Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain HICP YoY climbed to 3.8% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Spain HICP YoY climbed to 3.8% in July 2026, up 0.2% from June's 3.6% reading. The reading matched the 3.7% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.17%. Over the past 3 months, HICP YoY averaged 3.58%, vs 2.93% in the prior 3-month window. HICP YoY is now the highest in 17 months.
Latest Release
3.8
Actual
3.7
Consensus
3.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.7
Actual: 3.8
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
HICP YoY (Spain) was reported at 3.8% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.7% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.08%, ranging from 2.4% to 3.8% across 22 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.67%, up from the prior three at 3.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.42%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.35%). In July readings over the past 3 years, HICP YoY has averaged 3.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Employment Change (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
HICP YoY - ES
Loading chart data...
About HICP YoY — Spain
DEFINITION
Spain's HICP YoY for July rose to 3.800%, beating the 3.700% estimate and up from June's 3.600%. This marks a clear acceleration in inflation compared to the previous month, indicating persistent price pressures. Market focus will remain on ECB policy as inflation trends above target. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.8 %, consensus 3.7 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3.6 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 3.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - ES Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | ES | CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | HICP YoY | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.75 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.35 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | HICP MoM | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.60 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.45 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | High |
| 07:00 | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.75 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.60 | High |
| 07:00 | ES | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium |
| 11:00 | ES | Business Confidence | -2.6 | -2.4 | -2.7 | -2.65 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | ES | Current Account | 1.84 | 1.88 | 4.5 | 3.17 | Low |