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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain HICP YoY climbed to 3.6% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Spain HICP YoY climbed to 3.6% in May 2026, up 0.1% from April's 3.5% reading. The reading matched the 3.6% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.99%. Over the past 3 months, HICP YoY averaged 3.24%, vs 2.77% in the prior 3-month window. HICP YoY is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
3.6
Actual
3.6
Consensus
3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 3.5
Actual: 3.6
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
HICP YoY (Spain) was reported at 3.6% in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.6% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.83%, ranging from 2% to 3.6% across 22 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.47%, up from the prior three at 2.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.42%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.38%). In May readings over the past 3 years, HICP YoY has averaged 2.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.07%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Jun 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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HICP YoY - ES
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About HICP YoY — Spain
DEFINITION
Spain's HICP YoY rose to 3.600000% in May, matching estimates and up from April's 3.500000%. This increase signals a continued acceleration in inflation compared to the previous month. Market focus remains on ECB policy adjustments amid persistent inflation pressures. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.6 %, consensus 3.6 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.5 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.47) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.