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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.7% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Spain Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.7% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.7% from July's 0.0% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.6% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.34%, vs 0.8% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 86th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.7
Actual
0.6
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.62
Actual: 0.7
Error: -0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Spain) was reported at 0.7% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.6% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.27%, ranging from -0.8% to 1.5% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, up from the prior three at 0.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.47%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.34%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.22%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 22) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - ES
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — Spain
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.6 %, consensus 0.6 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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