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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.9% in July 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased July 2026
Germany Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.9% in July 2026, up 1.1% from June's -0.2% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.8% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.28%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged -0.02%, vs 0.6% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.9
Actual
0.8
Consensus
-0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.02 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.74
Actual: 0.9
Error: -0.16
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Germany) was reported at 0.9% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.22%, ranging from -0.5% to 1.2% across 24 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.17%, up from the prior three at 0.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.43%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.4%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.02%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Aug 3) and Retail Sales YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - DE
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — Germany
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.9 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.75 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | High |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | High |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:55 | DE | Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.35 | Medium |
| 07:55 | DE | Employment Change | 6 | -1 | 5 | 5.50 | Medium |
| 07:55 | DE | Unemployed Persons | 2.993 | 2.987 | 2.989 | 2.99 | Medium |