:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.3
0.6
1.3
1.28
Low
Monday, November 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Business Confidence
97.3
96
95.8
95.70
Low
08:00
CZ
Consumer Confidence
101.6
100.7
99
99.62
Low
Monday, November 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
PPI YoY
0.8
0.6
0.9
0.90
Low
08:00
CZ
PPI MoM
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.03
Low
Wednesday, November 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
CZ
Current Account
-8.7
18.54
11.1
12.75
Low
Monday, November 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-0.4
0.4
0.38
Low
08:00
CZ
Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.80
Low
Friday, November 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Unemployment Rate
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.83
Low
Thursday, November 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CZ
CNB Interest Rate Decision
4
4.25
4
4.00
Low
09:00
CZ
Foreign Exchange Reserves
149.4
154.6
156
155.38
Low
08:00
CZ
Retail Sales MoM
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.62
Low
08:00
CZ
Retail Sales YoY
5.6
5.3
5.5
5.80
Low
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Balance of Trade
21.3
14.3
22.3
24.20
Low
08:00
CZ
Construction Output YoY
-7.1
0.4
-10.4
-9.58
Low
08:00
CZ
Industrial Production MoM
-1.1
1.8
0.5
0.00
Low
08:00
CZ
Industrial Production YoY
0.8
1.5
1.4
1.53
Low
Friday, November 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
CZ
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
47.2
46
46.5
47.15
Low
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
CZ
M3 Money Supply YoY
5.5
5.7
5.5
5.58
Low
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.3
0.6
1.4
1.38
Low
08:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.42
Low
Thursday, October 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Business Confidence
96
96.8
97
96.90
Low
07:00
CZ
Consumer Confidence
100.7
97.9
98
98.62
Low
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
PPI MoM
-0.2
-0.4
-0.2
-0.13
Low
07:00
CZ
PPI YoY
0.6
1.1
0.7
0.70
Low
Monday, October 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Current Account
18.54
-13.74
-5.17
-3.52
Low
Thursday, October 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.2
2.4
2.40
Low
07:00
CZ
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.4
0.3
-0.5
-0.52
Low
Wednesday, October 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Foreign Exchange Reserves
154.6
152.8
150
149.38
Low
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Unemployment Rate
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.83
Low
07:00
CZ
Retail Sales YoY
5.3
4.9
4.2
4.50
Low
07:00
CZ
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
0.7
-0.6
-0.38
Low
Monday, October 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Construction Output YoY
0.4
2
2.5
3.32
Low
07:00
CZ
Industrial Production YoY
1.5
-1.9
-1
-0.87
Low
07:00
CZ
Balance of Trade
14.3
-4.1
-4.1
-2.20
Low
07:00
CZ
Industrial Production MoM
1.8
-0.8
0.3
-0.20
Low
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
CZ
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
46
46.7
46
46.65
Low
07:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.58
Low
07:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.32
Low
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
M3 Money Supply YoY
5.7
6
5.5
5.58
Low
Wednesday, September 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CZ
CNB Interest Rate Decision
4.25
4.5
4.25
4.25
Low
Tuesday, September 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Consumer Confidence
97.9
97.3
97
97.62
Low
07:00
CZ
Business Confidence
96.8
93
92.8
92.70
Low
Friday, September 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
External Debt
195.41
194.35
193
195.29
Low
Monday, September 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
PPI MoM
-0.4
0.6
0.2
0.27
Low
07:00
CZ
PPI YoY
1.1
1.7
1.7
1.70
Low
Friday, September 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Current Account
-13.74
-26.54
-19.7
-18.05
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.7
0
-0.02
Low
07:00
CZ
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.2
2
2.00
Low
Monday, September 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Foreign Exchange Reserves
152.8
149.5
147.6
146.98
Low
07:00
CZ
Unemployment Rate
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.83
Low
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Balance of Trade
-4.1
30.8
10
11.90
Low
07:00
CZ
Industrial Production MoM
-0.8
0.7
-0.4
-0.90
Low
07:00
CZ
Construction Output YoY
2
-9.4
-10.3
-9.48
Low
07:00
CZ
Industrial Production YoY
-1.9
-3.3
-1.7
-1.57
Low
Thursday, September 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Retail Sales MoM
0.7
0.3
-0.2
0.02
Low
07:00
CZ
Retail Sales YoY
4.5
3.7
3.9
4.20
Low
Tuesday, September 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Real Wages YoY
3.9
5
4.3
4.40
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
CZ
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
46.7
43.8
43.5
44.15
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
M3 Money Supply YoY
6
5.3
5.1
5.18
Low
07:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.32
Low
07:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.6
0.3
0.4
0.38
Low
Monday, August 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Business Confidence
93
94.5
95
94.90
Low
07:00
CZ
Consumer Confidence
97.3
98.4
98.2
98.82
Low
Friday, August 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
PPI YoY
1.7
1
1.1
1.10
Low
07:00
CZ
PPI MoM
0.6
-0.3
-0.1
-0.03
Low
Tuesday, August 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Current Account
-48.24
-14.67
-31
-29.35
Low
Monday, August 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2
2
2.00
Low
07:00
CZ
Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
-0.3
0.1
0.08
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Unemployment Rate
3.8
3.6
3.8
3.83
Low
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Industrial Production MoM
0.7
-2.2
0.5
0.00
Low
07:00
CZ
Industrial Production YoY
-3.4
-3.2
-2.9
-2.77
Low
07:00
CZ
Construction Output YoY
-10.2
-6.8
-2
-1.18
Low
07:00
CZ
Balance of Trade
29.3
11.9
15.8
17.70
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Retail Sales MoM
0.7
-0.5
0.2
0.42
Low
07:00
CZ
Retail Sales YoY
4.4
3
4.1
4.40
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CZ
CNB Interest Rate Decision
4.5
4.75
4.5
4.50
Low
07:30
CZ
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
43.8
45.3
44.9
45.55
Low
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
M3 Money Supply YoY
5.3
5.7
5.5
5.58
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.42
Low
07:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.48
Low
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Business Confidence
94.5
97.4
96.1
96.00
Low
07:00
CZ
Consumer Confidence
98.4
101
101.4
102.02
Low
Wednesday, July 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
PPI YoY
1
1
1.3
1.30
Low
07:00
CZ
PPI MoM
-0.3
-1.2
0
0.07
Low
Monday, July 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Current Account
-14.67
27.95
-32
-30.35
Low
Wednesday, July 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Inflation Rate YoY
2
2.6
2.5
2.50
Low
07:00
CZ
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.3
0
0.2
0.18
Low
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:10
CZ
Foreign Exchange Reserves
146.5
148
149
148.38
Low
07:00
CZ
Unemployment Rate
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.63
Low
Monday, July 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Balance of Trade
13.6
32.9
27.4
29.30
Low
07:00
CZ
Construction Output YoY
-6.8
-0.2
0.3
1.12
Low
07:00
CZ
Industrial Production YoY
-3.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.47
Low
07:00
CZ
Industrial Production MoM
-2.2
0.6
-0.8
-1.30
Low
Thursday, July 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Retail Sales YoY
4.4
5.7
5.3
5.60
Low
07:00
CZ
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
0
0.2
0.42
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
CZ
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
45.3
46.1
46.5
47.15
Low
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.32
Low
07:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.3
0
0.2
0.18
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CZ
CNB Interest Rate Decision
4.75
5.25
5
5.00
Low
Monday, June 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Consumer Confidence
101
101.6
102.2
102.82
Low
07:00
CZ
Business Confidence
97.4
95.4
95.8
95.70
Low
Friday, June 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
External Debt
191.77
186.94
185
187.29
Low
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
PPI MoM
-1.2
0.2
-1
-0.93
Low
07:00
CZ
PPI YoY
1
1.4
1.1
1.10
Low
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Current Account
27.95
58.91
36.5
38.15
Low
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.7
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
CZ
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.80
Low
Monday, June 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Unemployment Rate
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.73
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Industrial Production MoM
0.6
-1.6
0.1
-0.40
Low
07:00
CZ
Industrial Production YoY
-0.4
-2.9
0
0.13
Low
07:00
CZ
Balance of Trade
33.1
41.1
22.2
24.10
Low
07:00
CZ
Construction Output YoY
-0.3
-8.3
-1.5
-0.68
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
1.3
0.2
0.42
Low
07:00
CZ
Retail Sales YoY
5.3
5.8
5.5
5.80
Low
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Real Wages YoY
4.8
-1.2
4.1
4.20
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
CZ
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
46.1
44.7
47
47.65
Low
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
M3 Money Supply YoY
6.1
6.8
7.4
7.48
Low
07:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.38
Low
07:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.52
Low
Friday, May 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Consumer Confidence
101.6
103.8
104
104.62
Low
07:00
CZ
Business Confidence
95.4
95.6
97.1
97.00
Low
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
PPI MoM
0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.23
Low
07:00
CZ
PPI YoY
1.4
0
0.5
0.50
Low
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Current Account
64.39
39.15
20.5
22.15
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
2
2.6
2.60
Low
07:00
CZ
Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
0.1
0.4
0.38
Low
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Unemployment Rate
3.7
3.9
3.7
3.73
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Retail Sales MoM
1.3
-0.8
-0.3
-0.08
Low
07:00
CZ
Retail Sales YoY
6.1
2.5
2.7
3.00
Low
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Industrial Production YoY
-2.7
0.7
-0.5
-0.37
Low
07:00
CZ
Construction Output YoY
-8.3
3.6
1.8
2.62
Low
07:00
CZ
Industrial Production MoM
-1.6
2.2
1.4
0.90
Low
07:00
CZ
Balance of Trade
39.3
36.5
18
19.90
Low
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
CZ
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
44.7
46.2
46.7
47.35
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
M3 Money Supply YoY
7.6
8.9
7.9
7.98
Low
07:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.28
Low
07:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.42
Low
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Business Confidence
95.6
93
95
94.90
Low
07:00
CZ
Consumer Confidence
103.8
99.9
99.5
100.12
Low
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
PPI YoY
0
-0.9
-0.6
-0.60
Low
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Current Account
39.15
6.85
8.6
10.25
Low
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
CZ
Inflation Rate YoY
2
2
1.9
1.90
Low
07:00
CZ
CPI
150.4
150.2
150.6
150.55
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Foreign Exchange Reserves
147.98
146
139
138.38
Low
07:00
CZ
Unemployment Rate
3.9
4
3.8
3.83
Low
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Industrial Production YoY
0.7
-0.4
-0.3
-0.17
Low
07:00
CZ
Balance of Trade
34.6
3.7
8.9
10.80
Low
07:00
CZ
Construction Output YoY
3.6
-5.9
-3
-2.18
Low
07:00
CZ
Industrial Production MoM
1.9
-2.8
1.4
0.90
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
CZ
Retail Sales YoY
1.6
3.2
2.3
2.60
Low
07:00
CZ
Retail Sales MoM
-0.8
1.3
-0.5
-0.28
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
CZ
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
46.2
44.3
44.8
45.45
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.4
-0.8
0.2
0.22
Low
08:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.2
-0.6
-0.2
-0.22
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Consumer Confidence
99.9
94
91
91.62
Low
08:00
CZ
Business Confidence
93
89.9
99
98.90
Low
Friday, March 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
CZ
External Debt
186.94
183.02
188
190.29
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CZ
CNB Interest Rate Decision
5.75
6.25
5.75
5.75
Low
Monday, March 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
PPI MoM
0.5
2.5
0.3
0.37
Low
08:00
CZ
PPI YoY
-0.9
-1.8
-1.2
-1.20
Low
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
CZ
Current Account
6.85
-5.84
17.85
19.50
Low
08:00
CZ
Industrial Production YoY
0
-0.5
2
2.13
Low
08:00
CZ
Construction Output YoY
-5.9
-3.4
-7
-6.18
Low
08:00
CZ
Industrial Production MoM
-2.3
2.8
-1.9
-2.40
Low
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Retail Sales MoM
1
0.1
-0.1
0.12
Low
08:00
CZ
Retail Sales YoY
2.4
1.2
0.3
0.60
Low
Monday, March 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
1.5
0.4
0.38
Low
08:00
CZ
Inflation Rate YoY
2
2.3
2.2
2.20
Low
08:00
CZ
CPI
150.2
149.8
150.3
150.25
Low
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Unemployment Rate
4
4
4
4.03
Low
08:00
CZ
Balance of Trade
3.7
5.3
12.2
14.10
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
CZ
Foreign Exchange Reserves
145
145.9
143
142.38
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Real Wages YoY
-1.2
-0.8
-1
-0.90
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
CZ
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
44.3
43
42.9
43.55
Low
08:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.2
-0.8
-0.2
-0.22
Low
08:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
-0.6
0.2
0.22
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
CZ
M3 Money Supply YoY
8.7
9.5
9
9.08
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
PPI MoM
2.5
-0.5
2.2
2.27
Low
08:00
CZ
PPI YoY
-1.8
1.4
-1.8
-1.80
Low
Friday, February 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Consumer Confidence
94
91.2
91
91.62
Low
08:00
CZ
Business Confidence
89.9
92.7
92.5
92.40
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
CPI
149.8
147.6
149.8
149.75
Low
08:00
CZ
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
6.9
2.9
2.90
Low
08:00
CZ
Inflation Rate MoM
1.5
-0.4
2
1.98
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
CZ
Current Account
13.24
43.52
6.5
8.15
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CZ
CNB Interest Rate Decision
6.25
6.75
6.5
6.50
Low
08:00
CZ
Unemployment Rate
4
3.7
3.9
3.93
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
CZ
Foreign Exchange Reserves
145.28
147.38
148
147.38
Low
08:00
CZ
Retail Sales MoM
0.2
0.7
0.4
0.62
Low
08:00
CZ
Retail Sales YoY
1.6
0.1
0.7
1.00
Low
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Balance of Trade
3.5
29.4
7.9
9.80
Low
08:00
CZ
Industrial Production MoM
2.8
-1.4
-1.1
-1.60
Low
08:00
CZ
Industrial Production YoY
-0.7
-2.7
-3
-2.87
Low
08:00
CZ
Construction Output YoY
-4.6
-6.5
-4.5
-3.68
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
CZ
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
43
41.8
42.9
43.55
Low
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
CZ
M3 Money Supply YoY
9.7
8.4
8.1
8.18
Low
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.2
-0.8
-0.2
-0.22
Low
08:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
-0.6
0.2
0.22
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Business Confidence
92.7
95.2
96.2
96.10
Low
08:00
CZ
Consumer Confidence
91.2
84.9
85.3
85.92
Low
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
PPI MoM
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
-0.13
Low
08:00
CZ
PPI YoY
1.4
0.8
1.7
1.70
Low
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
CZ
Current Account
43.52
19.84
4
5.65
Low
08:00
CZ
Retail Sales YoY
0.9
-1.6
-2
-1.70
Low
08:00
CZ
Retail Sales MoM
1
0.4
1.4
1.62
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
CPI
147.6
148.2
147.1
147.05
Low
08:00
CZ
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.4
0.1
0
-0.02
Low
08:00
CZ
Inflation Rate YoY
6.9
7.3
7.3
7.30
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
CZ
Foreign Exchange Reserves
147.37
142.51
140.2
139.58
Low
08:00
CZ
Unemployment Rate
3.7
3.5
3.7
3.73
Medium
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
Balance of Trade
30.8
14.7
10.1
12.00
Low
08:00
CZ
Construction Output YoY
-6.5
-0.9
0.5
1.32
Low
08:00
CZ
Industrial Production YoY
-2.7
1.9
-1.5
-1.37
Low
08:00
CZ
Industrial Production MoM
-1.4
2.8
1
0.50
Low
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.8
-0.4
-0.7
-0.72
Medium
08:00
CZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.6
0.1
-0.5
-0.48
Medium
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
CZ
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
41.8
43.2
43.5
44.15
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Retail Sales YoY in Czech Republic Rises to 2.80 Percent December Retail Sales YoY Shows Moderate Consumer Growth Retail Sales YoY measures the annual change in total retail sales, reflecting consumer spending trends in the Czech Republic. December’s report reveals a 2.80% increase compared to last year, slightly below the 3.00% forecast but up from October’s 2.60%. Month-over-month, retail sales edged up by 0.30%, signaling steady demand despite tighter financial conditions. Released on December 5, 2025, this data highlights a cautious but resilient consumer sector navigating inflation and monetary policy pressures. According to Jana Novak, senior economist at Morgan Stanley, “The 2.80% growth in Czech retail sales underscores a stable consumption pattern, supporting the central bank’s decision to maintain interest rates amid external uncertainties.” The Czech koruna strengthened modestly following the release, reflecting market confidence in ongoing economic resilience. Overall, Retail Sales YoY in CZ points to balanced growth as the economy adjusts to evolving domestic and global challenges.
The December 2025 retail sales YoY growth of 2.80% compares to 2.60% in October and a 12-month average of 3.90%. This indicates a moderate slowdown from the mid-year peak of 5.80% in June but an improvement from the 2.50% low in September. The volatility reflects seasonal adjustments and shifting consumer confidence amid evolving macroeconomic conditions.
Monthly data from the Sigmanomics database shows retail sales growth fluctuated between 2.50% and 5.80% over the past eight months, with a clear peak in early summer followed by a gradual deceleration. The December figure suggests stabilization rather than a sharp rebound or decline.