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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Consumer Confidence fell to 90.3% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Italy Consumer Confidence fell to 90.3% in October 2026, down 0.9% from September's 91.2% reading. The reading matched the 90.9% consensus. Consumer Confidence has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged 92.85%, vs 93.8% in the prior 3-month window. Consumer Confidence is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
90.3
Actual
90.9
Consensus
91.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 90.63
Actual: 90.3
Error: +0.33
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Italy) was reported at 90.3% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 90.9% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 91.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 94.2%, ranging from 90.3% to 97.4% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 92%, down from the prior three at 93.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.26%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.5%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Confidence has averaged 95.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Services PMI (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - IT
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About Consumer Confidence — Italy
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 90.3 %, consensus 90.9 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 91.2 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 94.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.61) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:45 | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.4 | 49.7 | 49.20 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 17:00 | IT | New Car Sales YoY | 9.9 | 4.6 | 4.35 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:45 | IT | S&P Global Composite PMI | 51 | 50.2 | 50.35 | Low | |
| 08:45 | IT | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.7 | 51 | 51.60 | Medium | |
| 13:20 | IT | New Car Sales YoY | 9.9 | 4.6 | 4.35 | Low | |