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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Unemployment Rate fell to 5.0% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
India Unemployment Rate fell to 5.0% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.1% from July's 5.1% reading. The reading matched expectations. Unemployment Rate has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 5.3%, vs 5.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 27th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5
Actual
5.2
Consensus
5.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.18 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 5.15
Actual: 5
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/INR | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (India) was reported at 5% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.2% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.1%, ranging from 4.7% to 5.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.2%, unchanged from the prior three.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NIFTY 50 (Bullish NIFTY 50). A secondary relationship exists with USD/INR, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23) and HSBC Services PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - IN
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About Unemployment Rate — India
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 5 %, consensus 5.2 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 5.1 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 5.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NIFTY 50 (Bullish NIFTY 50, r=0.44) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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