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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 0.5% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
France Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 0.5% in April 2026, released August 2026, down 0.4% from March's 0.9% reading. The reading missed the 0.7% consensus by 0.2%. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the lowest in 18 months.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.7
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.65
Actual: 0.5
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAC 40 | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (France) was reported at 0.5% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.7% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.87%, ranging from 0.5% to 1.1% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.7%, down from the prior three at 1.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with CAC 40 (Bearish CAC 40). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, negatively correlated (Bearish DAX). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23) and S&P Global Services PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - FR
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — France
DEFINITION
France's Gross Domestic Product YoY came in at 0.50% for August, missing the 0.70% estimate. This marks a decline from July's 0.70%, continuing the slowdown from earlier months. The weaker growth underscores ongoing economic challenges as markets weigh the central bank's next moves. Updated 8/28/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.7 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with CAC 40 (Bearish CAC 40, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low |