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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain HICP MoM fell to -0.1% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Spain HICP MoM fell to -0.1% in July 2026, down 0.7% from June's 0.6% reading. The print exceeded the -0.2% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.44%. Over the past 3 months, HICP MoM averaged 0.42%, vs 0.65% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
-0.2
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.21
Actual: -0.1
Error: -0.11
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HICP MoM (Spain) was reported at -0.1% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.2% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.2%, ranging from -0.8% to 1.5% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.37%, up from the prior three at 0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.47%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.37%). In July readings over the past 3 years, HICP MoM has averaged 0.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Employment Change (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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HICP MoM - ES
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About HICP MoM — Spain
DEFINITION
Spain's HICP MoM for July came in at -0.100000%, beating the -0.200000% estimate. This marks a sharp decline from June's 0.600000%, indicating a contraction in consumer price growth month-over-month. The data may influence market expectations ahead of upcoming ECB policy decisions. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.1 %, consensus -0.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ES Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | ES | CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | HICP YoY | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.75 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.35 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | HICP MoM | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.60 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.45 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | High |
| 07:00 | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.75 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.60 | High |
| 07:00 | ES | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium |
| 11:00 | ES | Business Confidence | -2.6 | -2.4 | -2.7 | -2.65 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | ES | Current Account | 1.84 | 1.88 | 4.5 | 3.17 | Low |