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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY fell to 4.9% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Spain Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY fell to 4.9% in October 2026, down 0.1% from September's 5.0% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 4.02%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY averaged 4.6%, vs 3.62% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.9
Actual
4.9
Consensus
5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 4.92
Actual: 4.9
Error: +0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY (Spain) was reported at 4.9% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 4.9% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.56%, ranging from 2.4% to 5% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.97%, up from the prior three at 4.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.8%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.38%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 3.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.07%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and Consumer Confidence (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY - ES
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY — Spain
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the annual change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country. It takes into account the impact of price changes on both domestic and international markets, providing a more comprehensive view of inflation. This indicator is widely used by policymakers and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy and investment strategies. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY indicates a rise in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 4.9 %, consensus 4.9 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 5 %. Before that (Sep 2026): 5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - ES Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:15 | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51 | 50.8 | 50.90 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | ES | New Car Sales YoY | 10.2 | 13.5 | 16.20 | Low | |
| 12:00 | ES | New Car Sales YoY | 10.2 | 13.5 | 16.20 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | ES | Consumer Confidence | 84.1 | 83.4 | 83.40 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | ES | Employment Change | 23.587 | 25.3 | 45.20 | High | |
| 08:00 | ES | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 9.2 | 1.2 | -2.25 | Low | |
| 08:15 | ES | S&P Global Services PMI | 58.3 | 57.2 | 58.90 | Medium | |
| 08:15 | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI | 56.8 | 56 | 57.40 | Low | |