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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany HICP YoY climbed to 2.8% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Germany HICP YoY climbed to 2.8% in July 2026, up 0.4% from June's 2.4% reading. The reading matched the 2.8% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.48%. Over the past 3 months, HICP YoY averaged 2.62%, vs 2.37% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.8
Actual
2.8
Consensus
2.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.02 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.77
Actual: 2.8
Error: -0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HICP YoY (Germany) was reported at 2.8% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.8% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.32%, ranging from 1.8% to 2.9% across 23 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.53%, down from the prior three at 2.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.32%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.28%). In July readings over the past 3 years, HICP YoY has averaged 2.25%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.02%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Aug 3) and Retail Sales YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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HICP YoY - DE
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About HICP YoY — Germany
DEFINITION
Germany's HICP YoY for July rose to 2.8%, matching estimates and up from June's 2.4%, signaling a rebound in inflation. This increase reverses the prior month's decline and suggests renewed price pressures in the Eurozone's largest economy. Market focus will remain on ECB policy as inflation dynamics shift. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.8 %, consensus 2.8 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 2.4 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 2.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.75 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | DE | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | High |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | HICP YoY | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 12:00 | DE | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Medium |
| 12:00 | DE | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | High |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:55 | DE | Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.35 | Medium |
| 07:55 | DE | Employment Change | 6 | -1 | 5 | 5.50 | Medium |
| 07:55 | DE | Unemployed Persons | 2.993 | 2.987 | 2.989 | 2.99 | Medium |