Current Account - FR Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
France Current Account
1.1
Actual
-2
Consensus
-1.6
Previous
France’s Current Account posted a surprising €1.10 billion surplus in December 2025, sharply beating the €2 billion deficit estimate and reversing November’s €1.60 billion deficit. This €2.70 billion month-on-month improvement signals a strong expansion in external competitiveness after a prolonged deficit streak. Looking ahead, the surplus supports the ECB’s cautious monetary policy stance, while markets anticipate continued euro strength amid geopolitical and energy price uncertainties. Updated 12/5/25
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France’s Current Account Surges to Surplus: December 2025 Analysis
Key Takeaways: France’s current account balance swung sharply to a €1.10 billion surplus in December 2025, defying expectations of a €2 billion deficit. This marks a significant improvement from the previous month’s €1.60 billion deficit and the average deficit of €-1.90 billion over the past year. The rebound reflects stronger export performance, easing energy costs, and a resilient euro. However, geopolitical tensions and tightening monetary policy pose risks ahead. Market reactions were swift, with the EUR/USD strengthening and bond yields adjusting to the improved external position.
The latest data from the Sigmanomics database reveals a remarkable turnaround in France’s current account for December 2025. The balance posted a €1.10 billion surplus, well above the consensus estimate of a €2 billion deficit and a sharp improvement from November’s €1.60 billion deficit. This shift signals a strengthening external position for France amid a complex global backdrop.
Drivers this month
Export growth accelerated by 3.20% MoM, driven by machinery and automotive sectors.
Energy import costs declined 5.50% YoY, easing pressure on the trade balance.
Services surplus expanded due to tourism rebound and financial services.
Policy pulse
The current account surplus aligns with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) tightening cycle, which has strengthened the euro and curbed inflationary pressures. The improved external balance supports the ECB’s cautious stance on further rate hikes.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD rose 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting confidence in France’s external resilience. French 10-year bond yields tightened by 5 basis points, signaling reduced risk premia.
France’s current account balance is a key macroeconomic indicator reflecting cross-border trade, income flows, and transfers. The December 2025 surplus of €1.10 billion contrasts sharply with the average deficit of €-1.90 billion recorded over the past 12 months, underscoring a notable improvement in external competitiveness.
Historical comparisons
December 2025 surplus of €1.10 billion vs. December 2024 deficit of €-2.20 billion.
November 2025 deficit of €-1.60 billion, marking a €2.70 billion month-on-month swing.
Average current account deficit over the past year stands at €-1.90 billion.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The ECB’s recent rate hikes have bolstered the euro, improving France’s terms of trade. Tighter financial conditions have moderated domestic demand, reducing import growth and supporting the current account surplus.
Fiscal policy & government budget
France’s fiscal stance remains moderately expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit target of 3.20% of GDP. However, improved external balances help offset fiscal pressures by stabilizing the currency and lowering external financing costs.
The current account balance for December 2025 recorded a €1.10 billion surplus, a stark contrast to November’s €1.60 billion deficit and well above the 12-month average deficit of €-1.90 billion. This reversal is the largest monthly improvement since June 2025, when the balance briefly turned positive at €1.50 billion.
Exports rose sharply by 3.20% MoM, while imports contracted 1.10%, driven by lower energy prices and subdued domestic demand. The services surplus also expanded by 0.40 billion euros, reflecting a strong tourism season and financial services growth.
Trade in goods remains the dominant driver, with machinery and automotive exports leading gains. The energy import bill fell by 5.50% YoY, easing the trade deficit component. Income and transfers remained broadly stable, contributing marginally to the surplus.
This chart highlights a strong upward trend in France’s current account balance, reversing a six-month deficit streak. The improvement signals enhanced external competitiveness and resilience to global shocks, positioning France favorably for 2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD strengthened by 0.30%, reflecting renewed investor confidence. French government bond yields tightened by 5 basis points, indicating reduced sovereign risk premia. Equity markets showed mild gains, particularly in export-oriented sectors.
Looking ahead, France’s current account trajectory depends on several factors, including global demand, energy prices, and geopolitical developments. The recent surplus provides a buffer but also raises questions about sustainability amid tightening monetary policy and external risks.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
Continued export growth driven by innovation and EU trade agreements.
Energy prices stabilize or decline, further improving trade balance.
Euro remains stable or strengthens, supporting external competitiveness.
Base scenario (50% probability)
Moderate export growth offset by rising import demand as domestic recovery gains pace.
Energy prices fluctuate but remain manageable.
Monetary policy tightening slows but does not reverse.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
Geopolitical tensions disrupt trade flows, especially with key partners.
Energy prices spike sharply, worsening the trade deficit.
Euro weakens due to ECB policy divergence or global risk-off sentiment.
Risks & opportunities
Upside risks include faster-than-expected global recovery and trade liberalization. Downside risks stem from renewed geopolitical conflicts, inflationary shocks, and tighter global financial conditions.
France’s current account surplus in December 2025 marks a pivotal moment after a prolonged deficit period. The improvement reflects a combination of stronger exports, easing energy costs, and favorable currency dynamics. While this bodes well for external stability, vigilance is required given ongoing geopolitical and monetary uncertainties.
Policymakers should leverage this external strength to support sustainable growth and fiscal consolidation. Market participants will watch closely for signs of whether this surplus can be maintained amid evolving global conditions.
Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account
The current account balance is a critical barometer for currency strength, sovereign risk, and export-driven equities. The following tradable symbols historically correlate with France’s external balance shifts:
EURUSD – The euro-dollar pair reacts strongly to France’s external position, influencing ECB policy expectations.
SIE – Siemens, a proxy for European industrial exports, often tracks export-driven current account changes.
MC – LVMH, a luxury goods giant, benefits from strong services and export sectors in France.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s risk sentiment often shifts with macroeconomic stability and currency fluctuations.
USDCAD – Reflects commodity price shifts that indirectly impact France’s energy import costs and trade balance.
Insight: Since 2020, France’s current account balance and EUR/USD have shown a strong inverse correlation. Periods of current account surplus coincide with EUR/USD appreciation, highlighting the currency’s sensitivity to external trade dynamics.
FAQs
What is the significance of France’s current account surplus?
The surplus indicates stronger external competitiveness and improved trade and income balances, supporting economic stability.
How does the current account affect monetary policy?
A surplus can ease inflationary pressures and support central bank decisions to moderate interest rate hikes.
What risks could reverse the current account improvement?
Geopolitical tensions, energy price shocks, and currency depreciation pose key downside risks.
Takeaway: France’s current account surplus signals renewed external strength, but sustaining this momentum requires navigating complex global risks and domestic policy challenges.
Economic Calendar - FR Events
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
1.9
2.3
1.8
1.80
High
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.50
Medium
06:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
0.3
-0.6
0.5
0.58
Low
05:30
FR
Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0
0.3
0.1
0.13
Low
05:30
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0
0.3
0
-0.02
Low
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
-26.1
18.2
12
16.85
Medium
10:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2808.4
2834.5
2846.5
2842.78
Low
06:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
92
91
92
92.17
Medium
Friday, August 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Business Confidence
99
95
96
95.67
Medium
06:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
97
94
96
95.67
Low
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
42.1
44
44.4
43.72
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
55
50.1
50.3
51.13
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
52.7
49.1
49.1
49.73
Medium
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.10
Medium
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.30
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.10
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.60
Low
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
FR
Unemployment Rate
7.3
7.5
7.5
7.50
Medium
Wednesday, August 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-6.1
-7.7
-7.5
-7.77
Medium
06:45
FR
Imports
57.7
57.8
61.2
60.67
Low
06:45
FR
Exports
51.7
50
51.7
51.52
Low
06:45
FR
Current Account
-2.6
-2.5
-1.4
-2.47
Low
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
39.7
41
41.5
39.77
Low
06:45
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0
0.3
0.2
0.18
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
49.1
48.8
49.5
50.13
Low
07:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
50.1
49.6
50.7
51.53
High
Friday, August 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Budget Balance
-103.5
-113.5
-130
-130.60
Low
06:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
0.8
-2.2
1
0.70
Medium
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
44
45.4
44.1
43.42
High
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.40
High
06:45
FR
PPI YoY
-6
-6.7
2.2
0.18
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.30
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.30
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.70
Low
06:45
FR
PPI MoM
-0.3
-1.6
0.4
-0.25
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.1
1.5
0.8
0.88
High
05:30
FR
Household Consumption MoM
-0.5
0.8
0.2
0.28
Low
05:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.23
High
Friday, July 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
91
90
90
90.17
Medium
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
18.2
40.9
8.9
13.75
Medium
10:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2834.5
2816.3
2825
2821.28
Low
06:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
94
99
98
97.67
Low
06:45
FR
Business Confidence
95
99
99
98.67
Medium
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
49.5
48.8
48.9
49.53
Medium
07:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
44.1
45.4
45.8
45.12
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
50.7
49.6
49.8
50.63
High
Tuesday, July 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
FR
Current Account
-3.1
-3.5
-1.2
-2.27
Low
Friday, July 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.1
0.10
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.50
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.3
2.1
2.10
Medium
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
-2.1
0.6
-0.5
-0.80
Medium
06:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-8
-7.5
-7.2
-7.47
Medium
Thursday, July 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
41
43.4
49
47.27
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
FR
New Car Registrations YoY
-4.8
-2.9
2.5
-1.47
Low
07:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
49.6
49.3
48.8
49.63
High
07:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
48.8
48.9
48.2
48.83
Low
06:45
FR
Budget Balance
-113.5
-91.6
-115
-115.60
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.4
46.4
45.3
44.62
High
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
1.5
-0.9
0.1
0.18
Low
06:45
FR
PPI YoY
-6.7
-6.7
-6.1
-8.12
Low
06:45
FR
PPI MoM
-1.4
-3.6
-0.7
-1.35
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.50
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.1
0.10
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.50
High
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2816.3
2775.4
2810
2806.28
Low
10:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
40.9
-36.8
-17
-12.15
Medium
06:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
89
90
89
89.17
Medium
Friday, June 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
48.8
49.3
50
50.83
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.3
46.4
46.8
46.12
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
48.2
48.9
49.5
50.13
Medium
06:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
99
99
98
97.67
Low
06:45
FR
Business Confidence
99
99
100
99.67
Medium
Friday, June 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.5
0
0.00
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.4
2.7
2.70
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.20
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.20
Medium
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Exports
51.2
52.1
52.6
52.42
Low
06:45
FR
Current Account
-1.8
0.6
1.5
0.43
Low
06:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-7.6
-5.4
-5.4
-5.67
Medium
06:45
FR
Imports
58.8
57.5
57.7
57.17
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
43.4
41.5
44
42.27
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
49.3
51.3
49.4
50.23
High
07:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
48.9
50.5
49.1
49.73
Low
06:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
0.5
-0.2
0.5
0.20
Medium
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Budget Balance
-91.6
-52.8
-60
-60.60
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
46.4
45.3
46.7
46.02
High
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.20
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.5
0.2
0.20
Medium
06:45
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.23
Medium
06:45
FR
PPI MoM
-3.6
-1
-1.1
-1.75
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.4
2.5
2.50
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.40
High
06:45
FR
PPI YoY
-6.8
8.3
-3.5
-5.52
Low
06:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
-0.8
0.5
0.2
0.28
Low
06:45
FR
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.1
0.8
1.1
1.18
Medium
05:30
FR
Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0.3
0
0.1
0.13
Low
05:30
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0.3
-0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
90
90
91
91.17
Medium
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2775.4
2812.2
2810.9
2807.18
Low
10:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
-36.8
-8.4
-12
-7.15
Medium
Friday, May 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Business Confidence
99
100
100
99.67
Medium
06:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
99
99
100
99.67
Low
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
46.7
45.3
45.8
45.12
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
49.1
50.5
51
51.63
Medium
07:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
49.4
51.3
51.7
52.53
High
Friday, May 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
FR
Unemployment Rate
7.5
7.5
7.4
7.40
Medium
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.50
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.40
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.60
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.20
Medium
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
41.5
41
43
41.27
Low
06:45
FR
Imports
57.7
56.4
58.5
57.97
Low
06:45
FR
Exports
52.2
50.8
51.9
51.72
Low
06:45
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0.2
-0.1
0
-0.02
Low
06:45
FR
Current Account
1.3
0.3
-1.9
-2.97
Low
06:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-5.5
-5.6
-5
-5.27
Medium
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
51.3
48.3
50.5
51.33
High
07:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
50.5
48.3
49.9
50.53
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
-0.3
0.2
0.3
0.00
Medium
06:45
FR
Budget Balance
-52.8
-44
-52
-52.60
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.50
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.20
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.3
2.1
2.10
High
06:45
FR
PPI MoM
-0.2
-1.7
-0.5
-1.15
Low
06:45
FR
PPI YoY
-7.5
-5.5
-7.7
-9.72
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.50
Low
05:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.1
0.8
0.9
0.98
High
05:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.13
High
05:30
FR
Household Consumption MoM
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.28
Low
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
90
91
92
92.17
Medium
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2812.2
2820.6
2801.9
2798.18
Low
10:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
-8.4
-6.1
-10
-5.15
Medium
06:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
99
100
100
99.67
Low
06:45
FR
Business Confidence
100
103
102
101.67
Medium
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
49.9
48.3
49
49.63
Medium
07:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
44.9
46.2
44.9
44.22
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
50.5
48.3
48.9
49.73
High
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
3.2
2.4
2.40
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.9
0.3
0.30
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.9
0.2
0.20
Medium
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
3
2.3
2.30
Medium
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Exports
51.1
48.8
49.1
48.92
Low
06:45
FR
Current Account
0.9
-0.5
-1.3
-2.37
Low
06:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-5.2
-7.2
-7
-7.27
Medium
06:45
FR
Imports
56.296
56.048
55.7
55.17
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
41
41.9
44
42.27
Low
06:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
0.2
-0.9
0.5
0.20
Medium
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:15
FR
New Car Registrations YoY
-1.5
13
16
12.03
Low
07:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
48.3
48.4
47.8
48.63
High
07:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
48.3
48.1
47.7
48.33
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Budget Balance
-44.03
-25.74
-54.4
-55.00
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
46.2
47.1
45.8
45.12
High
Friday, March 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
0
-0.6
0.2
0.28
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
-15.8
2.5
12.3
17.15
Medium
11:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2811.9
2827.7
2840
2836.28
Low
07:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
91
90
90
90.17
Medium
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
47.8
48.4
48.7
49.53
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.8
47.1
47.5
46.82
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
47.7
48.1
48.6
49.23
Medium
07:45
FR
Business Confidence
102
101
100
99.67
Medium
07:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
100
98
97
96.67
Low
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.10
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
3
3.1
2.9
2.90
Medium
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.8
-0.2
0.8
0.80
Medium
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.9
-0.2
0.9
0.90
Low
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-7.388
-6.421
-6.5
-6.77
Medium
07:45
FR
Imports
56.199
56.817
56.8
56.27
Low
07:45
FR
Current Account
-1
-0.2
-1.4
-2.47
Low
07:45
FR
Exports
48.811
50.396
50.6
50.42
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
41.9
39.6
41
39.27
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
48.1
44.6
47.7
48.33
Low
08:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
48.4
45.4
48
48.83
High
07:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
-1.1
0.4
-0.1
-0.40
Medium
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:25
FR
New Car Registrations YoY
13
9.2
12
8.03
Low
07:45
FR
Budget Balance
-25.74
-173.26
-27
-27.60
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
47.1
43.1
46.8
46.12
High
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.9
-0.2
0.7
0.70
Low
07:45
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
0
0
0.03
Medium
07:45
FR
PPI MoM
-1.3
-0.1
0.3
-0.35
Low
07:45
FR
PPI YoY
-5.1
-1.3
-3.3
-5.32
Low
07:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
-0.3
0.3
-0.2
-0.12
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.1
2.7
2.70
High
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.8
-0.2
0.7
0.70
Medium
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3.4
3
3.00
Low
07:45
FR
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.78
Medium
06:30
FR
Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0
0.2
-0.1
-0.07
Low
06:30
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
-0.1
0.2
0
-0.02
Low
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
2.5
-1.4
-6.2
-1.35
Medium
11:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2827.7
2825.2
2819
2815.28
Low
07:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
89
91
92
92.17
Medium
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
48
45.4
45.6
46.43
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
46.8
43.1
43.5
42.82
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
47.7
44.6
45
45.63
Medium
07:45
FR
Business Confidence
100
98
99
98.67
Medium
07:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
98
99
99
98.67
Low
Friday, February 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
4.1
3.4
3.40
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.3
0.1
-0.2
-0.20
Medium
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.20
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3.7
3.1
3.10
Medium
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
FR
Unemployment Rate
7.5
7.5
7.4
7.40
Medium
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Current Account
-0.7
-2.9
-2.7
-3.77
Low
07:45
FR
Exports
50.192
49.451
49.1
48.92
Low
07:45
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0
0.1
-0.1
-0.12
Low
07:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-6.829
-5.939
-6
-6.27
Medium
07:45
FR
Imports
57.021
55.395
54.9
54.37
Low
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
39.6
42.6
43.4
41.67
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
45.4
45.7
45
45.83
High
08:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
44.6
44.8
44.2
44.83
Low
Friday, February 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Budget Balance
-173.26
-197.97
-173
-173.60
Low
07:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
1.1
0.5
0.2
-0.10
Medium
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
43.1
42.1
43.2
42.52
High
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
PPI MoM
0.1
2.3
0.5
-0.15
Low
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.20
Low
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
4.1
3.3
3.30
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.1
-0.4
-0.40
Medium
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3.7
2.9
2.90
High
07:45
FR
PPI YoY
-0.9
0.3
-0.5
-2.52
Low
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.7
0.6
0.2
0.28
High
06:30
FR
Household Consumption MoM
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.38
Low
06:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0
0
0
0.03
High
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
91
89
90
90.17
Medium
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
-1.4
5.2
9.4
14.25
Medium
11:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2825.2
2826.6
2836
2832.28
Low
07:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
98
98
98
97.67
Low
07:45
FR
Business Confidence
99
99
100
99.67
Medium
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
45
45.7
46
46.83
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
43.2
42.1
42.5
41.82
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
44.2
44.8
45.2
45.83
Medium
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Budget Balance
-197.97
-177.71
-185
-185.60
Low
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
0.7
-0.9
-0.1
-0.02
Low
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.10
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
3.7
3.5
3.7
3.70
Medium
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
3.9
4.1
4.10
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.10
Medium
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
0.5
-0.3
0
-0.30
Medium
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-5.943
-8.455
-7.9
-8.17
Medium
07:45
FR
Exports
49.451
49.745
48.9
48.72
Low
07:45
FR
Current Account
-2.8
-3.4
-3.2
-4.27
Low
07:45
FR
Imports
55.395
58.2
57.7
57.17
Low
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
FR
S&P Global Construction PMI
42.6
44.6
45.5
44.05
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:55
FR
New Car Registrations YoY
14.5
14
12
8.03
Low
08:50
FR
S&P Global Composite PMI
44.8
44.6
43.7
44.25
Low
08:50
FR
S&P Global Services PMI
45.7
45.4
44.3
45.00
Medium
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
3.9
4.1
4.10
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.20
Medium
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
3.7
3.5
3.8
3.80
High
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.30
Low
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:50
FR
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
42.1
42.9
42
42.05
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Current Account in France Posts Unexpected €1.10 Billion Surplus December 2025 Current Account Shows Strong Rebound The Current Account measures the net flow of goods, services, income, and transfers between France and the rest of the world. In December 2025, France’s Current Account (FR) swung to a €1.10 billion surplus, reversing the prior month’s €1.60 billion deficit and beating forecasts of a €2 billion shortfall. This marks a sharp turnaround from the average deficit near €-1.90 billion over the past year. The improvement was driven by a 3.20% rise in exports, especially in machinery and automotive sectors, alongside a 5.50% decline in energy import costs. According to economist Claire Dubois, “This Current Account surplus reflects France’s growing external resilience amid tightening ECB policy and easing global energy pressures.” The euro strengthened modestly after the release, while bond yields tightened, signaling market confidence in France’s external position despite ongoing geopolitical risks.
The current account balance for December 2025 recorded a €1.10 billion surplus, a stark contrast to November’s €1.60 billion deficit and well above the 12-month average deficit of €-1.90 billion. This reversal is the largest monthly improvement since June 2025, when the balance briefly turned positive at €1.50 billion.
Exports rose sharply by 3.20% MoM, while imports contracted 1.10%, driven by lower energy prices and subdued domestic demand. The services surplus also expanded by 0.40 billion euros, reflecting a strong tourism season and financial services growth.