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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.6% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
France Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.6% in July 2026, up 0.9% from June's -0.3% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.3% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.38%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.16%, vs 0.53% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 81st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.6
Actual
0.3
Consensus
-0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.36
Actual: -0.3
Error: -0.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| CAC 40 | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (France) was reported at 0.6% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.07%, ranging from -1.1% to 1.2% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.56%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.49%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.14%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 5) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 7).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - FR
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — France
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.6 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.3 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.51) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:30 | FR | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | Consumer Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.75 | High |
| 05:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High |
| 05:30 | FR | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | Household Consumption MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.95 | High |
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.25 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.6 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.50 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | CPI MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 06:45 | FR | HICP YoY | 2.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.25 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | HICP MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |