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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to -0.1% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
France Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to -0.1% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, down 0.3% from December's 0.2% reading. The reading missed the 0.0% consensus by 0.1%. Gross Domestic Product QoQ has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
0
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0
Actual: -0.1
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (France) was reported at -0.1% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.27%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.5% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.1%, down from the prior three at 0.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - FR
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — France
DEFINITION
France's Gross Domestic Product QoQ contracted by -0.100000% in Q1 2026, missing the 0.000000% estimate and reversing from Q4 2025's 0.200000% growth. This decline signals a shift from expansion to contraction in the French economy between the two quarters. Market focus will remain on upcoming ECB policy decisions amid this downturn. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -0.1 %, consensus 0 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.