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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Czech RepublicCzech Republic Trade Balance climbed to 29.7B in September 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased November 2025
Czech Republic Trade Balance climbed to 29.7B in September 2025, released November 2025, up 24.1B from August's 5.6B reading. The print exceeded the 23.5B consensus by 6.2B. Trade Balance has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Trade Balance averaged 1.95B, vs 20.93B in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
29.7
Actual
23.5
Consensus
5.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.63 billion
across last 8 releases
Last Call
Nov 2025
Predicted: 24.4
Actual: 29.7
Error: -5.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (Czech Republic) was reported at 29.70 billion in November 2025. This beat the market consensus of 23.50 billion by 6.20 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.60 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through November 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 11.20 billion, down from the prior three at 20.93 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 8 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.63 billion.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update November 2025.
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Trade Balance - CZ
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About Trade Balance — Czech Republic
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2025): actual 29.7 B, consensus 23.5 B. Prior reading (Aug 2025): 5.6 B. Before that (Jul 2025): -1.7 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.