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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.2% in August 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased September 2026
Germany Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.2% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.7% from July's 0.9% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.43%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.32%, vs 0.53% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 43rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.18
Actual: 0.2
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Germany) was reported at 0.2% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.2% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.23%, ranging from -0.5% to 1.2% across 24 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, up from the prior three at 0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.45%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.38%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.04%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Wholesale Prices MoM (Sep 15) and Wholesale Prices YoY (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - DE
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — Germany
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Thursday, September 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | DE | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |
| 06:00 | DE | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 06:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |
| 06:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| Friday, September 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | DE | Current Account | 19 | 18.7 | 15.50 | Low | |