Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.1% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
France Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.1% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 1.1% from April's 1.2% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.42%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.94%, vs 0.08% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 42nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.1
Consensus
1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.08
Actual: 0.1
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| CAC 40 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Bearish CAC 40 | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (France) was reported at 0.1% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.1% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.14%, ranging from -1.1% to 1.2% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.47%, down from the prior three at 0.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.55%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.48%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.09%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - FR
Loading chart data...
About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — France
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.1 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.54) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.