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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.5% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Spain Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.5% in October 2026, down 0.1% from September's 0.6% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.43%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.5%, vs 0.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 58th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.48
Actual: 0.5
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Spain) was reported at 0.5% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.5% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.31%, ranging from -0.8% to 1.5% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.57%, up from the prior three at 0.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.48%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.33%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.35%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and Consumer Confidence (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - ES
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — Spain
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (Sep 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - ES Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:15 | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51 | 50.8 | 50.90 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | ES | New Car Sales YoY | 10.2 | 13.5 | 16.20 | Low | |
| 12:00 | ES | New Car Sales YoY | 10.2 | 13.5 | 16.20 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | ES | Consumer Confidence | 84.1 | 83.4 | 83.40 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | ES | Employment Change | 23.587 | 25.3 | 45.20 | High | |
| 08:00 | ES | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 9.2 | 1.2 | -2.25 | Low | |
| 08:15 | ES | S&P Global Services PMI | 58.3 | 57.2 | 58.90 | Medium | |
| 08:15 | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI | 56.8 | 56 | 57.40 | Low | |