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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.4% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
France Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.4% in October 2026, up 0.7% from September's -0.3% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.3% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.28%, vs 0.23% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 59th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.3
Consensus
-0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.34
Actual: -0.3
Error: -0.04
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (France) was reported at 0.4% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.19%, ranging from -0.4% to 1.2% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0%, down from the prior three at 0.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.49%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.45%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged -0.35%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Nov 5) and Balance of Trade (Nov 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - FR
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — France
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -0.3 %. Before that (Sep 2026): -0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | -0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.00 | High |
| 06:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate YoY | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.10 | High |
| 06:30 | FR | Household Consumption MoM | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.20 | Low |
| 06:30 | FR | Consumer Spending MoM | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.20 | Medium |
| 07:45 | FR | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.7 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.33 | Medium |
| 07:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.73 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.8 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.73 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.33 | High |