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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 0.7% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
France Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 0.7% in April 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1% from March's 0.8% reading. The reading missed the 0.8% consensus by 0.1%. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
0.7
Actual
0.8
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.7
Actual: 0.7
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (France) was reported at 0.7% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.91%, ranging from 0.7% to 1.1% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.9%, down from the prior three at 0.97%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 5) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 7).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - FR
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — France
DEFINITION
France's Gross Domestic Product YoY came in at 0.700000% for June, missing the 0.800000% estimate. This represents a decline from May's 0.900000%, indicating a slowdown in annual economic growth. The weaker reading may influence market expectations ahead of upcoming ECB policy decisions. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.7 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 1.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR, r=0.56) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:30 | FR | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | Consumer Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.75 | High |
| 05:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High |
| 05:30 | FR | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | Household Consumption MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.25 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.6 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.50 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | CPI MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 06:45 | FR | HICP YoY | 2.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.25 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | HICP MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.95 | High |