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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain HICP YoY climbed to 4.5% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Spain HICP YoY climbed to 4.5% in August 2026, up 0.6% from July's 3.9% reading. The reading matched the 4.6% consensus. HICP YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, HICP YoY averaged 3.7%, vs 3.3% in the prior 3-month window. HICP YoY is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
4.5
Actual
4.6
Consensus
3.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 4.63
Actual: 4.5
Error: +0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
HICP YoY (Spain) was reported at 4.5% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.6% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.24%, ranging from 2.4% to 4.5% across 21 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.07%, up from the prior three at 3.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.51%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.34%). In August readings over the past 3 years, HICP YoY has averaged 3.45%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 22) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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HICP YoY - ES
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About HICP YoY — Spain
DEFINITION
Spain's HICP YoY for August rose to 4.500%, missing the 4.600% estimate but up from July's 3.900%. This marks a significant acceleration in inflation compared to the previous month, indicating stronger price pressures. Market focus will remain on upcoming ECB policy decisions amid persistent inflationary trends. Updated 8/28/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4.5 %, consensus 4.6 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 3.9 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 3.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.42) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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