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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.1% in May 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased May 2026
Germany Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.1% in May 2026, down 0.6% from April's 0.5% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.2% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.28%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.76%, vs 0.02% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.02 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.2
Actual: -0.1
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Germany) was reported at -0.1% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.23%, ranging from -0.5% to 1.2% across 23 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.53%, down from the prior three at 0.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.39%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.39%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.32%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.02%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Factory Orders MoM (Jun 8) and Bundesbank Balz Speech (Jun 8).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - DE
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — Germany
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.1 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.5 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.