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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany HICP YoY climbed to 2.9% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Germany HICP YoY climbed to 2.9% in August 2026, up 0.1% from July's 2.8% reading. The reading missed the 3.1% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.6%. Over the past 3 months, HICP YoY averaged 2.62%, vs 2.59% in the prior 3-month window. HICP YoY is now the highest in 17 months.
Latest Release
2.9
Actual
3.1
Consensus
2.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.03 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.08
Actual: 2.9
Error: +0.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HICP YoY (Germany) was reported at 2.9% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.1% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.44%, ranging from 2% to 2.9% across 21 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.83%, up from the prior three at 2.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.31%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.3%). In August readings over the past 3 years, HICP YoY has averaged 2.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.03%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Wholesale Prices MoM (Sep 15) and Wholesale Prices YoY (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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HICP YoY - DE
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About HICP YoY — Germany
DEFINITION
Germany's HICP YoY for August came in at 2.900000%, missing the 3.100000% estimate but rising from July's 2.800000%. The inflation rate shows a modest acceleration compared to the previous month, indicating a slight upward trend in consumer prices. Market focus remains on upcoming ECB policy decisions amid persistent inflation pressures. Updated 8/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 2.9 %, consensus 3.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.8 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 2.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | DE | Wholesale Prices MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.60 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | DE | Wholesale Prices YoY | 5.3 | 6.2 | 5.35 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | DE | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 34.2 | 37 | 45.25 | High | |
| 09:00 | DE | ZEW Current Conditions | -61.1 | -52.2 | -53.70 | Low | |
| 09:00 | DE | Economic Sentiment | 34.2 | 42.7 | 50.85 | Medium | |