Spain HICP MoM: Inflation Turns Positive in February
Spain's Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rebounded in February 2026, posting a 0.4% month-over-month increase after a sharp decline in January. The latest reading aligns with market expectations and marks a notable shift in the country's short-term inflation dynamics.
Big-Picture Snapshot
- February HICP MoM: 0.4%
- January: -0.8%
- 12-month average: 0.01%
- Highest since October 2025
- Consensus estimate: 0.4%
Drivers This Month
- Energy prices: +0.12pp
- Food and non-alcoholic beverages: +0.09pp
- Transport: +0.07pp
- Clothing and footwear: +0.05pp
Policy Pulse
The February print matches the ECB's near-term target for price stability, with the HICP MoM returning to positive territory after January's contraction.
Market Lens
Spanish government bond yields edged higher on the release. The move reflects renewed inflationary pressure, though the print was fully in line with consensus and did not trigger outsized volatility.
Foundational Indicators
- December 2025: 0.3%
- November 2025: 0.0%
- October 2025: 0.0%
- February 2025: 0.2%
Drivers This Month
- Seasonal rebound in energy
- Modest uptick in food prices
Policy Pulse
With the HICP MoM at 0.4%, the reading remains consistent with the ECB's medium-term inflation objective, though the recent volatility underscores ongoing price pressures.
Market Lens
EUR/USD held steady after the data. The lack of surprise in the print kept currency markets range-bound, with traders awaiting further signals from core inflation components.
Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: The sharp rebound in February marks a clear break from the negative readings of January and late 2025. The chart highlights the return of upward price momentum, with energy and food prices driving the shift. If this trend persists, it could reinforce inflation expectations and shape the near-term policy debate.
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish (25%): Sustained energy and food price gains push HICP MoM above 0.3% in coming months.
- Base (60%): Monthly readings hover near the 0.1–0.3% range as volatility moderates.
- Bearish (15%): Renewed declines in energy or weak demand drive HICP MoM back below zero.
Policy Pulse
The ECB will monitor whether February's rebound is transitory or signals a more persistent inflation trend. The current reading supports a wait-and-see approach.
Market Lens
Spanish equities showed muted reaction. Investors appear focused on broader euro area inflation signals and upcoming central bank communications.
Closing Thoughts
Key Takeaways
- February's HICP MoM print at 0.4% ends a two-month run of negative readings.
- Energy and food prices remain the primary drivers of monthly inflation swings.
- Market and policy responses have been measured, with no immediate shift in expectations.
Data Source & Methodology
Figures are sourced from Spain's National Statistics Institute and cross-verified with the Sigmanomics database[1]. The HICP MoM measures the percentage change in the harmonised index of consumer prices compared to the previous month, using Eurostat methodology.
Key Markets Reacting to HICP MoM
Spain's inflation data can ripple across asset classes, especially when readings diverge from expectations. The following tradable symbols have shown sensitivity to HICP MoM releases, reflecting shifts in inflation outlook and monetary policy sentiment.
- AAPL: Correlation via euro area consumer demand and global tech sector flows.
- EURUSD: Directly impacted by eurozone inflation surprises and ECB policy shifts.
- BTCUSD: Reacts to inflation volatility and risk sentiment in European markets.
| Year | HICP MoM (%) | EURUSD (avg) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.1 | 1.14 |
| 2021 | 0.2 | 1.18 |
| 2022 | 0.3 | 1.05 |
| 2023 | 0.2 | 1.08 |
| 2024 | 0.1 | 1.09 |
| 2025 | 0.05 | 1.07 |
This table shows that periods of higher HICP MoM in Spain have coincided with moderate EURUSD strength, though the relationship is influenced by broader euro area trends and global risk appetite.
FAQ
- What is Spain's latest HICP MoM reading?
- Spain's HICP MoM rose 0.4% in February 2026, reversing January's -0.8% decline and matching consensus estimates.
- How does the February HICP MoM compare to recent months?
- The February print is the highest since December 2025 and marks a return to positive monthly inflation after two consecutive negative readings.
- Why is HICP MoM important for markets?
- HICP MoM tracks monthly inflation momentum, influencing ECB policy expectations and impacting currency, equity, and bond markets.
Spain's February HICP MoM rebound signals renewed inflation momentum after a volatile winter.
Updated 3/13/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Sigmanomics Economic Data Platform, Spain HICP MoM, accessed March 13, 2026.
February's 0.4% HICP MoM print reversed January's -0.8% decline and sits well above the 12-month average of 0.01%. The last time Spain posted a monthly increase of this size was in December 2025, when HICP rose 0.3%. Over the past six months, monthly readings have oscillated between -0.8% and 0.4%, highlighting a period of heightened volatility.
Compared to February 2025's 0.2% increase, the current figure signals a firmer inflation pulse. The recent swing from negative to positive territory underscores the sensitivity of headline inflation to energy and seasonal factors.