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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 1.3% in July 2026
EurostatQuarterlyReleased October 2026
Eurozone GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 1.3% in July 2026, released October 2026, up 0.1% from June's 1.2% reading. The print exceeded the 1.1% consensus by 0.2%. GDP Growth Rate YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, GDP Growth Rate YoY averaged 1.1%, vs 0.7% in the prior 3-month window. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 9 months.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
1.1
Consensus
1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1.13
Actual: 1.2
Error: -0.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.76 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (European Union) was reported at 1.3% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.1% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.11%, ranging from 0.3% to 1.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.07%, up from the prior three at 0.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.31%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.24%). In September readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 1.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - EU
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.3 %, consensus 1.1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.76) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -3.4 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 33.9 | 34.7 | 38 | 35.95 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 24.8 | 20.8 | 22 | 23.40 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 97.5 | 97.5 | 97.20 | Medium |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -17.9 | -16.8 | -17.9 | -17.90 | Low |
| 13:15 | EU | Deposit Facility Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Interest Rate Decision | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Marginal Lending Rate | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |