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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.6% in September 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased October 2026
Germany Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.6% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.4% from August's 0.2% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.37%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.56%, vs 0.07% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 86th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.6
Actual
0.6
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.61
Actual: 0.6
Error: +0.01
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Germany) was reported at 0.6% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.6% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.27%, ranging from -0.5% to 1.2% across 23 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.47%, down from the prior three at 0.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.47%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.36%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 30) and Inflation Rate MoM (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - DE
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — Germany
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.6 %, consensus 0.6 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | DE | Import Prices MoM | 2.1 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | DE | Import Prices YoY | 10.4 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 10.35 | Low |
| 08:55 | DE | Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.43 | High |
| 08:55 | DE | Unemployed Persons | 3.016 | 3.012 | 3.017 | 3.02 | Medium |
| 08:55 | DE | Employment Change | 4 | 12 | 5 | 5.00 | High |
| 09:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 09:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.2 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.15 | High |