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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Budget Balance fell to -145.9B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
France Budget Balance fell to -145.9B in July 2026, released September 2026, down 39.1B from June's -106.8B reading. The reading matched the -147B consensus. Budget Balance has now declined for 7 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged -100.05B, vs -48.2B in the prior 3-month window. Budget Balance is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
-145.9
Actual
-147
Consensus
-106.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.18 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -147.03
Actual: -145.9
Error: -1.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAC 40 | ▼ Inverse | −0.81 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.80 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.78 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (France) was reported at -145.90 billion in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -147.00 billion by 1.10 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -106.80 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -107.87 billion, ranging from -157.50 billion to -9.70 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -115.33 billion, down from the prior three at -37.13 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 49.15 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 57.41 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Budget Balance has averaged -148.27 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with CAC 40 (Bearish CAC 40). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.18 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23) and S&P Global Services PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Budget Balance - FR
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About Budget Balance — France
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -145.9 B, consensus -147 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -106.8 B. Before that (May 2026): -93.3 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with CAC 40 (Bearish CAC 40, r=-0.81) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low |