Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Balance of Trade fell to -6.7B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
France Balance of Trade fell to -6.7B in July 2026, released September 2026, down 0.9B from June's -5.8B reading. The reading missed the -6B consensus by 0.7B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -5.37B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -6.35B, vs -6.1B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 46th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-6.7
Actual
-6
Consensus
-5.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.73 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -6.25
Actual: -6.7
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (France) was reported at -6.70 billion in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of -6.00 billion by 0.70 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -5.80 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -5.02 billion, ranging from -6.90 billion to -1.80 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -6.47 billion, down from the prior three at -4.07 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.49 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.21 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -6.07 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.73 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23) and S&P Global Services PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - FR
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — France
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -6.7 B, consensus -6 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -5.8 B. Before that (May 2026): -6.9 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.40) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low |