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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 1.0% in April 2026
EurostatQuarterlyReleased July 2026
Eurozone GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 1.0% in April 2026, released July 2026, up 0.5% from March's 0.5% reading. The print exceeded the 0.5% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.18%. Over the past 3 months, GDP Growth Rate YoY averaged 0.55%, vs 1.1% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 44th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.38
Actual: 1
Error: -0.63
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (European Union) was reported at 1% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.17%, ranging from 0.3% to 1.5% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.7%, down from the prior three at 1.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.34%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.27%). In July readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 0.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/CHF (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Jul 31) and ECB Economic Bulletin (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - EU
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/CHF (Bearish EUR, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 95.4 | 96 | 96.45 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.25 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.25 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 30.3 | 34 | 38 | 34.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.75 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -6.1 | -7.5 | -7 | -6.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 17.7 | 22.1 | 25 | 21.35 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -15.9 | -17.6 | -15.9 | -15.90 | Low |