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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FinlandFinland Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 2.0% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Finland Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 2.0% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.7% from August's 1.3% reading. The print exceeded the 1.5% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.88%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 1.85%, vs 1.9% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 84th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2
Actual
1.5
Consensus
1.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.47 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.75
Actual: 2
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Finland) was reported at 2% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.5% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.05%, ranging from -0.3% to 2.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.9%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.03%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.79%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.48%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - FI
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Finland
DEFINITION
Finland's Gross Domestic Product YoY rose 2.000000% in September, beating the 1.500000% estimate but down from August's 2.300000%. The slowdown from August to September signals a moderation in economic growth momentum. Market focus now shifts to upcoming data releases and central bank policy adjustments amid this easing trend. Updated 10/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2 %, consensus 1.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 2.3 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - FI Events
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | FI | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | FI | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |