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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Balance of Trade fell to -6.9B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
France Balance of Trade fell to -6.9B in May 2026, released July 2026, down 1.5B from April's -5.4B reading. The reading missed the -5.2B consensus by 1.7B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -5.63B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -6.25B, vs -4.15B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 10 months.
Latest Release
-6.9
Actual
-5.2
Consensus
-5.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.37 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -4.75
Actual: -6.9
Error: +2.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| CAC 40 | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | INDEX | Bearish CAC 40 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (France) was reported at -6.90 billion in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -5.20 billion by 1.70 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -5.40 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -5.10 billion, ranging from -7.60 billion to -1.80 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -4.77 billion, down from the prior three at -4.30 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.61 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.20 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -7.57 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.37 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jul 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - FR
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About Balance of Trade — France
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -6.9 B, consensus -5.2 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -5.6 B. Before that (Mar 2026): -6.9 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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