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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SerbiaSerbia Unemployment Rate fell to 7.2% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Serbia Unemployment Rate fell to 7.2% in April 2026, released August 2026, down 1.7% from March's 8.9% reading. The print came in cooler than the 8.4% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 8.73%. Unemployment Rate is now the lowest in 33 months.
Latest Release
7.2
Actual
8.4
Consensus
8.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.35 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 8.4
Actual: 7.2
Error: +1.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Serbia) was reported at 7.2% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 8.4% by 1.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 8.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 8.33%, down from the prior three at 8.6%. In August readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 7.97%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.35%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - RS
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About Unemployment Rate — Serbia
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 7.2 %, consensus 8.4 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 8.9 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 8.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - RS Events
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | RS | Current Account | -540 | -1072 | -300 | -420.00 | Low |
| 12:00 | RS | Current Account | -540 | -1072 | -300 | -420.00 | Low |