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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Industrial Production MoM fell to -0.5% in August 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased October 2026
Eurozone Industrial Production MoM fell to -0.5% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 0.2% from July's -0.3% reading. The reading missed the 0.0% consensus by 0.5%. Industrial Production MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged -0.05%, vs 0.03% in the prior 3-month window. Industrial Production MoM is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-0.5
Actual
0
Consensus
-0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.32 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.05
Actual: -0.5
Error: +0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (European Union) was reported at -0.5% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.15%, ranging from -1.5% to 0.8% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.2%, down from the prior three at 0.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.7%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.43%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged 0.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/CHF (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.33%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - EU
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About Industrial Production MoM — European Union
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.5 %, consensus 0 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.1 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/CHF (Bearish EUR, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -3.4 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 33.9 | 34.7 | 38 | 35.95 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 24.8 | 20.8 | 22 | 23.40 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 97.5 | 97.5 | 97.20 | Medium |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -17.9 | -16.8 | -17.9 | -17.90 | Low |
| 13:15 | EU | Deposit Facility Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Interest Rate Decision | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Marginal Lending Rate | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |