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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.1% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Spain Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.1% in May 2026, down 0.6% from April's 0.7% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.2% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.38%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 1.0%, vs -0.08% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 41st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.1
Actual: 0.1
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Spain) was reported at 0.1% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.19%, ranging from -0.8% to 1.5% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.77%, up from the prior three at 0%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.49%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.37%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.35%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Jun 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - ES
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — Spain
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.1 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.61) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.