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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.8% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
France Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.8% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.2% from July's 0.6% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.58%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.28%, vs 0.8% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 86th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.8
Actual
0.8
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.83
Actual: 0.8
Error: +0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| CAC 40 | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (France) was reported at 0.8% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.8% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.13%, ranging from -1.1% to 1.2% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.73%, up from the prior three at 0%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.6%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.48%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.01%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23) and S&P Global Services PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - FR
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — France
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.8 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low |