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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 0.9% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
France Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 0.9% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 0.4% from December's 1.3% reading. The reading missed the 1.1% consensus by 0.2%. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.3%. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
0.9
Actual
1.1
Consensus
1.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.1
Actual: 0.9
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (France) was reported at 0.9% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.1% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.91%, ranging from 0.7% to 1.1% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.03%, up from the prior three at 0.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - FR
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — France
DEFINITION
France's Gross Domestic Product YoY came in at 0.900000% for April, missing the 1.100000% estimate and down from March's 1.300000%. This marks a slowdown in annual growth, indicating a deceleration in economic expansion compared to the previous month. Market focus will remain on upcoming data releases and central bank signals amid this cooling trend. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.9 %, consensus 1.1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 1.1 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 1.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR, r=0.56) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.