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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Consumer Confidence fell to -23.1% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Portugal Consumer Confidence fell to -23.1% in October 2026, down 2.5% from September's -20.6% reading. The reading missed the -20.4% consensus by 2.7%. Consumer Confidence has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged -20.55%, vs -25.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-23.1
Actual
-20.4
Consensus
-20.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.44 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -19.92
Actual: -23.1
Error: +3.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Portugal) was reported at -23.1% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -20.4% by 2.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of -20.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -19.84%, ranging from -27.1% to -14.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -21.4%, up from the prior three at -25.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.34%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.21%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Confidence has averaged -17.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.44%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - PT
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About Consumer Confidence — Portugal
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual -23.1 %, consensus -20.4 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -20.6 %. Before that (Aug 2026): -20.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.46) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | PT | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Industrial Production MoM | -2 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Retail Sales YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | PT | Industrial Production YoY | -3.8 | -1.6 | -1.60 | Low | |
| 11:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7.3 | -4.6 | -4.60 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:30 | PT | Budget Balance | -7.3 | -4.6 | -4.60 | Low | |