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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.3% in January 2026
EurostatQuarterlyReleased June 2026
Eurozone GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.3% in January 2026, released June 2026, down 0.9% from December's 1.2% reading. The reading missed the 0.8% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.28%. Over the past 3 months, GDP Growth Rate YoY averaged 0.8%, vs 1.27% in the prior 3-month window. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 25 months.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0.8
Consensus
1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.8
Actual: 0.3
Error: +0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (European Union) was reported at 0.3% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.21%, ranging from 0.3% to 1.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.77%, down from the prior three at 1.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.34%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.27%). In June readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 0.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun 16) and Economic Sentiment (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - EU
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.