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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.8% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Spain Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.8% in July 2026, up 0.2% from June's 3.6% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.17%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY averaged 3.58%, vs 2.93% in the prior 3-month window. Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
3.8
Actual
3.7
Consensus
3.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.73
Actual: 3.8
Error: -0.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY (Spain) was reported at 3.8% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.7% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.08%, ranging from 2.4% to 3.8% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.67%, up from the prior three at 3.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.42%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.41%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 3.15%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Employment Change (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY - ES
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY — Spain
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the annual change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country. It takes into account the impact of price changes on both domestic and international markets, providing a more comprehensive view of inflation. This indicator is widely used by policymakers and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy and investment strategies. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY indicates a rise in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.8 %, consensus 3.7 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3.6 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 3.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.43) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - ES Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | ES | CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | HICP YoY | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.75 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.35 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | HICP MoM | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.60 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.45 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | High |
| 07:00 | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.75 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.60 | High |
| 07:00 | ES | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium |
| 11:00 | ES | Business Confidence | -2.6 | -2.4 | -2.7 | -2.65 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | ES | Current Account | 1.84 | 1.88 | 4.5 | 3.17 | Low |