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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany HICP MoM fell to 0.2% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Germany HICP MoM fell to 0.2% in August 2026, down 0.7% from July's 0.9% reading. The reading missed the 0.3% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.45%. Over the past 3 months, HICP MoM averaged 0.26%, vs 0.59% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 42nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.28
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
HICP MoM (Germany) was reported at 0.2% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.19%, ranging from -0.5% to 1.2% across 19 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.67%, up from the prior three at -0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.45%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.2%). In August readings over the past 3 years, HICP MoM has averaged 0.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 30) and Inflation Rate MoM (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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HICP MoM - DE
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About HICP MoM — Germany
DEFINITION
Germany's HICP MoM for August came in at 0.200000%, missing the 0.300000% estimate and down from July's 0.900000%. August's reading signals a sharp deceleration in inflation momentum compared to the prior month. Market focus will remain on upcoming ECB policy decisions amid easing price pressures. Updated 8/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR, r=-0.42) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | DE | Import Prices MoM | 2.1 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | DE | Import Prices YoY | 10.4 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 10.35 | Low |
| 08:55 | DE | Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.43 | High |
| 08:55 | DE | Unemployed Persons | 3.016 | 3.012 | 3.017 | 3.02 | Medium |
| 08:55 | DE | Employment Change | 4 | 12 | 5 | 5.00 | High |
| 09:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 09:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.2 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.15 | High |