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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Industrial Production MoM fell to -0.2% in May 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased July 2026
Eurozone Industrial Production MoM fell to -0.2% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 0.5% from April's 0.3% reading. The reading missed the 0.2% consensus by 0.4%. Industrial Production MoM has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 0.15%, vs -0.83% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 34th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.33 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.13
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.33
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (European Union) was reported at -0.2% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.3%, ranging from -1.5% to 0.8% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.03%, up from the prior three at -0.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.84%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.41%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged 0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/CHF (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.33%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Jul 31) and ECB Economic Bulletin (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - EU
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About Industrial Production MoM — European Union
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/CHF (Bearish EUR, r=-0.70) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 95.4 | 96 | 96.45 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.25 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.25 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 30.3 | 34 | 38 | 34.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.75 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -6.1 | -7.5 | -7 | -6.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 17.7 | 22.1 | 25 | 21.35 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -15.9 | -17.6 | -15.9 | -15.90 | Low |